Anthony Franco's NL Central comments

Discuss all things Cardinals Baseball
Post Reply
User avatar
mikechamp
Hall Of Famer
Posts: 10132
Joined: April 17 06, 5:05 pm
Location: Southwestern Illinois

Anthony Franco's NL Central comments

Post by mikechamp »

These comments came from a chat with MLB Trade Rumors' Anthony Franco that occurred on April 13. (You can find him on Twitter at @affranco10 if you really want to ask him something.) Sorry for the delay; I took some time away from my computer.

A smattering of questions for most of the division. I included 3 bonus Q&As this time.

The link to the entire chat can be found here: https://www.jotcast.com/chat/mlbtr-chat ... 12875.html

-----------------------------------------------------------------
What do you think of this Cubs team? 80 win team?

Anthony Franco
Under, maybe 75? The back of the rotation's rough, doubt Ortega and Wisdom repeat last year's performance.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
At this point, Nolan Arenado is pretty clear the front runner for NL MVP. Think he can keep it up?

Anthony Franco
There is no such thing as a frontrunner for MVP a week into the season.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Think Happ will get traded? One more year of arb and I don't think he's a core piece. Lots of clubs could use him...

Anthony Franco
Yeah I could see that, kind of depends where they sit in July. They didn't trade Contreras before the season and obviously aren't punting on the year.
If they're hanging around the playoff picture, there probably won't be enough demand for Happ to make it worthwhile. But if they're 6-8 games out at that point, sure.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
I know STL is always shy about trading blue chip prospects, but with it being Pujols’ and Yadi’s final season, do they really go for it if they’re in contention?

Anthony Franco
Another one that's tough to answer without knowing what the roster will look like in July, but I'm skeptical they'll be super aggressive.

Part of the reason they've been fairly cautious and just added around the margins is that the team is pretty solid across the board and they don't have many glaring needs.

Maybe an injury opens that up or something, but right now, I don't think there are any must-upgrade spots on the roster.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
I hate that teams don’t try to compete every year. Look at the Reds. Can’t anything be done to avoid tanking?

Anthony Franco
The Reds aren't tanking. Ownership got cheap and they cut payroll, but they're not trying to lose to inflate their draft stock for multiple years.

So I think it's two separate questions. Are there things to be done to legislate out multi-rebuilds? Maybe. Flip the draft order so the best non-playoff teams pick first and have the highest bonus pool, award teams extra draft choices for making the playoffs.

These things reduce the baseball incentive for rebuilds and make it harder for teams like the Pirates or Orioles to have success with what they're currently trying.

Legislating out just not committing fully when the young talent bubbles up, like the Reds and Guardians did this winter? I think that's harder.
A salary floor would be a direct measure for forcing spending, but the league isn't going to do that with a cap.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Early thoughts on Seiya Suzuki?

Anthony Franco
He's been great.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Does Gorman and Herrera get it done for John Means?

Anthony Franco
I can't see the Cards giving up that much.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Could a team essentially just trade money for a player? E.g. many teams don’t have the farm for B. Reynolds but could they just buy him from the Pirates?

Anthony Franco
You do sometimes see guys traded for cash consideration, but those are always super fringy players.

I'm sure there's some sort of limit, but I don't know it off the top of my head. But no, the Pirates can't trade Reynolds to the Yankees for $200MM.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Who would you consider to be a dark-horse contender to win the World Series this season?

Anthony Franco
Anyone who makes the playoffs is a World Series contender.

Are the Twins a dark-horse playoff contender? Reds maybe?
I don't think either of those teams is winning the World Series, but could they grab a Wild Card spot and make a run? Sure.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
-----------------------------------------------------------------
How quickly do internal/external evaluations of prospects change among teams, and among media, over the course of the first couple months? Does a strong April bump up a young guy's trade value significantly into May?

Anthony Franco
I'm sure it varies team-to-team. Most or all have projection models and things of that nature that'll fluctuate. How much probably depends more on if there's a process change that looks like it might explain it.
If a pitcher adds a new pitch or throws 3 MPH harder and shoves for a month, it's pretty easy to buy that he's just better now.

I'd be less inclined to buy small sample breakouts for pitchers whose stuff looks mostly the same or, generally speaking, for hitters.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
How soon do you start looking at slash lines more seriously?

Anthony Franco
There's no specific cut-off date before which nothing's meaningful and after which everything's meaningful, unfortunately.

From a broad framework perspective, I'll start looking at process oriented stuff -- how often is a guy chasing pitches outside the strike zone, his contact rate -- by like the end of April.
If those things are different, I'll put more stock into changes in the bottom line numbers.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Is the difference in reaction times for a 90mph pitch vs a 95mph pitch really that significant? Do you think teams may be overlooking command and deception?

Anthony Franco
All things being equal, there's a huge difference between 90 and 95 that'll be borne out in swing-and-miss and home run rates.

But of course, throwing 95 isn't alone sufficient. Command and deception are more difficult to quantify, so while they're meaningful, I think teams are going to be skeptical about their ability to accurately parse out command or deception.

Broadly speaking, we have an idea. But we can't rank pitchers by deception.

To your point, I think we've seen teams place a ton of emphasis on movement in recent years as that became more measurable. How backspinning fastballs at the top of the strike zone, particularly from a lower release height, can help that pitch play above its velocity, etc.
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Tags:

User avatar
heyzeus
Everday Unicorn
Posts: 41335
Joined: April 21 06, 10:14 am
Location: Austin, TX
Contact:

Re: Anthony Franco's NL Central comments

Post by heyzeus »

lol yeah we're not trading Gorman alone for John Means, not to mention Gorman and Herrera.

User avatar
CardsofSTL
All Hail the GDT Master
Posts: 47810
Joined: April 26 11, 6:06 am
Location: Columbus, OH

Re: Anthony Franco's NL Central comments

Post by CardsofSTL »

heyzeus wrote:
April 18 22, 1:50 pm
lol yeah we're not trading Gorman alone for John Means, not to mention Gorman and Herrera.
Glad that guy isn't the GM.

Online
User avatar
Leroy
a bad penny always turns up
Posts: 25111
Joined: April 17 06, 12:27 pm
Location: Hanging out with my redneck, white socks and Blue Ribbon beer.
Contact:

Re: Anthony Franco's NL Central comments

Post by Leroy »

At this point, Nolan Arenado is pretty clear the front runner for NL MVP. Think he can keep it up?
Ok, which one of you maroons asked this?

User avatar
a_smith
Perennial All-Star
Posts: 4157
Joined: September 20 06, 10:55 am

Re: Anthony Franco's NL Central comments

Post by a_smith »

heyzeus wrote:
April 18 22, 1:50 pm
lol yeah we're not trading Gorman alone for John Means, not to mention Gorman and Herrera.
especially since Means is on the 60day DL with a sprained elbow.

User avatar
TheoSqua
Next Gen Wart
Posts: 8894
Joined: April 22 06, 6:53 pm
Location: St. Louis
Contact:

Re: Anthony Franco's NL Central comments

Post by TheoSqua »

I appreciate the one guy talking about the MVP race 8 games into the season.

User avatar
heyzeus
Everday Unicorn
Posts: 41335
Joined: April 21 06, 10:14 am
Location: Austin, TX
Contact:

Re: Anthony Franco's NL Central comments

Post by heyzeus »

TheoSqua wrote:
April 18 22, 10:13 pm
I appreciate the one guy talking about the MVP race 8 games into the season.
I mean, this is when you know if your season is over (at least in terms of the playoffs) so why not crown the MVP.

User avatar
Popeye_Card
GRB's most intelligent & humble poster
Posts: 29873
Joined: April 17 06, 11:25 am

Re: Anthony Franco's NL Central comments

Post by Popeye_Card »

I just wish somebody would finally ask if the Pirates are going to trade Bryan Reynolds.

User avatar
MrCrowesGarden
'Burb Boy
Posts: 23630
Joined: July 9 06, 11:33 am
Location: Out of the Loop

Re: Anthony Franco's NL Central comments

Post by MrCrowesGarden »

There are only two trade offers that exist online: John Gall for Ohtani and Trout or Gorman, Walker, Liberatore and Herrera for Kris Bubic.

User avatar
heyzeus
Everday Unicorn
Posts: 41335
Joined: April 21 06, 10:14 am
Location: Austin, TX
Contact:

Re: Anthony Franco's NL Central comments

Post by heyzeus »

a_smith wrote:
April 18 22, 3:51 pm
heyzeus wrote:
April 18 22, 1:50 pm
lol yeah we're not trading Gorman alone for John Means, not to mention Gorman and Herrera.
especially since Means is on the 60day DL with a sprained elbow.
And now he's having TJ surgery, so we should probably throw in Walker.

Post Reply