Anthony Franco's NL Central comments
- mikechamp
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Anthony Franco's NL Central comments
These comments came from a chat with MLB Trade Rumors' Anthony Franco that occurred on April 13. (You can find him on Twitter at @affranco10 if you really want to ask him something.) Sorry for the delay; I took some time away from my computer.
A smattering of questions for most of the division. I included 3 bonus Q&As this time.
The link to the entire chat can be found here: https://www.jotcast.com/chat/mlbtr-chat ... 12875.html
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What do you think of this Cubs team? 80 win team?
Anthony Franco
Under, maybe 75? The back of the rotation's rough, doubt Ortega and Wisdom repeat last year's performance.
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At this point, Nolan Arenado is pretty clear the front runner for NL MVP. Think he can keep it up?
Anthony Franco
There is no such thing as a frontrunner for MVP a week into the season.
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Think Happ will get traded? One more year of arb and I don't think he's a core piece. Lots of clubs could use him...
Anthony Franco
Yeah I could see that, kind of depends where they sit in July. They didn't trade Contreras before the season and obviously aren't punting on the year.
If they're hanging around the playoff picture, there probably won't be enough demand for Happ to make it worthwhile. But if they're 6-8 games out at that point, sure.
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I know STL is always shy about trading blue chip prospects, but with it being Pujols’ and Yadi’s final season, do they really go for it if they’re in contention?
Anthony Franco
Another one that's tough to answer without knowing what the roster will look like in July, but I'm skeptical they'll be super aggressive.
Part of the reason they've been fairly cautious and just added around the margins is that the team is pretty solid across the board and they don't have many glaring needs.
Maybe an injury opens that up or something, but right now, I don't think there are any must-upgrade spots on the roster.
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I hate that teams don’t try to compete every year. Look at the Reds. Can’t anything be done to avoid tanking?
Anthony Franco
The Reds aren't tanking. Ownership got cheap and they cut payroll, but they're not trying to lose to inflate their draft stock for multiple years.
So I think it's two separate questions. Are there things to be done to legislate out multi-rebuilds? Maybe. Flip the draft order so the best non-playoff teams pick first and have the highest bonus pool, award teams extra draft choices for making the playoffs.
These things reduce the baseball incentive for rebuilds and make it harder for teams like the Pirates or Orioles to have success with what they're currently trying.
Legislating out just not committing fully when the young talent bubbles up, like the Reds and Guardians did this winter? I think that's harder.
A salary floor would be a direct measure for forcing spending, but the league isn't going to do that with a cap.
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Early thoughts on Seiya Suzuki?
Anthony Franco
He's been great.
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Does Gorman and Herrera get it done for John Means?
Anthony Franco
I can't see the Cards giving up that much.
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Could a team essentially just trade money for a player? E.g. many teams don’t have the farm for B. Reynolds but could they just buy him from the Pirates?
Anthony Franco
You do sometimes see guys traded for cash consideration, but those are always super fringy players.
I'm sure there's some sort of limit, but I don't know it off the top of my head. But no, the Pirates can't trade Reynolds to the Yankees for $200MM.
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Who would you consider to be a dark-horse contender to win the World Series this season?
Anthony Franco
Anyone who makes the playoffs is a World Series contender.
Are the Twins a dark-horse playoff contender? Reds maybe?
I don't think either of those teams is winning the World Series, but could they grab a Wild Card spot and make a run? Sure.
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How quickly do internal/external evaluations of prospects change among teams, and among media, over the course of the first couple months? Does a strong April bump up a young guy's trade value significantly into May?
Anthony Franco
I'm sure it varies team-to-team. Most or all have projection models and things of that nature that'll fluctuate. How much probably depends more on if there's a process change that looks like it might explain it.
If a pitcher adds a new pitch or throws 3 MPH harder and shoves for a month, it's pretty easy to buy that he's just better now.
I'd be less inclined to buy small sample breakouts for pitchers whose stuff looks mostly the same or, generally speaking, for hitters.
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How soon do you start looking at slash lines more seriously?
Anthony Franco
There's no specific cut-off date before which nothing's meaningful and after which everything's meaningful, unfortunately.
From a broad framework perspective, I'll start looking at process oriented stuff -- how often is a guy chasing pitches outside the strike zone, his contact rate -- by like the end of April.
If those things are different, I'll put more stock into changes in the bottom line numbers.
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Is the difference in reaction times for a 90mph pitch vs a 95mph pitch really that significant? Do you think teams may be overlooking command and deception?
Anthony Franco
All things being equal, there's a huge difference between 90 and 95 that'll be borne out in swing-and-miss and home run rates.
But of course, throwing 95 isn't alone sufficient. Command and deception are more difficult to quantify, so while they're meaningful, I think teams are going to be skeptical about their ability to accurately parse out command or deception.
Broadly speaking, we have an idea. But we can't rank pitchers by deception.
To your point, I think we've seen teams place a ton of emphasis on movement in recent years as that became more measurable. How backspinning fastballs at the top of the strike zone, particularly from a lower release height, can help that pitch play above its velocity, etc.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
A smattering of questions for most of the division. I included 3 bonus Q&As this time.
The link to the entire chat can be found here: https://www.jotcast.com/chat/mlbtr-chat ... 12875.html
-----------------------------------------------------------------
What do you think of this Cubs team? 80 win team?
Anthony Franco
Under, maybe 75? The back of the rotation's rough, doubt Ortega and Wisdom repeat last year's performance.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
At this point, Nolan Arenado is pretty clear the front runner for NL MVP. Think he can keep it up?
Anthony Franco
There is no such thing as a frontrunner for MVP a week into the season.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Think Happ will get traded? One more year of arb and I don't think he's a core piece. Lots of clubs could use him...
Anthony Franco
Yeah I could see that, kind of depends where they sit in July. They didn't trade Contreras before the season and obviously aren't punting on the year.
If they're hanging around the playoff picture, there probably won't be enough demand for Happ to make it worthwhile. But if they're 6-8 games out at that point, sure.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
I know STL is always shy about trading blue chip prospects, but with it being Pujols’ and Yadi’s final season, do they really go for it if they’re in contention?
Anthony Franco
Another one that's tough to answer without knowing what the roster will look like in July, but I'm skeptical they'll be super aggressive.
Part of the reason they've been fairly cautious and just added around the margins is that the team is pretty solid across the board and they don't have many glaring needs.
Maybe an injury opens that up or something, but right now, I don't think there are any must-upgrade spots on the roster.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
I hate that teams don’t try to compete every year. Look at the Reds. Can’t anything be done to avoid tanking?
Anthony Franco
The Reds aren't tanking. Ownership got cheap and they cut payroll, but they're not trying to lose to inflate their draft stock for multiple years.
So I think it's two separate questions. Are there things to be done to legislate out multi-rebuilds? Maybe. Flip the draft order so the best non-playoff teams pick first and have the highest bonus pool, award teams extra draft choices for making the playoffs.
These things reduce the baseball incentive for rebuilds and make it harder for teams like the Pirates or Orioles to have success with what they're currently trying.
Legislating out just not committing fully when the young talent bubbles up, like the Reds and Guardians did this winter? I think that's harder.
A salary floor would be a direct measure for forcing spending, but the league isn't going to do that with a cap.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Early thoughts on Seiya Suzuki?
Anthony Franco
He's been great.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Does Gorman and Herrera get it done for John Means?
Anthony Franco
I can't see the Cards giving up that much.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Could a team essentially just trade money for a player? E.g. many teams don’t have the farm for B. Reynolds but could they just buy him from the Pirates?
Anthony Franco
You do sometimes see guys traded for cash consideration, but those are always super fringy players.
I'm sure there's some sort of limit, but I don't know it off the top of my head. But no, the Pirates can't trade Reynolds to the Yankees for $200MM.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Who would you consider to be a dark-horse contender to win the World Series this season?
Anthony Franco
Anyone who makes the playoffs is a World Series contender.
Are the Twins a dark-horse playoff contender? Reds maybe?
I don't think either of those teams is winning the World Series, but could they grab a Wild Card spot and make a run? Sure.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
-----------------------------------------------------------------
How quickly do internal/external evaluations of prospects change among teams, and among media, over the course of the first couple months? Does a strong April bump up a young guy's trade value significantly into May?
Anthony Franco
I'm sure it varies team-to-team. Most or all have projection models and things of that nature that'll fluctuate. How much probably depends more on if there's a process change that looks like it might explain it.
If a pitcher adds a new pitch or throws 3 MPH harder and shoves for a month, it's pretty easy to buy that he's just better now.
I'd be less inclined to buy small sample breakouts for pitchers whose stuff looks mostly the same or, generally speaking, for hitters.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
How soon do you start looking at slash lines more seriously?
Anthony Franco
There's no specific cut-off date before which nothing's meaningful and after which everything's meaningful, unfortunately.
From a broad framework perspective, I'll start looking at process oriented stuff -- how often is a guy chasing pitches outside the strike zone, his contact rate -- by like the end of April.
If those things are different, I'll put more stock into changes in the bottom line numbers.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Is the difference in reaction times for a 90mph pitch vs a 95mph pitch really that significant? Do you think teams may be overlooking command and deception?
Anthony Franco
All things being equal, there's a huge difference between 90 and 95 that'll be borne out in swing-and-miss and home run rates.
But of course, throwing 95 isn't alone sufficient. Command and deception are more difficult to quantify, so while they're meaningful, I think teams are going to be skeptical about their ability to accurately parse out command or deception.
Broadly speaking, we have an idea. But we can't rank pitchers by deception.
To your point, I think we've seen teams place a ton of emphasis on movement in recent years as that became more measurable. How backspinning fastballs at the top of the strike zone, particularly from a lower release height, can help that pitch play above its velocity, etc.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
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Re: Anthony Franco's NL Central comments
lol yeah we're not trading Gorman alone for John Means, not to mention Gorman and Herrera.
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Re: Anthony Franco's NL Central comments
Ok, which one of you maroons asked this?At this point, Nolan Arenado is pretty clear the front runner for NL MVP. Think he can keep it up?
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Re: Anthony Franco's NL Central comments
I appreciate the one guy talking about the MVP race 8 games into the season.
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Re: Anthony Franco's NL Central comments
I just wish somebody would finally ask if the Pirates are going to trade Bryan Reynolds.
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Re: Anthony Franco's NL Central comments
There are only two trade offers that exist online: John Gall for Ohtani and Trout or Gorman, Walker, Liberatore and Herrera for Kris Bubic.
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Re: Anthony Franco's NL Central comments
And now he's having TJ surgery, so we should probably throw in Walker.