Steve Adams' NL Central comments

Discuss all things Cardinals Baseball
User avatar
mikechamp
Hall Of Famer
Posts: 10132
Joined: April 17 06, 5:05 pm
Location: Southwestern Illinois

Steve Adams' NL Central comments

Post by mikechamp »

These comments came from a chat with MLB Trade Rumors' Steve Adams that occurred on May 17. (If you like him, you can find him on Twitter @Adams_Steve.)

It was a short chat this week. One bonus Q&A about the trade deadline and expanded playoffs.

The link to the entire chat can be found here: https://www.jotcast.com/chat/chat-with- ... 13151.html

-----------------------------------------------------------------
Thoughts on the sort of package Quintana could land at the deadline assuming he's dealt?

Steve Adams
He's looked a lot more like his old self recently, which is good for the Bucs! That said, it's a 2-ish month rental of a guy who most contenders aren't going to consider a playoff starter. You're looking at a prospect or two that the Pirates can slot somewhere into the 20-30 range of their system probably. I don't think anyone's going to part with a prospect of too much note for Quintana at this point.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
If Pujols develops a knuckleball, do you think he could milk another couple of years outta his farewell tour?

Steve Adams
He'd need a knuckleball catcher! What's Josh Thole doing?
-----------------------------------------------------------------
The Rays seem to get a lot out of their organizationally-ranked prospects. Any other teams out there that always seem to get more hits than misses on the Top 30 any beyond (whether it be trade resources or big league production)?

Steve Adams
I just expect that in any given year, the Cardinals are going to have one or two random 40 FV prospects just pop up and be unexpectedly awesome. The Rays are among the best at that, though, yes.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Willson Contreras is really playing well right now. Should the Cubs try to move him now when he is performing at this high of a level? What would a return look like?

Steve Adams
Barring some kind of prolonged stretch that convinces scouts of a material change in his skill set, I don't think a hot streak really enhances a player's value all that much in 2022. The benefit to shopping Contreras now rather than in July would be that the acquiring team gets four months of him rather than two.

You saw the returns for Bryant, Baez, etc. last year. I don't think they're going to get anything amazing for him -- probably one decent name who slots into the upper third of their top 30 prospects or so and some lower-level guys.

It's rare you see a rental fetch a big return at this point. I'm still pretty surprised the Twins were able to pull Joe Ryan for Nelson Cruz, for instance, though Ryan raised his stock a bit after that trade.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Does Molina/Pujols/ Wainwright all get inducted in the HOF together first ballot?

Steve Adams
If they all retire together, probably. No indication from Waino that he's done yet though!
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Cleveland has far too many MIF prospects/players. Miller, Freeman, Arias, Gimenez, Rocchio, Rosario, Tena, Martinez. It’s simply impossible to keep all these. Logical trade partner for them? They have a lot of quality prospects, not just quantity. Perhaps Murphy from Oakland? Or maybe the Pirates realize it truly is time to trade Reynolds.

Steve Adams
They could use some help behind the plate, so yeah, Murphy makes good sense. Especially since he's controllable and still relatively affordable, as opposed to, say, Contreras, who's expensive and a pending free agent.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Over/under on 100 losses for Cincinnati this season.

Steve Adams
I'll take the over.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Are there really other destinations for Judge besides NYC and LA? Is it worth building our hope he could actually pick a team to make better rather than keep the big-city-coastal status quo?

Steve Adams
Of course there are. The Mariners have like $59MM on the books in 2023. Tigers $84MM. Cubs $94MM. Nationals $62MM. I think the Yankees will be seen as the favorites, but there are plenty of teams that can afford it.
Rangers only have $85MM on the books even after Seager/Semien.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Will the trade deadline be a little cooler with the extra teams making the playoffs?

Steve Adams
I can see the argument on either side.

"More teams in contention = more teams buying!"

or

"More teams getting in = teams are less motivated to make a move since it's easier to get in"

If anything, I think this year will be interesting because we're going to have more teams that are pretty clearly buried and selling. It's also increasingly common for fringe teams to sell of short-term assets even if they're not tearing down and rebuilding. We'll probably see some .500-ish teams sell off rentals while they still look into acquiring a Montas or someone.
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Tags:

User avatar
Popeye_Card
GRB's most intelligent & humble poster
Posts: 29876
Joined: April 17 06, 11:25 am

Re: Steve Adams' NL Central comments

Post by Popeye_Card »

Sorry to burst that guy's bubble, but Wainwright isn't making the HoF. I'm not confident Yadi is going in on the first ballot either.

Maybe they'll all go into the Cardinals Hall of Fame together.

User avatar
KenBoyer14
Everyday Player
Posts: 157
Joined: October 12 19, 5:09 pm

Re: Steve Adams' NL Central comments

Post by KenBoyer14 »

Popeye_Card wrote:
May 19 22, 6:57 am
Sorry to burst that guy's bubble, but Wainwright isn't making the HoF. I'm not confident Yadi is going in on the first ballot either.

Maybe they'll all go into the Cardinals Hall of Fame together.
I think you have that right. I like them both, but I don't think Adam makes the HoF. He'll be in the Hall of Very Good. And I'd be surprised if Yadi gets in on his first try. He'll get in, but I don't think it will be the first year.

User avatar
heyzeus
Everday Unicorn
Posts: 41342
Joined: April 21 06, 10:14 am
Location: Austin, TX
Contact:

Re: Steve Adams' NL Central comments

Post by heyzeus »

KenBoyer14 wrote:
May 20 22, 7:04 am
Popeye_Card wrote:
May 19 22, 6:57 am
Sorry to burst that guy's bubble, but Wainwright isn't making the HoF. I'm not confident Yadi is going in on the first ballot either.

Maybe they'll all go into the Cardinals Hall of Fame together.
I think you have that right. I like them both, but I don't think Adam makes the HoF. He'll be in the Hall of Very Good. And I'd be surprised if Yadi gets in on his first try. He'll get in, but I don't think it will be the first year.
I think Yadi gets in on the second ballot. I think hall voters are way too picky and he should be in on the first ballot. Years from now nobody really cares which ballot someone gets in on. Just that he's in.

I was chatting with @vinsanity the other day about the Waino question. Right now, he's on the outside looking in; his top comp is Roy Oswalt, who was very good and often great but not great enough for long enough. So here's the question: For whatever reason, Wainwright has gotten into a groove the last few years on health and command. Nobody can do it forever, but what if he had a Jamie Moyer-like run deep into his 40s, knocking out 12-16 wins a year with a respectable ERA? What if that landed him at say 240ish wins? Would that, plus his postseason history, and four top-3 CYA finishes put him in?

User avatar
CardsofSTL
All Hail the GDT Master
Posts: 47817
Joined: April 26 11, 6:06 am
Location: Columbus, OH

Re: Steve Adams' NL Central comments

Post by CardsofSTL »

I think Waino's best shot (and it's a longshot) to get into the HoF would be if he was on the ballot with Yadi and their combined battery contributions got into the heads of voters. Their combination could get enough votes for the feel good story of it.

That being said...F the HoF. Mussina is in it so put in Waino.

User avatar
Big Amoco Sign
Master of Hyperbole
Posts: 14402
Joined: December 1 17, 11:05 am

Re: Steve Adams' NL Central comments

Post by Big Amoco Sign »

CardsofSTL wrote:
May 20 22, 8:27 am
I think Waino's best shot (and it's a longshot) to get into the HoF would be if he was on the ballot with Yadi and their combined battery contributions got into the heads of voters. Their combination could get enough votes for the feel good story of it.

That being said...F the HoF. Mussina is in it so put in Waino.
Mussina has 81 fWAR and 82 bWAR and Waino only has 45.4 fWAR and 45.7 bWAR. I think Mussina deserves to be there.

King Felix should be in the hall if Waino is in.

User avatar
Jocephus
99% conan clips
Posts: 63654
Joined: April 18 06, 5:14 pm

Re: Steve Adams' NL Central comments

Post by Jocephus »

Tom
HOFers on St. Louis Cardinals, over/under, 3.5?

Jay Jaffe
Pujols a lock, Molina very likely, Arenado and Goldschmidt in good shape but not lock territory... I think I'd probably take the over
that sneaky-good Andrew Knizner case...

User avatar
Popeye_Card
GRB's most intelligent & humble poster
Posts: 29876
Joined: April 17 06, 11:25 am

Re: Steve Adams' NL Central comments

Post by Popeye_Card »

At 34 now, I don't think there's any way Goldschmidt is going to put up a HoF quality resume from here. Great player of course, but as a 1B he's going to have to have at least one of the big ones (3000 hits / 500 HR), and I don't think he comes close to either one. Closest comp that got in without one of those was Jeff Bagwell, but he also had an MVP award (which I don't think Goldy will).

User avatar
heyzeus
Everday Unicorn
Posts: 41342
Joined: April 21 06, 10:14 am
Location: Austin, TX
Contact:

Re: Steve Adams' NL Central comments

Post by heyzeus »

Popeye_Card wrote:
May 20 22, 2:42 pm
At 34 now, I don't think there's any way Goldschmidt is going to put up a HoF quality resume from here. Great player of course, but as a 1B he's going to have to have at least one of the big ones (3000 hits / 500 HR), and I don't think he comes close to either one. Closest comp that got in without one of those was Jeff Bagwell, but he also had an MVP award (which I don't think Goldy will).
Goldy is a bit more Berkman than Bagwell. Probably Hall of Really Good.

User avatar
Big Amoco Sign
Master of Hyperbole
Posts: 14402
Joined: December 1 17, 11:05 am

Re: Steve Adams' NL Central comments

Post by Big Amoco Sign »

Popeye_Card wrote:
May 20 22, 2:42 pm
At 34 now, I don't think there's any way Goldschmidt is going to put up a HoF quality resume from here. Great player of course, but as a 1B he's going to have to have at least one of the big ones (3000 hits / 500 HR), and I don't think he comes close to either one. Closest comp that got in without one of those was Jeff Bagwell, but he also had an MVP award (which I don't think Goldy will).
Don’t disagree on Goldy but I don’t think counting/accumulator stats are as important as they used to be. WAR and Statcast used by mainstream writers more than ever now.

Posey going in first ballot will also change that mindset.

Post Reply