Steve Adams' NL Central comments

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mikechamp
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Steve Adams' NL Central comments

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These comments came from a chat with MLB Trade Rumors' Steve Adams that occurred on May 24. (If you like him, you can find him on Twitter @Adams_Steve.)

He took a lot of divisional questions this week. No bonus Q&As this time.

The link to the entire chat can be found here: https://www.jotcast.com/chat/chat-with- ... 13200.html

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How much value does Ian Happ have?

Steve Adams
Happ's walks are up and the strikeouts are down, but his power is also down. I don't think anyone's buying him as a true .400 OBP guy, and his .341 average on balls in play seems ripe for regression -- particularly since it's not accompanied by any appreciable changes in his batted-ball profile. If anything, I'd say it's a bad sign that his ground-ball rate has increased to the extent it has.

Happ isn't really a great defender, and he's probably closer to a slightly above-average hitter than the plus offensive presence he's been this year. He's controlled through 2023 only.

I don't think the trade value is all that high. OF-needy teams will have some interest, sure, but he's not going to bring back a heavy prospect haul unless he can sustain this K/BB improvement while also rediscovering some of the missing power.
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With the season he’s having, what could Wilson Contreras realistically bring back in a trade?

Steve Adams
I don't think Contreras is bringing back that much more than any of the rentals they traded at last year's deadline. If the Cubs get a solid prospect and another lower-level or lower-tier piece, that seems fair. If you're expecting to see a contender give you one of their top-five prospects and then some ... you'll probably be disappointed.
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What are your expectations for Roansy Contreras now that he's in the rotation?

Steve Adams
Solid middle-of-the-rotation type of guy. I hope Pirates fans don't come out expecting that he's a ready-made ace, and there'll probably be some shaky games early on if he doesn't improve his command (he walked almost 14% of hitters in AAA).
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Does Alex Reyes ever pitch in the MLB again?

Steve Adams
I feel bad for the guy. Hopefully, but no one has any way of knowing what his future holds right now. It's not like he's having a third Tommy John surgery or something, so I don't see any reason to assume this shoulder thing is a career-ender, but it's tough to project a lengthy career when that many major surgeries start to mount up.
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The Brewers recently DFAed Alex Bettinger and Dylan File from their 40 man roster while both were in the minors which left them with only 37 guys on the 40 man roster. What is the point or benefit in doing that?

Steve Adams
They add some additional 40-man roster flexibility and they removed both from the roster while retaining their rights by waiving them at a time when they felt they had a chance of going unclaimed.
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Is Blake Snell fantasy relevant? Is he better than Luis Castillo?

Steve Adams
I have both on multiple fantasy rosters. Snell down the stretch in 2021 was one of the five best pitchers in baseball, and it coincided with him overhauling his pitch selection. I'm giving him several starts before I even consider moving on.
Castillo's velo has improved every start so far.
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Does Pujols get to 700 home runs this year?

Steve Adams
I don't see it. Pujols is really only productive against lefties and I don't think he'll see enough of them to get 17 more long balls.
Would be fun though!
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Is there any reason for the Cubs not to cut Heyward and give the younger players a chance to play?

Steve Adams
I guess just holding out hope that someone takes on part of the deal in a bad contract dump and they're thusly spared some money? If Brennen Davis weren't struggling in AAA right now, you have to think they'd at least consider making the switch.
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Can Eric Lauer keep this up?

Steve Adams
Lauer threw his first slider of the 2021 season on July 3. Since then he has a 2.32 ERA, 26.7% strikeout rate and 7.1% walk rate in 116 1/3 IP
Velocity up this year on top of that new pitch now.

Maybe he's not a low-2.00s ERA guy, but I'm a Lauer believer through and through and think he's a comfortably above-average starter now.
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If the Reds were trying to make a blockbuster trade, do you think Arizona would trade Corbin Carroll, Alek Thomas, Jordan Lawler and Seth Beer for Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle, and Matt MaClain?

Steve Adams
No.

The D-backs aren't going to trade that much future value for a pair of guys who are free agents post-2023. Obviously Matt McClain is controlled longer, but conceptually, it doesn't even make sense given where the Snakes are at relative to the division leaders and short-term expectations for the franchise.
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