6/25 GDT: Cubs(Sampson) vs Cardinals(Mikolas) 1:15 PM CT

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Joe Shlabotnik
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Re: 6/25 GDT: Cubs(Sampson) vs Cardinals(Mikolas) 1:15 PM CT

Post by Joe Shlabotnik »

phins wrote:
June 25 22, 4:49 pm
Big Amoco Sign wrote:
June 25 22, 4:33 pm
phins wrote:
June 25 22, 4:30 pm
Big Amoco Sign wrote:
June 25 22, 3:37 pm
phins wrote:
June 25 22, 3:13 pm
My eyes told me he wasn’t missing bats or finishing his slider.

Admittedly, I think Oli has been awful this year with the bullpen and doesn’t have the benefit of doubt from me.
You and @dmarx114 are mathematically wrong in regards to Oli.

Fangraphs says Manager runs created = Reliever WPA - Reliever WPA/LI.

Oli is third in all of baseball with 2.20. With a crappy pen at that. You guys are just flat wrong on Oli.

If he's bad, 26 other managers are worse.
If you take their numbers and do nothing else with them, ok.
Fairly certain that’s the only thing besides pinch hits and pinch runs and subs that a manager controls. Lineups out of control likely by non Tony/Buck/Dusty types.

I’ll take comprehensive formulas over “eye test” stuff.
I understand your point. As a point of reference I’m a Data Scientist for a Fortune 500 company and run the analytics for a product of ours with a Master of Science in Analytics from Georgia Tech.
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cardinalkarp
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Re: 6/25 GDT: Cubs(Sampson) vs Cardinals(Mikolas) 1:15 PM CT

Post by cardinalkarp »

Joe Shlabotnik wrote:
June 25 22, 5:04 pm
phins wrote:
June 25 22, 4:49 pm
Big Amoco Sign wrote:
June 25 22, 4:33 pm
phins wrote:
June 25 22, 4:30 pm
Big Amoco Sign wrote:
June 25 22, 3:37 pm


You and @dmarx114 are mathematically wrong in regards to Oli.

Fangraphs says Manager runs created = Reliever WPA - Reliever WPA/LI.

Oli is third in all of baseball with 2.20. With a crappy pen at that. You guys are just flat wrong on Oli.

If he's bad, 26 other managers are worse.
If you take their numbers and do nothing else with them, ok.
Fairly certain that’s the only thing besides pinch hits and pinch runs and subs that a manager controls. Lineups out of control likely by non Tony/Buck/Dusty types.

I’ll take comprehensive formulas over “eye test” stuff.
I understand your point. As a point of reference I’m a Data Scientist for a Fortune 500 company and run the analytics for a product of ours with a Master of Science in Analytics from Georgia Tech.
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Whoops!!!

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Big Amoco Sign
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Re: 6/25 GDT: Cubs(Sampson) vs Cardinals(Mikolas) 1:15 PM CT

Post by Big Amoco Sign »

phins wrote:
June 25 22, 4:49 pm
Big Amoco Sign wrote:
June 25 22, 4:33 pm
phins wrote:
June 25 22, 4:30 pm
Big Amoco Sign wrote:
June 25 22, 3:37 pm
phins wrote:
June 25 22, 3:13 pm
My eyes told me he wasn’t missing bats or finishing his slider.

Admittedly, I think Oli has been awful this year with the bullpen and doesn’t have the benefit of doubt from me.
You and @dmarx114 are mathematically wrong in regards to Oli.

Fangraphs says Manager runs created = Reliever WPA - Reliever WPA/LI.

Oli is third in all of baseball with 2.20. With a crappy pen at that. You guys are just flat wrong on Oli.

If he's bad, 26 other managers are worse.
If you take their numbers and do nothing else with them, ok.
Fairly certain that’s the only thing besides pinch hits and pinch runs and subs that a manager controls. Lineups out of control likely by non Tony/Buck/Dusty types.

I’ll take comprehensive formulas over “eye test” stuff.
I understand your point. As a point of reference I’m a Data Scientist for a Fortune 500 company and run the analytics for a product of ours with a Master of Science in Analytics from Georgia Tech.

Using data for something as layered as bullpen management is difficult to do. If you evaluate just on leverage index and WPA, he most likely fares well because he has limited options.

It’s possible I’m wrong on this topic, but to this point I haven’t been overly impressed with bullpen decisions.
I have a masters of science too. I’m not a stooge on this stuff. But I’m not the smartest on this stuff either which is why I lean on Fangraphs and baseball people on this. If this formula stinks and isn’t comprehensive I’m all ears. Being third tells me Oli isn’t bad. His pen is middle of the pack numbers wise, so adding Manager wins at a rate where you’re third in MLB says *something*.

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Re: 6/25 GDT: Cubs(Sampson) vs Cardinals(Mikolas) 1:15 PM CT

Post by phins »

I wrote and re-wrote that several times.

My point was just to convey that I understand being data driven. Not to say my opinion is worth more than yours, but rather that measuring bullpen usage is not as simple as taking leverage and WPA and saying that’s good.

It does show that he uses his best relievers in the biggest spots, which is a positive, for sure.

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Donnie Ebert
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Re: 6/25 GDT: Cubs(Sampson) vs Cardinals(Mikolas) 1:15 PM CT

Post by Donnie Ebert »

I am He-Man, Master of the Universe. I do not have a Masters of Science.

phins
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Re: 6/25 GDT: Cubs(Sampson) vs Cardinals(Mikolas) 1:15 PM CT

Post by phins »

So it came off the way I feared. Ha

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Joe Shlabotnik
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Re: 6/25 GDT: Cubs(Sampson) vs Cardinals(Mikolas) 1:15 PM CT

Post by Joe Shlabotnik »

phins wrote:
June 25 22, 6:56 pm
So it came off the way I feared. Ha
@phins,don't beat yourself up. The whole board knows you know more about pitching than ANYBODY. We just never had the balls to tell Ken Boyer.

phins
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Re: 6/25 GDT: Cubs(Sampson) vs Cardinals(Mikolas) 1:15 PM CT

Post by phins »

Joe Shlabotnik wrote:
June 25 22, 7:07 pm
phins wrote:
June 25 22, 6:56 pm
So it came off the way I feared. Ha
@phins,don't beat yourself up. The whole board knows you know more about pitching than ANYBODY. We just never had the balls to tell Ken Boyer.
I remember when that happened.

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Big Amoco Sign
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Re: 6/25 GDT: Cubs(Sampson) vs Cardinals(Mikolas) 1:15 PM CT

Post by Big Amoco Sign »

phins wrote:
June 25 22, 6:56 pm
So it came off the way I feared. Ha
lol

I get it. I like learning from this forum on baseball stat stuff.

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a_smith
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Re: 6/25 GDT: Cubs(Sampson) vs Cardinals(Mikolas) 1:15 PM CT

Post by a_smith »

Joe Shlabotnik wrote:
June 25 22, 7:07 pm
phins wrote:
June 25 22, 6:56 pm
So it came off the way I feared. Ha
@phins,don't beat yourself up. The whole board knows you know more about pitching than ANYBODY. We just never had the balls to tell Ken Boyer.
speaking of random old posters like boyer, did Skrmsw ever come back after (Doc Ellis?) questioned him about his claims working for the red sox?

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