Steve Adams' NL Central comments

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mikechamp
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Steve Adams' NL Central comments

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These comments came from a chat with MLB Trade Rumors' Steve Adams that occurred on June 28. (If you like him, you can find him on Twitter @Adams_Steve.)

We got some longer answers this week. I included 1 bonus Q&A to give a little insight into what the MLBTR chatters have to deal with.

The link to the entire chat can be found here: https://www.jotcast.com/chat/chat-with- ... 13426.html

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Do you feel that Joe Musgrave is a legit target for the Cubs, this offseason?

Steve Adams
I feel the Cubs will be involved in more of the top-end free agents this winter than they were last (I never bought them as a Correa landing spot whatsoever) -- so sure, I can see them poking around there. Musgrove is going to be the top pitcher on the market, at least in terms of earning power, though. Several years ago, I wouldn't have blinked at the idea of the Cubs spending $150MM+ on a free agent, but it's been a long time since they've played in those waters.
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What will/should the Cards do with DeJong? Gorman seems to be holding his own decently enough but DeJong has also shown life in AAA. I think due to service time he's "out" of options if he gets called back up. Is there any trade value there?

Steve Adams
He's not out of options, or else he wouldn't have been able to be sent down. That said, he was a few weeks shy of reaching five years of service time when he was sent down, and that's effectively the same thing... players with 5+ years have to consent to being optioned.

DeJong has hit some homers in Memphis, but he still has a .274 OBP there -- and his bat has actually cooled off after a better start.

I liked DeJong as a buy-low candidate this winter, but it's hard to continue to hold that belief in light of this year's struggles. His offensive game has just backed up so much, and he's still owed around $15MM through the end of 2023.

The best bet at this point is to try to flip him for another bad contract, but I don't think his performance in AAA is going to convince anyone to take on a notable portion of his contract.
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What moves do you see the Twins potentially making? Any good closers/late inning relievers that may be a good fit for them?

Steve Adams
They should add at least one starter and probably multiple relievers. It'll be driven by asking price rather than "We specifically need this exact pitcher." There will be plenty of decent late-inning arms available. David Robertson, Mychal Givens, Jorge Lopez, Joe Mantiply, Michael Fulmer, Matt Moore, Tanner Rainey off the top of my head.
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What, nobody has claimed Jonathon Villar yet?

Steve Adams
No one's going to claim Villar with more than $3MM remaining on his contract. He'll either be traded (with cash) or released.

I'm sure the Cubs are looking around for trade partners. He'll have to be placed on waivers tomorrow if they can't find a deal, as that'll be five days out from his DFA (and the waiver process itself takes 48 hours).
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Who gets more in return- Montas or Castillo?

Steve Adams
Both controlled through the end of the 2023 season. Both making comparable salaries (Castillo a bit more) on likely sellers. Let's start with this...

Who nets a bigger return in a trade?
Luis Castillo (53.6% | 194 votes)

Frankie Montas (46.4% | 168 votes)

Total Votes: 362

In a vacuum, I would expect Castillo to command a larger return... but I also think the Reds are likelier than the A's to attach some bad money to Castillo in order to shed future payroll, which would tip the scales in favor of Montas.

If we're saying both players are going as the lone player from their team, to an interested buyer, with no cash being kicked in.... I think Castillo is the better option.

I don't think you'd get a consensus agreement on who's more valuable if you asked all 30 clubs, though.
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Who needs Contreras the most?

Steve Adams
The Astros, but they have a bizarre obsession with Martin Maldonado.
Guardians, too, but I wouldn't expect them to take on the salary.
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Does a Rafael Ortega trade make sense to add to the injured Rays outfield?

Steve Adams
I just don't think most teams are going to consider Ortega a huge upgrade over what they currently have. He's had a decent 160 or so games with the Cubs, but he can't hit lefties, he's not a good center fielder, etc.

The Cubs have a lot of these 30ish journeymen who've exceeded their career outputs since signing/being claimed, but I don't see tons of trade value.
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DeJong for Snell as a framework...

Steve Adams
Snell's struggling but still has quite a bit more value.
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I have to give some push back. Maldonado has caught 2 immaculate innings and a no hitter. "Bizzarre obsession" means that you are not including the pitch framer and calling of Maldaonado. There is more to catching than swinging a bat.

Steve Adams
Maldonado's framing numbers over the past few seasons aren't even particularly good, and he's hitting .164/.256/.293 with a 30% strikeout rate in his past 607 plate appearances. There's more to the game than swinging a bat, but at a certain point you have to be able to do SOMETHING with the bat. Maldonado would need to be like peak-level Russell Martin or Yadier Molina to justify this level of playing time, and he is not that. Plus, as I've written before -- even if you love the clubhouse leadership and his game-planning abilities with the pitching staff... great. Make him the backup to Contreras and DFA Castro.

Houston catchers have been astonishingly unproductive this year.
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Other than Jose Quintana, are there any Pirates that will realistically traded at the deadline? I'm assuming asking prices on Bednar and Reynolds won't be met.

Steve Adams
Ben Gamel might get a marginal prospect? Chris Stratton, I suppose, but the velo dip is concerning even if the ERA looks like it's in for some positive regression.
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I imagine you shaking your head a lot when you read some of the trade proposals/comments you must get in these chats.

Steve Adams
Sure, but I do the same to some of the trades that actually happen, ha. Never know.
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Magneto2.0
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Re: Steve Adams' NL Central comments

Post by Magneto2.0 »

Snell seems like a very good buy low candidate for the Cardinals. Not sure what the Padres would ask for though

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