Anthony Franco's NL Central comments

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mikechamp
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Anthony Franco's NL Central comments

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These comments came from a chat with MLB Trade Rumors' Anthony Franco that occurred on June 29. (You can find him on Twitter at @affranco10 if you really want to ask him something.)

In addition to the divisional questions, I included 3 bonus Q&As: two about depressed offense and another about... the next big thing.

The link to the entire chat can be found here: https://www.jotcast.com/chat/mlbtr-chat ... 13432.html

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What trades do you see the Twins making at the deadline?

Anthony Franco
They'll be in on virtually every starting pitcher, and I'd probably pick them them to land one of Castillo, Montas or Mahle.

Could look to add another corner bat too after losing Larnach for six weeks, although I wouldn't consider it a must with Miranda, Arraez and Kirilloff all around.
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Contreras/Hendricks in a package deal to NYM or SF?

Anthony Franco
Don't think there's much chance of those guys going together. Hendricks doesn't hold a ton of appeal.
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How many teams currently leading their divisions will be in first at the end of the season?

Anthony Franco
I'll say five, Milwaukee being the most likely to not hold on.
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What do you see the Cardinals doing in the trade break?

Anthony Franco
Relief help feels like the big thing there. Flaherty's injury probably means they'll poke around the market for a back-end starter too, but I doubt they'll be motivated to part with the kind of talent it'd take for a Montas type.
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I think the Brewers have enough to make Postseason, but What/Who do they add to improve this team at deadline?? An extra bat and/or an extra reliever?

Anthony Franco
They need offense, preferably in the outfield. I'd give serious thought to trading for Benintendi and just throwing him in center field for a couple months.

He wouldn't be great there in all likelihood, but he'd be a notable offensive upgrade over Tyrone Taylor and Jonathan Davis and the defensive concerns are less pronounced for the pitching staff with the league's second-best strikeout rate.
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What could the Cubs hope to get from the White Sox for Madrigal?

Anthony Franco
A solid everyday second baseman with elite contact skills.
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The Cardinals' FA pitcher signings this year have been atrocious, something like a -2.4 WAR combined, and it doesn't seem like a fluke just this year. How can their ability to evaluate outside pitching talent be that bad?

Anthony Franco
Matz's strikeout and walk numbers were pretty good before he got hurt. He should be better.
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How many years until the Reds are competitive?

Anthony Franco
Really depends on ownership. If they're willing to add like $20MM to the payroll next offseason, it's not crazy they could be alright in 2023. There's the makings of a pretty good core there already.

But if next offseason's another where they'll have to try to thread a needle of dealing good players for salary relief and pivoting late to signing Donovan Solano types, then it's worth dealing both Castillo and Mahle now and looking to 2024.
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What kind of return "should" the Reds be aiming for in a Luis Castillo trade? Is two top 100 prospects a possibility similar to the Berrios trade?

Anthony Franco
I think the Berríos trade is a good barometer for both Montas/Castillo. The Top 100 distinction is sort of arbitrary and Martin and Woods-Richardson were both probably more divisive than the typical "top" prospect, but a three or four player with two guys who feature prominently on public lists feels right.
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Patrick Wisdom's first 162 as a Cubs is 40 homers, 92 RBIs, .805 OPS (and 228 strikeouts).. are teams calling for me at the deadline?

Anthony Franco
There'd be moderate interest and the Cubs should probably move him for what they can get, but it's not going to be huge given all the strikeouts and his age.
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What do you think the Rays need to compete a Wild Card Spot?

Anthony Franco
They're a really good fit for Contreras if there's payroll space. Could use another corner outfield bat to replace Margot as well.
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Guardians, Rays, Mets, Astros, or the field. Where does Contreras end up?

Anthony Franco
I'll take the field. Mets beat has kind of downplayed that possibility, Astros seem to love Maldonado. Guardians and Rays are strong fits but have enough payroll concerns I'd pick elsewhere.

To ward off the inevitable next question, Giants.
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Why batting is so poor this season?

Anthony Franco
Everyone has struck out a ton for a while, which made offense very home run dependent. Now the ball isn't carrying as much this year. It's a bad combo.
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If MLB continues using baseballs that don’t carry as far past this season do you think we’ll see more guys attempt to hit line drives or will they stick to the home run approach?

Anthony Franco
There'll be a little more emphasis on contact but the bigger issue than hitter swing planes is the explosion of pitcher velocity and movement over the past few years. I don't know how you reverse that.
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Advanced metrics have given insight to hitting (launch angle, exit velocity), pitching (spin rate), and defense (shifts). What's the next area for analytics? Player health/performance? That seems harder to quantify but you see something like the Twins resting Buxton regularly and he's producing and staying healthy. Can you quantify Nelson Cruz's napping routine? lol

Anthony Franco
Yeah I think injury stuff will be a huge concern. If you could (somewhat) accurately predict which pitchers are best equipped to throw 200+ innings per season, etc., that's a pretty big advantage.

I also think there's more room for matchup-specific deployment of players in games. Rather than relying on strict left-right platoons, matching up hitters with certain swing paths against specific pitchers, etc.

Teams are already doing that stuff to some extent, but some are probably better than others at quantifying and actualizing it.
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