Steve Adams' NL Central comments

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mikechamp
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Steve Adams' NL Central comments

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These comments came from a chat with MLB Trade Rumors' Steve Adams that occurred on July 26. (If you like him, you can find him on Twitter @Adams_Steve.)

Lots to discuss this week. I included 2 bonus Q&As: 1 about trading for Soto and another about shortening the season.

The link to the entire chat can be found here: https://www.jotcast.com/chat/chat-with- ... 13590.html

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More I think about it, the more I like StL as the best fit for Soto. ML or ready pieces Walker, Carlson, Gorman that no one else can really match but also have replacements or long term position covers for in Arenado, Soto (obv), and Donovan/Edman, plus his 2 1/2 years (I doubt StL would pony up long term) would fit well with their window of Arenado, Goldy, etc.

Steve Adams
I like the Cardinals, Rangers, Padres, Mariners and Giants all to varying levels, but you can make a viable trade package from just about any team in the league. I think the Cardinals are totally plausible, but the idea that they're a front-runner based on speculation from other GMs and baseball execs around the league is flawed. They might still end up with him, but I find the weekend characterization of them as a "favorite" to be extremely premature.
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Pirates get Jasson Dominguez, Ken Waldichuk, and TJ Sikkema for David Bednar. Who says no?

Steve Adams
The Yankees.
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I'm confused as to why the Nationals are putting Soto on the block. Two years is forever in today's baseball world. If I was (for example) the Cubs, I'd give them the entire Iowa roster for him plus Ian Happ and Contreras and would still consider myself a winner. Why are the Nats punting?

Steve Adams
They have one of the worst farm systems in baseball even after last summer's fire sale, an even worse Major League roster and $60-65MM in underwater salaries to Corbin and Strasburg guaranteed in each of the next two seasons.

I generally think rebuilding should only be a last resort and not the go-to strategy it seems to be for so many clubs these days, but I get the Nationals' rationale in this case.

They're also selling the team, which factors heavily into all this.
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Can you see the Twins acquiring both David Robertson and Daniel Bard at the deadline?

Steve Adams
I don't think the Rockies will trade Bard. Robertson seems totally viable, but that's not unique to the Twins. He fits on pretty much every contender.
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Other than Quintana is there another Pirates player you think will be moved?

Steve Adams
Is it too late to say Daniel Vogelbach?? Ben Gamel could go. Chris Stratton, too.
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If the Brewers acquire Josh Bell, who does that squeeze off of the roster?

Steve Adams
I just find it hard to see how McCutchen works in there. I don't know that they'd move on, given his veteran status and all that. And I know he's been a bit better since a terrible start to the season. But Tellez/Bell should get the bulk of ABs at 1B/DH in that scenario, and you can use Brosseau as the platoon partner with Rowdy. Cutch just hasn't hit lefties well this year, and that's sort of the whole point in signing him... he was supposed to be a bit better than average against RHP and absolutely torch LHP.
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Over under on the Reds moving 4 MLB players by deadline?

Steve Adams
Over/unders are supposed to be fractional for this very reason! I would set the number right at 4 (so, over on 3.5, or under at 4.5).

Drury, Pham and Naquin should all go. Castillo, Mahle and Minor all have chances to move.
Naquin doesn't get enough love as an option. He's not great and isn't going to fetch some franchise-altering haul, but he can hit righties well and handle all three OF spots (albeit not especially effectively in CF). He's cheap, too. He'd help a lot of clubs as a role player down the stretch.

And there aren't TONS of lefty hitting outfielders available.
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I am surprised the Reds have yet to trade Castillo or Mahle. Anyone hearing what the hold up is?

Steve Adams
They haven't been traded for the same reason that pretty much no one else has been traded.

Teams wait until the buzzer to acquire as much data as possible before making potentially franchise-altering moves. It's a byproduct of the increasingly analytical and data-driven approach to front office construction. It's less fun than the deadline used to be for most of the month, and then sheer chaos every year in the run-up to the deadline.

I personally enjoyed it more when things were a bit more spread out, but that's just how the game is these days.

Also, Mahle was on the IL for most of July, which obviously played a role in his market.
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After a few good outings, does somebody give the Cubs a stupid enough offer to get Stroman?

Steve Adams
I can see him as a long-shot trade candidate. Basically all the damage against him this season has been confined to three awful starts. At the same time, his value is probably down from where it was in the offseason, when the Cubs won the bidding on him. I'm not sure anyone's going to put together a particularly enticing offer to land him right now.

I also expect the Cubs to keep making some mid-range additions to continue building back toward respectability this offseason (and perhaps at this deadline), and Stroman counts toward that goal.
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The Brewers are showcasing Ethan Small for the Twins tomorrow...is he enough to pry Arraez away?

Steve Adams
That is not what's happening, and no.
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How has this chat gone 28 minutes without mentioning Luis Castillo?

Steve Adams
Because the most common question is "Tell me where Luis Castillo will be traded," and not even Reds GM Nick Krall knows the answer to that question right now, haha.

Do I think he'll be traded? I lean yes and expect a return in the same ballpark as what the Twins got for Jose Berrios, value-wise, last year.
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Is Juan Soto really worth 4-5 top prospect type players? Seems like a lot for 2.5 years of one player, no matter how good he is.

Steve Adams
Yup.
I find the notion that any one prospect (or any combination of prospects) is too much for Soto to just be puzzling. I'll use the Giants as an example here, but this applies to most teams...

I've seen several SF fans say that Kyle Harrison should just firmly be off the table in Soto talks. That's utter insanity to me. Soto is an immediate upgrade to a postseason hopeful and a realistic 5-8 win player for the 2023 and 2024 campaigns, playing at a salary that's well shy of his market value.

He's on the short list for best players in baseball, he's only 23. He could very plausibly, somehow, still be getting BETTER. At a certain point, I can understand saying "We just can't give up XYZ" for him, but there is basically no package of talent a team could surrender for Soto that would make me think "Woof, they overpaid."

(Short of the Mariners giving up Julio Rodriguez, or something, but that's obviously not happening)
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Baseball is a summer sport. Shouldn’t 110 games should be plenty?

Steve Adams
You might be able to convince some owners that it's fine to lop April off the schedule (particularly those in cold-weather cities where attendance is poor), but games (especially in warm weather) = money.
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