8/4 GAME 2 GDT: Cubs(Newcomb) vs Cardinals(Quintana) 6:45 CT

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Radbird
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8/4 GAME 2 GDT: Cubs(Newcomb) vs Cardinals(Quintana) 6:45 CT

Post by Radbird »

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Cubs vs Cardinals
6:45PM CT - August 4, 2022
Busch Stadium - St. Louis, MO
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Gypsy Lou
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Re: 8/4 GAME 2 GDT: Cubs(Newcomb) vs Cardinals(Quintana) 6:45 CT

Post by Gypsy Lou »

I don't see any reason why we can't sweep these scrubs and be back in 1st place tonight.

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Re: 8/4 GAME 2 GDT: Cubs(Newcomb) vs Cardinals(Quintana) 6:45 CT

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Re: 8/4 GAME 2 GDT: Cubs(Newcomb) vs Cardinals(Quintana) 6:45 CT

Post by Jocephus »

The St. Louis Cardinals are 30-20 at home this season and the Chicago Cubs are 21-29 on the road this season. This is a close match-up with both teams having a 45 to 55 percent chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Both starters have a relatively low chance of having a quality start. Jose Quintana has a 45% chance of a QS and Marcus Stroman a 46% chance. If Jose Quintana has a quality start the Cardinals has a 75% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 2.8 and he has a 19% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Cardinals win 58%. If Marcus Stroman has a quality start the Cubs has a 67% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 3.7 and he has a 28% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Cubs win 48%. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the St. Louis Cardinals is Paul Goldschmidt who averaged 2.77 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 49% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Cardinals have a 64% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Chicago Cubs is Seiya Suzuki who averaged 2.37 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 40% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Cubs have a 60% chance of winning.
the ass was late for the 1st game and now has stroman going again. i dont know.

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Radbird
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Re: 8/4 GAME 2 GDT: Cubs(Newcomb) vs Cardinals(Quintana) 6:45 CT

Post by Radbird »

Switching from Stroman to 11.57 ERA Newcomb throws this one in our favor. That’s what my sorry A.S.S. says anyway (unless he’s soft-tossing, then we’re likely doomed).

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Re: 8/4 GAME 2 GDT: Cubs(Newcomb) vs Cardinals(Quintana) 6:45 CT

Post by Transmogrified Tiger »

Radbird wrote:
August 4 22, 2:35 pm
Switching from Stroman to 11.57 ERA Newcomb throws this one in our favor. That’s what my sorry A.S.S. says anyway (unless he’s soft-tossing, then we’re likely doomed).
Newcomb is not a soft-tosser, but they also tweaked his repertoire in AAA with improved results(last 5 outings: 16.1 IP, 6 H, 24/9 K/BB), so there's some optimism about him getting back to the type of pitcher he was as a prospect. Still too many walks though so wouldn't be surprised if there's an inning where things snowball, and even if he's great he'd go a maximum of 5 IP, at which point you're facing a pen that just traded 4 of its best relievers.

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Re: 8/4 GAME 2 GDT: Cubs(Newcomb) vs Cardinals(Quintana) 6:45 CT

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Re: 8/4 GAME 2 GDT: Cubs(Newcomb) vs Cardinals(Quintana) 6:45 CT

Post by Joe Shlabotnik »

Radbird wrote:
August 4 22, 2:35 pm
Switching from Stroman to 11.57 ERA Newcomb throws this one in our favor. That’s what my sorry A.S.S. says anyway (unless he’s soft-tossing, then we’re likely doomed).
11.57? That's.... impressive.

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Re: 8/4 GAME 2 GDT: Cubs(Newcomb) vs Cardinals(Quintana) 6:45 CT

Post by sighyoung »

It's interesting that the Cubs have been stretching out Newcomb, with outings gradually leading to a four-inning start against the St. Paul Saints on July 28th. I thought he would just be an opener, but as Transmogrified Tiger mentioned, he's a candidate for the Cubs rotation.

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Re: 8/4 GAME 2 GDT: Cubs(Newcomb) vs Cardinals(Quintana) 6:45 CT

Post by Bruiser Brody »

Let’s go now boys. Let’s go share first place boys.

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