The St. Louis Cardinals are 32-20 at home this season and the New York Yankees are 29-21 on the road this season. This is a close match-up with both teams having a 45 to 55 percent chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Cardinals\' starter Jordan Montgomery is forecasted to have a better game than Yankees\' starter Domingo German (p). Jordan Montgomery has a 47% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Domingo German (p) has a 39% chance of a QS. If Jordan Montgomery has a quality start the Cardinals has a 73% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 2.7 and he has a 23% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Cardinals win 59%. In Domingo German (p) quality starts the Yankees win 70%. He has a 25% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 70% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the St. Louis Cardinals is Paul Goldschmidt who averaged 2.84 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 52% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Cardinals have a 62% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the New York Yankees is Aaron Judge who averaged 2.57 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 44% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Yankees have a 63% chance of winning.
You'd win a lot of money if you asked people who has the hardest average exit velocity on the Cardinals (Lars Nootbaar). The Cardinals- on the whole- just do not impact the baseball that solidly up-and-down the lineup. Now, average exit velocity has been shown to correlate much lower than max exit velocity in terms of identifying power, it does paint a pretty good picture of what happened (not predictive).