Steve Adams' NL Central comments

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mikechamp
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Steve Adams' NL Central comments

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These comments came from a chat with MLB Trade Rumors' Steve Adams that occurred on August 9. (If you like him, you can find him on Twitter @Adams_Steve.)

If you're looking for information on the Cubs or Cards, you're in luck this week. Every other NL Central team? Nada. No bonus Q&As, either.

The link to the entire chat can be found here: https://www.jotcast.com/chat/chat-with- ... 13691.html

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What do you think the Cubs can do to compete for the NL central next season?

Steve Adams
I'm not really sure there's a plausible path for them to take. With enough breaks it's possible for any team to contend (see: 2022 Orioles), but the Cubs have two starters for next season (Stroman, Steele). They'll probably lose Contreras. They'll need a catcher, a center fielder, some corner infield help, a better DH option, and multiple relievers.

I still think they should be willing to add a big-name shortstop, slide Hoerner to another spot, look at some mid-range plays in the rotation (similar to the Stroman deal) and hope it's enough to really propel them to the point where it makes sense to upgrade at the trade deadline.

At the same time, based on their recent history of moves, I have a hard time seeing it happen.
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With the Heyward news yesterday---isn't it about time to give this guy a break? So what about the contract----how about someone highlighting the Baseball Academy he is building in Chicago for the the youth as a full athletic and wellness building.

Steve Adams
Heyward has gotten tons of breaks. The Athletic just ran a column today about how he was worth the contract! (I ardently disagree, but to each their own.)

Tim Dierkes and I were talking about this earlier today. Joey Gallo probably got more criticism in one year in New York than Heyward got in seven in Chicago. The whole "World Series speech" thing seems to have granted him a disproportionate amount of good will.

Heyward, by all accounts, is an awesome guy, great teammate, superb leader, etc. It doesn't change the fact that his contract is one of the worst free-agent blunders in history and very arguably had years of ripple effects that prevented the Cubs from ever repeating that World Series win.
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Convince me that Contreras won't take the QO at one year $18M+... he's getting nowhere near that AAV on the open market and won't get more than three, maybe four years.

Steve Adams
JT Realmuto got $23.1MM AAV. Yasmani Grandal got $18.25MM.

An $18MM AAV should be firmly in play for Contreras, and even if his AAV were "only" something like $15MM, he'd probably still get 4-5 years at that rate, which is a hell of a lot better than 1 and 18.5 or whatever it'll be. I'd put something like a $60MM floor on a Contreras free-agent deal. Rejecting the QO is a no-brainer.

Even if he rejected and got "screwed" into taking a one-year deal, how much lower than $18MM is it going to be? Maybe he has to "settle" for something like a year and 12-15MM late in the offseason ... you're not going to gamble when the downside is losing $3-6MM and the upside is gaining something like $40-70MM?
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Grandal: You just found a contract worse that Heyward's...

Steve Adams
Not even close.
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Isn't a little unfair to call Heyward one of the worst "free-agent blunders in history", at least if process is included in the assessment? I seem to remember that contract (young, athletic position player with elite fielding/floor without any concerning injury issues) being seen as a relatively good free agent investment at the time.

Steve Adams
If you want to call the thinking behind targeting a 26-year-old free agent outfielder sound, sure, I suppose that's fine, but the result is one of the least-valuable free agent signings ever.
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Stroman can opt out after this season.

Steve Adams
He can opt out after 2023, not 2022.
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Re: Heyward. Do you think Patrick Corbin's deal is also one of the worst of all time? Objectively terrible since 2020, but was an essential piece to the 2019 team that won the World Series.

Steve Adams
Less money, and Corbin was legitimately great in 2019 plus serviceable in 2020. It's not a good contract, but it's been better.

To be clear, I don't have any kind of ill will or hate toward Jason Heyward. The guy was a very good player who got a very big contract and it didn't work out. It happens. That was true of Chris Davis, too. Albert Pujols. The Tigers' last Miguel Cabrera extension. The Strasburg deal for the Nats.

These things happen.
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Can the Cards sustain the lead in the central? Pretty much theirs to lose now?

Steve Adams
They're two games up on Milwaukee, and Dakota Hudson is still a shaky fifth starter. I wouldn't call it theirs to lose. It's going to be a pretty close race.
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A lot of Cards fans mystified by the lack of respect for the trade deadline deals. I mean two solid SPs in a short-supplied market (one of whom we keep for 2023), and none of the crown jewels lost. Heavens, we even sold highish on Baders expiring contract despite his borked foot. Do you agree with the majority of pundits who cried 'meh' at Mozeliaks deals, or are you with us Cards fans that think he pulled of a reall shrewd one this year?

Steve Adams
Well, Bader's contract isn't expiring. He's signed through 2023.

Generally, I thought it was fine. Quintana's been good and will benefit from the Cards' defense. Montgomery gives them some much needed rotation help both now and in 2023, when they could be without Wainwright and Quintana.

I think it's only seen as "meh" because fans got their hopes up for Soto and Montas or something, but as I've said in prior chats here... Montas just seemed like the type of piece who was more expensive than the Cardinals are ever willing to go for.

Soto would've been great, and they're one of the few teams who could feasibly have matched up with the Padres in terms of pure talent, but it's all subjective. If the Nationals preferred the Padres' players, then maybe it wasn't as close as many on the outside would assume looking at third-party prospect rankings. There have been multiple reports that the Nats weren't as high on Liberatore as others, for instance (and those came out well before the trade was made).
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