A little bit of fun: ESPN "% chance of making the playoffs"

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belicose bumpkin
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A little bit of fun: ESPN "% chance of making the playoffs"

Post by belicose bumpkin »

https://twitter.com/search?q=espn%20cha ... ery&f=live
ESPN recently added the "% chance of making the playoffs" column to its MLB standings and the 1st place Cardinals are at 41.3% while a 3rd place .500 team (the Giants) supposedly have a 62.8% chance! Lots of other gaffs, I posted a link to some of the Twitter reactions I found just for laughs and not because my nose is out of joint over it(it isn't)!

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AdmiralKird
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Re: A little bit of fun: ESPN "% chance of making the playoffs"

Post by AdmiralKird »

The Washington Nationals, the worst team in baseball, who are 40 games under .500, have higher playoff odds than the Orioles who are 4 games above .500

Magneto2.0
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Re: A little bit of fun: ESPN "% chance of making the playoffs"

Post by Magneto2.0 »

AdmiralKird wrote:
August 14 22, 11:35 pm
The Washington Nationals, the worst team in baseball, who are 40 games under .500, have higher playoff odds than the Orioles who are 4 games above .500
They also have the Angels at a 62.8% chance of making the playoffs.

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JoeMcKim
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Re: A little bit of fun: ESPN "% chance of making the playoffs"

Post by JoeMcKim »

I don't understand why the Cardinals would have a lower chance of making the playoffs then the Brewers who're in 2nd place. These equations don't exist in the real world. The Brewers aren't the same team since trading Hader and their offense is anemic at best. The Brewers got by with a bad offense this year and last but if they don't have absolute top tier pitching performances they don't stand a chance of making the playoffs.

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heyzeus
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Re: A little bit of fun: ESPN "% chance of making the playoffs"

Post by heyzeus »

JoeMcKim wrote:
August 15 22, 6:43 am
I don't understand why the Cardinals would have a lower chance of making the playoffs then the Brewers who're in 2nd place. These equations don't exist in the real world. The Brewers aren't the same team since trading Hader and their offense is anemic at best. The Brewers got by with a bad offense this year and last but if they don't have absolute top tier pitching performances they don't stand a chance of making the playoffs.
Brewers also have a tougher rest of season schedule than the Cardinals, and not that many head to head games left.

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Famous Mortimer
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Re: A little bit of fun: ESPN "% chance of making the playoffs"

Post by Famous Mortimer »

JoeMcKim wrote:
August 15 22, 6:43 am
I don't understand why the Cardinals would have a lower chance of making the playoffs then the Brewers who're in 2nd place. These equations don't exist in the real world.
Two possibilities:

1. The more people argue about it, the more clicks they generate
2. We don't know the inputs they're using to get these percentages

Unless you think ESPN just hates the Cardinals?
AdmiralKird wrote:
August 14 22, 11:35 pm
The Washington Nationals, the worst team in baseball, who are 40 games under .500, have higher playoff odds than the Orioles who are 4 games above .500
Seems odd to be arguing over the difference between 0.1% and <0.1%, but you do you.

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vinsanity
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Re: A little bit of fun: ESPN "% chance of making the playoffs"

Post by vinsanity »

heyzeus wrote:
August 15 22, 7:47 am
JoeMcKim wrote:
August 15 22, 6:43 am
I don't understand why the Cardinals would have a lower chance of making the playoffs then the Brewers who're in 2nd place. These equations don't exist in the real world. The Brewers aren't the same team since trading Hader and their offense is anemic at best. The Brewers got by with a bad offense this year and last but if they don't have absolute top tier pitching performances they don't stand a chance of making the playoffs.
Brewers also have a tougher rest of season schedule than the Cardinals, and not that many head to head games left.
Cardinals have 23 more home games. That's 14.5 projected wins (based on current rate). 25 away games for 11.5 more wins. So 26 - 22 the rest of the way, using current win rates. 89 - 73

Brewers have 30 homes games, 17 wins. 19 away games. 10 wins. So 27 more wins puts them at 88 - 74.

The two head to head games are in STL.

The brewers have had an easier schedule than STL so far. STL is underperforming on pythag and MIL is overperforming.

I can't find anything that would suggest where they got this.

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Popeye_Card
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Re: A little bit of fun: ESPN "% chance of making the playoffs"

Post by Popeye_Card »

The only thing that makes sense to me is that this was maybe pre-season postseason odds?

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Re: A little bit of fun: ESPN "% chance of making the playoffs"

Post by phins »

vinsanity wrote:
August 15 22, 9:55 am
heyzeus wrote:
August 15 22, 7:47 am
JoeMcKim wrote:
August 15 22, 6:43 am
I don't understand why the Cardinals would have a lower chance of making the playoffs then the Brewers who're in 2nd place. These equations don't exist in the real world. The Brewers aren't the same team since trading Hader and their offense is anemic at best. The Brewers got by with a bad offense this year and last but if they don't have absolute top tier pitching performances they don't stand a chance of making the playoffs.
Brewers also have a tougher rest of season schedule than the Cardinals, and not that many head to head games left.
Cardinals have 23 more home games. That's 14.5 projected wins (based on current rate). 25 away games for 11.5 more wins. So 26 - 22 the rest of the way, using current win rates. 89 - 73

Brewers have 30 homes games, 17 wins. 19 away games. 10 wins. So 27 more wins puts them at 88 - 74.

The two head to head games are in STL.

The brewers have had an easier schedule than STL so far. STL is underperforming on pythag and MIL is overperforming.

I can't find anything that would suggest where they got this.
The simple answer is they believe the ROS the Brewers are better and their players will hit their projections for them while believing the St. Louis players are worse and will perform worse.

There are some key differences with ESPN's numbers and my numbers, mainly with the Giants, whom they clearly overvalue. I do have the Cardinals >50% to win the division now, but much of that is driven by schedule and already banked wins.

Always remember we live in a world where a simulation gets played out exactly once, while these projections are playing out simulations thousands of times and posting the percentages of those outcomes. Just like a baseball game where there are tons of possible outcomes but only one counts in the standings, all that matters is that the Cardinals find a way to be ahead of the Brewers at the end of the season and the projections that continue to tell us the Brewers are better than the Cardinals will just end up not mattering.

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JoeMcKim
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Re: A little bit of fun: ESPN "% chance of making the playoffs"

Post by JoeMcKim »

The Brewers have been the most overrated team the last 2 seasons. I know that the Cardinals got eliminated in the Wild Card game last year and the Brewers in the Division Series. But if the Cardinals had gotten into the division round last year they would've been far more likely to get past the Braves then the Brewers did. The Brewers had next to no offensive production in the playoffs last year.

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