Steve Adams' NL Central comments

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mikechamp
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Steve Adams' NL Central comments

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These comments came from a chat with MLB Trade Rumors' Steve Adams that occurred on March 28. (If you like him, you can find him on Twitter @Adams_Steve.)

A solid number of questions this week. I included 2 bonus Q&As: one about options and another about the most impactful rule change.

The link to the entire chat can be found here: https://live.jotcast.com/chat/chat-with ... 15411.html

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Do you think O Neill can play CF all year? Injury chances increase?

Steve Adams
I think it'll be a fluid situation and imagine he'll still spend some time in left field. He's missed 80-plus games himself over the past two seasons, so I don't think it's reasonable to just expect him to play 150+ in CF suddenly.
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Where does Pache end up? Seems like a struggling A's team is the type of team he would have ended up with. Anywhere going to give him a legitimate big league chance?

(This chat happened the day before Pache was traded.)

Steve Adams
I like him with the Rockies, Royals, Reds -- some rebuilding team without a clear answer in center. I suppose Colorado has Daza, but he's nowhere close to the same level of defender.
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Surprised Hiura wasn't claimed?

Steve Adams
I'm not. I wrote about how he didn't look like a lock to make the roster a few weeks ago and have indicated on multiple occasions that I just don't think he's very good or has much value:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/03/ ... tions.html

There's no way he's repeating last year's BABIP and HR/FB rates, and he has minimal (if any) defensive value. There's a lot of fixation on who he was as a rookie in 2019, but the approach has gotten so much worse since that point, and even that rookie season was hugely BABIP-dependent.

Hiura hits the hell out of the ball when he makes contact, but it's a short-side platoon, 1B-only skill set with so much swing-and-miss that the OBP is never going to be any good. That's not a skill set MLB teams care for, in general.
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Thoughts on the Hoerner extension? I'm not a fan of it in my opinion.

Steve Adams
It's such a weird deal for both parties. I can't remember an extension where I disliked it for both sides, but this fits the bill.

Hoerner's giving away his age-29 season and agreeing to head into free agency at 30 instead, and he's doing so at a point when he's already earning notable money in arbitration with no real risk of being non-tendered anytime in the future. We don't see players take that risk, because there's just not much upside.

It's even weirder for the Cubs, though. They're basically putting $35MM on the line right now in order to buy out one year of Nico at what could be an above-market rate if he doesn't start hitting for power -- and his batted-ball profile doesn't look like someone on the cusp of a power surge.

I'd have assumed a Hoerner extension would lock in a pair of free-agent seasons and maybe add an option or something; I don't feel like Hoerner got so much money that it was worth it for him to forgo free agency at 29, and I don't feel like the Cubs saved enough money since they priced the free-agent and arb years so aggressively. It's just a weird deal.

Tim Dierkes, Anthony Franco and I chatted about this a bit last night, and we all agreed it's just bizarre, especially from the team side (I think they liked Nico's end of it a bit better than I did).
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I understand what you're saying about Hiura, and there are certainly flaws, but he's a 25 year old with a career slugging percentage of .453. And as bad as last year looked, his OPS vs. RHP was .866. If I'm a dog crap team like the Tigers, Pirates, A's, Rockies, or Reds, why not at least give him a bunch of at bats at DH and see if you found a lottery ticket?

Steve Adams
That career slugging percentage includes his rookie season, which was a long time and a bunch of swing changes ago. He's slugged .394 over the past three seasons, and last year's numbers against righties were propped up by a .369 average on balls in play and ludicrous 37% homer-to-flyball rate. It's not sustainable, and you factor in striking out at a 40% clip against righties, it's just an ugly package all around.
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Which young outfielder has the best year, Nootbaar, Friedl, or Mitchell?

Steve Adams
Team Noot
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I'm more bullish on the Pirates making the playoffs than what I'm seeing out there. Where are you at on them?

Steve Adams
2024 at the earliest, for me, and that's assuming pretty good fortune in terms of prospect health/development.
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Who is trading for Burnes? What will his contract extension look like?

Steve Adams
I don't think he's signing an extension with the Brewers or anyone else. He's supremely confident, one of the five best pitchers in baseball, is two years from the open market and just hired Scott Boras.

As for a trade, I think it's likelier next offseason. I expect the Brewers to compete for the NL Central even after a pretty measured offseason.
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What will the Brewers do about Burnes since he will be a FA after this season? Think he gets traded and what does that look like?

Steve Adams
He's not a free agent after this season. He's controlled through 2024.
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Does Hoerner have more value as a 2B, or as a SS trade chip?

Steve Adams
He's more valuable at shortstop than at 2B, but the Cubs aren't playing him at SS and they're not trading him either. They love him. He'll be their regular 2B for several years and can still be a good player in that role -- just not quite as valuable if he were a good defensive SS with the same offensive output.

He'll probably still get SOME games at short. Dansby could get hurt, will need occasional breathers, etc.
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What’s up with these situations with Voit and León where they opt-out or get released and then sign again with the same team?

Steve Adams
They happen every year. In Voit's case, he re-signed on a new Major League deal, probably with a different salary and different language than the non-guaranteed deal he was on previously. The new deal also has a club option, which is a notable change.

Similar thing with Leon... original contract had the opt-out late in spring. He took it, surveyed interest, decided to stay where he was at. New deal with Texas might have some salary adjustments, new opt-out dates worked in, etc.

It's pretty common for guys to opt out/get released and then just re-sign with their current team.
How many times did the Yankees DFA Ryan Weber, let him explore FA, then re-sign him last year? Five?
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Does it count against the 5-times-per-season limit when a player is optioned to begin the season? Or does it only count after the season begins, when the player has been optioned from the active roster?

Steve Adams
Initial option to the minors out of camp also counts.
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Which change do you see having the biggest impact this season--shift restrictions, pitch/hit clocks, or bigger bases?

Steve Adams
Clocks are going to meaningfully speed up the game. I don't think the larger bases are going to lead to a bunch of guys stealing 80+, nor do I think a wide swath of pull hitters are suddenly going to add 50 points to their average or anything.
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