Mark Polishuk's NL Central comments

Discuss all things Cardinals Baseball
User avatar
mikechamp
Hall Of Famer
Posts: 10132
Joined: April 17 06, 5:05 pm
Location: Southwestern Illinois

Mark Polishuk's NL Central comments

Post by mikechamp »

These comments came from a chat with MLB Trade Rumors' Mark Polishuk that occurred on May 29.

I think there are a couple of entries that could spark some debate. There are 2 bonus Q&As: one about a HoF prediction and another about the MLB's minimum age.

The link to the entire chat can be found here: https://live.jotcast.com/chat/mlbtr-liv ... 15925.html

-----------------------------------------------------------------
Who do you see the Cubs selling at the deadline? In this part of the “rebuild” do you see Jed and Carter going for prospects or selling to try to solidify the bullpen?

Mark Polishuk
It might be a little early (and the NL too compacted) to call the Cubs sellers just yet, but things obviously aren't looking great for the team right now.

In terms of trade chips, the pending free agents (Bellinger, Hendricks, Gomes, Fulmer, etc.) would naturally be the first ones on the trade market. Stroman is the big question mark since even as a rental, he'd get the Cubs the biggest return, but Chicago also might want to try extending his contract

That's the other factor in the Cubs being sellers....they've invested enough in this payroll that they're looking to reload for 2024. So they'd want younger players who could conceivably provide help at the MLB level immediately.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Is there any credibility to The Athletic article about the Reds trading Jonathan India to make room for Elly de la Cruz? I think moving him to the outfield or DH makes much more sense.

Mark Polishuk
The piece seemed more like a hypothetical than a clear "the Reds are exploring trading India" type of item, and frankly, I really doubt Cincinnati would actually move a proven player until they have a better idea of what they have in their many prospects.

The Reds' unusually big glut of infield prospects might mean that India does get dealt down the road, yet not all of these prospects will end up being reliable MLB-level players.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Do you see Andrew Abbott or Gavin Williams being called up anytime soon?

Mark Polishuk
Allen and Bibee have done well enough that Cleveland might not have quite as great a need for Williams as it seemed a few weeks ago, but I do expect him to be in MLB at some point in 2023. Man, the Guardians just keep producing these young arms like clockwork!

Abbott is another interesting young prospect who is racking up strikeouts like mad. He'll be in Cincinnati at some point perhaps a bit later in the season, since while the Reds may have a lot of infielders, the pitching is another story.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Is this predictable "infield glut" for the Reds just not confirmation that trading Luis Castillo as opposed to signing him was a mistake? Reds seem ready to compete and Marte/Arroyo just do not fill needs.

Mark Polishuk
The Reds weren't in a position to contend, and Castillo might well have left in free agency. I can understand their logic in dealing Castilo, even if I disagree with the team's overall decision to completely tear down what looked like at least a decent roster a couple of years ago.

And the reason that teams load up on middle infield prospects if they can is because that shortstops are usually good enough athletes that they can more easily switch to other positions.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
What's your take on Milwaukee? They've got a fantastic young group playing right now, and with Urias beginning his rehab, their offense can only get stronger. The bullpen has been consistent this far as well with Williams having full control of the bullpen. Even without Woodruff, the rotation has been good enough to hold the lead over a weak NL Central.

Mark Polishuk
They definitely seem to have the fewest questions of any team in the NLC, which is saying something considering all of the Brewers' pitching injuries. I like their chances of winning the division but obviously there's a lot of baseball yet to be played.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Thoughts on the Brewers stance with the deadline a month away? They seem to have gone the cheap route with Winker and Ruf acquisitions compared to last year. Will they be buyers or sell some key pieces like Burnes?

How likely is it for the brewers to sell at the deadline? They seem to have gone the cheap route for a few positions this year (Winker, Voit, Ruf) and the bullpen is horrible. Will Burnes get moved?

Will the Brewers part with one of their Aces in a trade with the Yankees?

Mark Polishuk
I feel like I answer this question in the same way every week, but here we go again... it would be downright shocking if Burnes was dealt. The Brewers are on record about regretting the clubhouse impact of the Hader trade, and moving Burnes when the team is in contention would go over even worse with both the players and the fans.

This doesn't mean that Milwaukee will never trade Burnes, but they're surely not going to do it this summer unless they somehow fall completely out of the race.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
DeJong to the Dodgers?

Mark Polishuk
LA will want to see a longer sample size before making an offer on DeJong, because he's had a few hot starts in the last couple of years before his production drastically tails off.

DeJong does seem like he might be dealt regardless of whether or not the Cardinals are in the race or not, since moving DeJong does open up some space on the crowded STL roster. It remains to be seen if the Cards can move him without eating a good chunk of the $6MM still owed to him.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Mitch Keller: Building block or trade chip?

Mark Polishuk
Building block. It appears Pittsburgh feels the same way since they've been talking extension.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/05/ ... eller.html
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Do you think Wainwright makes the HOF if he gets to 200 wins?

Mark Polishuk
I think he's making it anyway.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Does AZ target Bieber/Cease or a Montgomery type in July? Can they offload Carson Kelly this year or not enough time to build his value?

Mark Polishuk
If either Bieber or Cease are actually available, they're the kind of controllable frontline starters that Arizona might be willing to make a splash to obtain. It's possible they might aim lower for a rental type (i.e. your suggestion of Montgomery) since theoretically Gallen and Kelly already provide so much stability at the top of the rotation. But man, a really good third starter would not only help the Snakes' chances of making the playoffs, it would make them intriguing in the playoffs.
Carson Kelly basically has no value at this point, considering his struggles and the fact that he might not even be back from the IL until July
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Oakland made the wrong call on Murphy. Gorman was available.

Mark Polishuk
Donovan/Graceffo/Nootbaar was reportedly what the A's wanted for Murphy, which is itself an interesting what-if for the Cardinals.

It's probably safe to assume that Gorman's name at least came up, given that the Cards and A's probably exchanged tons of names in prospective trade talks. However, as good as Gorman has looked this year, would he have broken out to this extent (or at all) if he'd been playing within the dismal circumstances of this A's season?
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Who has the hotter seat?? David Ross who’s looking like an inexperienced bridge manager or Jed Hoyer who has been in rebuild and has now been a part of 4 big contracts of Heyward, Stroman, Swanson, and Taillon that haven’t shown much promise towards winning. I’m sure Jed’s last shot will be the prospect acquired from the Darvish and big 3 trades.

Mark Polishuk
Ross is signed through 2023 and Hoyer through 2025, so Ross would likely be the first one fired if the Cubs do continue disappointing and decided to make changes.

Hoyer has had some moves backfire to date, but I'm not sure he'd face as much pressure or extra heat.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Cole Hamels has basically the same stat line as Wainwright, but people don't seem to view him as a HOFer. (I don't personally feel that Wainwright is either.)

Mark Polishuk
Wainwright staying with one team his whole career will carry some extra weight with HOF voters, even if Hamels had the higher peak of the two.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
At what point do the Bucs cut bait and trade Mountain, VV, Santana ( hurt), ..etc...

Mark Polishuk
Velasquez and Santana both being hurt at the moment doesn't help their value, of course, but I don't think the Pirates will necessarily wait until the last minute to sell.

They're not a team that expected to contend in 2023 anyway, so unless they get on track and start winning really quickly, their April performance is easier to view as a bit of an aberration. Cherington still has his eye on the big picture, and will move veterans at the deadline unless the Bucs are legitimately close to a playoff spot.

It might even resemble the Orioles last year, when the O's still did some selling even while in a pennant race.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Make your statement: which player with less than 3 years of MLB experience makes the Hall in 20 years?!

Mark Polishuk
Man, this is bold!

My pick is Adley Rutschman.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Probably a dumb question, but is there a minimum age for being called up to the majors? For example, the Padres 16yr old catching prospect... could they call him up right now if they wanted?

Mark Polishuk
I did some googling since I wasn't sure of the answer, but as near as I can tell from my intensive 45-second search, there is no minimum age. Joe Nuxhall was the youngest player ever at age 15, but that was in 1944 when a lot of big league regulars were in WW2 and rosters were thin.
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Tags:

User avatar
Famous Mortimer
Perennial All-Star
Posts: 3636
Joined: November 14 14, 5:23 am
Location: Cherokee

Re: Mark Polishuk's NL Central comments

Post by Famous Mortimer »

His no-nonsense "Waino gets in the Hall" is an interesting one. I think by the time voting comes around, he'll have been a beloved national broadcaster for several years. The "whoops I lied about sticky stuff" moment already seems to have been forgotten.

User avatar
Richie Allen
Perennial All-Star
Posts: 7268
Joined: December 22 06, 1:06 am

Re: Mark Polishuk's NL Central comments

Post by Richie Allen »

That took me a bit by surprise too. Sometimes I think your own guys are tough to measure up against the league. I never really tought of him as a HOF pitcher but I have to admit, the numbers needed have obviously changed a lot in the last decade or two.

User avatar
haltz
Hall Of Famer
Posts: 22034
Joined: November 9 06, 6:45 am
Location: a proud midwestern metropolis

Re: Mark Polishuk's NL Central comments

Post by haltz »

Richie Allen wrote:
May 31 23, 4:31 pm
That took me a bit by surprise too. Sometimes I think your own guys are tough to measure up against the league. I never really tought of him as a HOF pitcher but I have to admit, the numbers needed have obviously changed a lot in the last decade or two.
Yeah, same here. 46 WAR and no CYA puts him in the HOVG for me, but there are some things he has going for him as the face of a franchise and iconic postseason performance. Peak Wainwright was definitely more dominant than Jim Kaat or Jack Morris. Does he slot in somewhere between them and Roy Halladay or Whitey Ford? I could see it maybe.

Mark Buehrle and Jon Lester are 5x All Stars, crucial pieces of noteworthy World Series teams, with career 117 ERA+ (all identical to Waino at the moment), and I don't think Lester gets in and it doesn't look good for Buehrle who has them both by about 15 WAR.

Magneto2.0
Hall Of Famer
Posts: 17326
Joined: June 16 07, 2:12 pm

Re: Mark Polishuk's NL Central comments

Post by Magneto2.0 »

Waino isn't a HOF, but if he didn't miss those two seasons in his peak, I think he'd have a legit shot.

User avatar
CardsofSTL
All Hail the GDT Master
Posts: 47817
Joined: April 26 11, 6:06 am
Location: Columbus, OH

Re: Mark Polishuk's NL Central comments

Post by CardsofSTL »

Not sure Wainwright's numbers get him in...but he's certainly a fairly universally liked person which maybe will have some sway with the people who vote. Depending on who else is on the ballot I could see him squeak in at some point.

User avatar
Joe Shlabotnik
Hall Of Famer
Posts: 23105
Joined: October 12 06, 2:21 pm
Location: Baseball Ref Bullpen
Contact:

Re: Mark Polishuk's NL Central comments

Post by Joe Shlabotnik »

CardsofSTL wrote:
May 31 23, 8:53 pm
Not sure Wainwright's numbers get him in...but he's certainly a fairly universally liked person which maybe will have some sway with the people who vote. Depending on who else is on the ballot I could see him squeak in at some point.
How many other HoF'ers sang an Opening Day National Anthem? That's got to count for something!

User avatar
Transmogrified Tiger
Puppy Murderer
Posts: 9334
Joined: April 25 06, 6:07 pm
Location: Across the River

Re: Mark Polishuk's NL Central comments

Post by Transmogrified Tiger »

haltz wrote:
May 31 23, 7:01 pm
Mark Buehrle and Jon Lester are 5x All Stars, crucial pieces of noteworthy World Series teams, with career 117 ERA+ (all identical to Waino at the moment), and I don't think Lester gets in and it doesn't look good for Buehrle who has them both by about 15 WAR.
I think the scale of postseason achievement might be a tipping point in Lester and Wainwright's favor. Buehrle only had 6 postseason starts and 30 IP with a 4.11 ERA, while Wainwright and Lester both have an order of magnitude more postseason exposure and success(114 IP and 2.83 ERA for Wainwright, 154 IP and 2.51 ERA for Lester)

User avatar
mikechamp
Hall Of Famer
Posts: 10132
Joined: April 17 06, 5:05 pm
Location: Southwestern Illinois

Re: Mark Polishuk's NL Central comments

Post by mikechamp »

Joe Shlabotnik wrote:
May 31 23, 9:07 pm
CardsofSTL wrote:
May 31 23, 8:53 pm
Not sure Wainwright's numbers get him in...but he's certainly a fairly universally liked person which maybe will have some sway with the people who vote. Depending on who else is on the ballot I could see him squeak in at some point.
How many other HoF'ers sang an Opening Day National Anthem? That's got to count for something!
Yeah, but I don't think it counts in the positive column.

:pale:

User avatar
heyzeus
Everday Unicorn
Posts: 41342
Joined: April 21 06, 10:14 am
Location: Austin, TX
Contact:

Re: Mark Polishuk's NL Central comments

Post by heyzeus »

The Jack Morris comp seems right to me for Waino, and I could see his path to the hall being similar. Maybe faster if, like y'all said, he has a good broadcasting career lined up.

Post Reply