Steve Adams' NL Central comments

[mikechamp]

These comments came from a chat with MLB Trade Rumors' writer Steve Adams that occurred on September 17. (If you like him, you can find him on Twitter @Adams_Steve.)

Not many questions this week, but some long answers. I included 2 bonus Q&As: one about the Giants FO situation surrounding the Chapman extension, and another about velocity vs. injury. Enjoy!

The link to the entire chat can be found here: https://live.jotcast.com/chat/chat-with ... 19185.html
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(A Reds fan asked...)

In your opinion who are some players that could be non-tender candidates this offseason?

Steve Adams
Non-tender candidates on the Reds specifically? Santiago Espinal comes to mind. Leaguewide... a few off the cuff: Mike Yastrzemski, Trent Grisham, Patrick Wisdom, Luis Urias, Leody Taveras. I don't know if the Guardians will straight NT Lane Thomas, but I could see them trying to move him rather than pay his arb price after the struggles he's had in Cleveland.
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Would the Red Sox consider trading Duran while his value is so high for a starting pitcher?

Steve Adams
I've seen lots of Red Sox fans suggest this over the second half of the season and I continue to be perplexed by it. Duran is playing at a pace that would garner legitimate MVP consideration in a lot of seasons. (Not this one, with Judge and BWJ going absolutely bananas, of course.) He's controlled for four more seasons after this one and is only entering his first arb year.

I get the excitement over Roman Anthony. Abreu has had a nice season. Rafaela is at least going to be a plus-plus defensive CF with questionable offense -- potentially a star if he can be more consistent at the plate.

There's still no way I'm moving Duran. I guess if the Pirates offered you Skenes or something, sure, but that's obviously not happening, ha.
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How likely will a Devin Williams trade happen this off-season?

Steve Adams
The Brewers will be open to it. He'll make $10.5MM after that no-brainer club option is picked up. That's about 9% of their current payroll, which is a lot for the Brewers. And they've historically shown a willingness -- if not a preference -- to move star players when things reach this juncture.

Its notable that they didn't move Willy Adames, but it's easier to pay an All-Star caliber shortstop $12MM than to pay a reliever with recent back issues $10.5MM -- no matter how dominant said reliever is.

It's not a lock, but there's a very real chance he moves this winter, particularly since the return would have to be fairly large.
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Chances that the Brewers tender Civale? Woodruff, Peralta, Myers, Civale, Rea seems a decent starting 5.

Steve Adams
He's been pretty darn good in Milwaukee, and they can't bank on Woodruff returning to a full slate of high-quality innings, nor can they assume Rea/Myers simply repeat this performance. Civale's going to cost less on a one-year deal in arbitration than a lot of shakier rebound candidates would cost in free agency. He's very likely to be tendered a contract, in my opinion.
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Players' and agents' egos being what they are, I think it's a cinch that Bellinger will opt out, and I am surprised that others think otherwise, or that it could go either way. Am I missing something?

Steve Adams
I don't think he will, but that's largely because he has the second opt-out next winter. He can take home a $27.5MM salary next season, and then if he opts out after that, he still gets the $5MM buyout on his $25MM player option for 2026.

So he's looking at another $32.5MM by opting in ... I don't think he's played well enough this season to forgo that type of one-year commitment. He can pocket that, then try to max out in the 2025-26 offseason when he's, ahem, "only" walking away from a net $20MM.

If he and Boras think $100MM+ is there right now, go for it, but I'm not sure I think that's the case, and he can earn almost one-third of that anyhow just by staying another year in Chicago and then trying again next winter. Worst-case scenario, he flops in '25 and "has to settle" for the net $20MM in 2026.
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What do you make of the report that small-stake owner Buster Posey negotiated the framework of the Giants deal with Matt Chapman? A sign of things to come? I mean, where there's smoke there is fire, right? What's surprising is that the story came out with such clarity around the fact that "ownership was frustrated" with the inability to close deals.

Steve Adams
(This is only a fraction of the questions I've gotten on this, so seems like one to take! Ha)

First and foremost, I do not have any first-hand knowledge of the Giants' plans for the front office. I also loathe speculating about someone losing their job -- particularly what I presume is their dream job. I try not to make unfounded speculation about a manager, GM, etc. being cut loose because I am aware that we have a decent platform here with 800K+ followers on Twitter, that teams, players, agencies etc. all check MLBTR regularly.

With that preamble aside, I cannot think of many instances where ownership has effectively done an end-around because of frustration over their top baseball ops executive's approach to a contract negotiation -- at least not in this fashion. There are myriad examples of Scott Boras or Casey Close (Excel Sports) or whichever agent negotiating directly with ownership on a free agent. Hal Steinbrenner called Aaron Judge to close that deal. They'd known each other for years. Ditto, to a lesser extent, with Jim Crane and Justin Verlander.

This feels different than all of those scenarios. Again, I do not know that Zaidi's job is in trouble personally. But this looks like a fifth losing season in six years, and this is a strange situation where ownership has by all accounts gone over his head to get a deal done. It strikes me, just logically speaking, that it'd be hard to look your fans in the eye (metaphorically) and say, "We didn't trust Farhan Zaidi to get the Chapman deal done, but he's still the guy we want running the offseason and building this team."

Also, it seems highly unlikely that the leak would've come from Zaidi here. Someone got this information out to the public, and it seems far likelier that it came from someone within ownership. (Not saying Posey specifically, of course) I don't know why you'd let that information get out and then just continue operating as normal. It's a strange situation, and from a purely third-party standpoint, it does not seem like a good omen for current baseball ops leadership. That is my opinion on the matter -- again stressing that I do not personally know or have an inkling of their plans with regard to baseball operations leadership.
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Is there too much emphasis on speed in pitching? We need more pitchers like Greg Maddox. The Dodgers have been completely devastated with injuries.

Steve Adams
If developing a pitcher with command anywhere near the vicinity of the greatest command pitcher in MLB history were as simple as "stop trying to throw so hard," I don't think guys would be so focused on velocity.

Also, not saying he'd get lit up in 2024 or anything, but a lot has changed in terms of the quality of hitters and their offensive approach since Maddux pitched. He'd probably still be great -- 80 command is 80 command -- but he wouldn't be facing pitchers in the NL, he'd be up against far fewer guys dropping down sac bunts, his opponents wouldn't be shortening up and trying to slap a single the other way on two strikes... it's not the same game, so I don't think we can just assume everything about his career would carry over to the modern game.
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[Famous Mortimer]

The Duran question is a perfect example of how some section of baseball fandom view players - the instant they have any positive value, trade them for the next generation. Always looking forward, never enjoying what you have at the moment.