Steve Adams' NL Central comments

mikechamp · Post by **mikechamp** » December 3 24, 5:23 pm

These comments came from a chat with MLB Trade Rumors' writer Steve Adams that occurred on December 3. (If you like him, you can find him on Twitter @Adams_Steve and Bluesky @adams-steve.bsky.social.)

A lot of good questions again this week. I included 2 bonus Q&As: one about golden at-bats and one about signing bonuses and the CBT. Enjoy!

The link to the entire chat can be found here: https://live.jotcast.com/chat/chat-with ... 19732.html
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Does Nolan Arenado have a no trade clause in his contract? Would he be a fit for Angels?

Steve Adams
As we've written multiple times, yes he does. He'd also only waive it to land with a clear contender, so I think the Angels are out.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
From reading Katie Woo's piece this morning, it seems the Cardinals have an unrealistically high assessment of Matz's trade value (caveats caveats on the Cards trying to set a strong negotiating position through the media). In the past three years, Matz has been mostly hurt, and when healthy, he has been mostly bad. Brief glimpses of talent from a 34-year-old are not enough to bring back anything of value. Probably "minor league depth". At best a 27-year old AA pitcher who profiles as an AAAA reliever. Am I being unrealistic or is John Mozeliak? What do you think is a realistic return? And who are potential match ups?

Steve Adams
Matz at $12MM and one year probably isn't wildly off from what he'd get on the open market. If the Cards paid maybe half the deal, I can see them getting a quasi-decent return. At face value though, yeah... Matz at $12MM isn't going to net much of a prospect.
But in a world where Frankie Montas gets $17MM per year with an opt-out coming off a near 5.00 ERA in a slate of 30 five-inning starts, Matz at $12MM isn't an outrageous salary.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
What would it take for Halos to get Bellinger?

Steve Adams
Take on the rest of the money he's owed?

I don't think the Cubs are getting much prospect help unless they pay down some of the deal.
Darragh and I talked about Bellinger a decent amount on the podcast episode we recorded this morning. It'll drop tomorrow.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Montgomery to the Red Sox, Candelario to the Diamondbacks, and Yoshida + Chris Murphy to the Reds.

Steve Adams
The Reds are taking on a worse contract to buy a depth starter who's recovering from TJS? I don't see that.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Do you see the Brewers being able to trade Hoskins to free up the $18 million to spend on other needs through free agency?

Steve Adams
Not unless they're taking another contract back. Hoskins isn't getting $18MM on the open market right now. Could try to dump him on the A's or something, but you'd need to include a decent prospect to shed the whole $18MM.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Is Civale worth the projected 8 million he’d get in arbitration? Brewers do seem like they need some safe innings from their rotation, after cutting ties with Rea and Wilson. Counting on Woodruff, Hall, and Ashby for innings seems risky.

Steve Adams
I think he is, yeah, but some of my colleagues (Anthony Franco particularly) thinks he'll be traded, which is plenty feasible. The Brewers have a good track record of finding more affordable starters and have moved mid-tier veterans in this salary bracket before.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
I know the Cubs weren’t going to shop at the top tier for SP, but Matthew Boyd? Why?

Steve Adams
Boyd was one of my favorite buys in the middle tier of starters and I thought his price tag was fine. But going to the Cubs specifically is so weird for them. This is another podcast topic on tomorrow's episode, so you can get my full thoughts there, but in a nutshell: I do not understand why the Cubs aren't aggressively trying to win an eminently winnable division. Hell, I don't understand why no one in the NL Central is taking that stance.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Have you seen the Cubs/Phillies/Mariners rumor? Thoughts?

Steve Adams
I've been asked about this so much. It's not a "proposed trade" -- it's a speculative idea from ESPN's David Schoenfield. He characterizes it as such.

It's one idea based on the teams' needs and payroll subjects. I don't think the Mariners want to trade from the rotation. Them taking on Nico Hoerner coming off flexor surgery and a generally middle-of-the-road hitter like Bohm doesn't drastically improve the offense so much as it just raises the floor.

Also, the Mariners aren't trading Harry Ford to get Hoerner/Bohm.

It's a fun thought exercise, I guess, but the specifics of it don't work for me and the level of attention it's getting feels disproportionate considering it's literally just one person saying "Hey this could be fun in my opinion."

And to be clear, that's not a knock on David. I speculate on stuff all the time. Everyone who writes for a large public-facing outlet does. But sometimes these things take on a life of their own in a way that I find surprising. This is one of those.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Do you think Bellinger seems like a good fit for the Yankees? The contract isn't *that* awful and he still produces. He could cover either 1B or OF, depending on if Soto signs there or not. Even if the Cubs take like $5mil AAV off to make his deal more palatable, it sounds like it wouldn't take that much of a prospect haul to get him.

Steve Adams
Yeah, Bellinger to the Bronx makes plenty of sense regardless of the Soto outcome. Obviously it's easier to take on the money if Soto departs, but it's a short-term deal they could stomach. Gives them some cover at 1B and in the outfield corners, both potential positions of need. I agree that the prospect cost is going to be minimal.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
I don’t see the Brewers as a dominant force in a weak NL Central. Can’t the Cubs open their wallets & field a team that will at least make the playoffs?

Steve Adams
They should. They apparently do not want to. Frustrating for all you Cubs fans out there I'm sure -- but that appears to be reality. Shopping in the middle and hoping for enough in-house growth to get over the line. It's weird. The Cubs just don't seem motivated to act like the big-market team they are.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
If you are in Nick Krall's shoes, taking into consideration salary, injury risk, roster construction, etc... would you prefer Teo Hernandez, Tyler O'Neill or Michael Conforto?

Steve Adams
(Nick Krall is the Reds' president of bb ops, for those who don't follow these things as closely)

I think the order you have them in. O'Neill probably has the highest ceiling and is younger, but Hernandez feels like the best bet to stay healthy and produce. I could see the argument for chasing that ceiling and preferring some of TON's defensive floor though. Conforto's a clear third for me.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Christian Walker is a good fit for the Brewers. A’s are “looking to add payroll” and we know it’s not likely for long term commitments. If the Brewers signed Walker, would the A’s be a realistic fit to trade Hoskins to as a salary dump?

Steve Adams
I think you could only sign Walker if you had a Hoskins trade already completed or lined up. And even then, first base just isn't a place the Brewers have historically spent that kind of coin. Even Hoskins' deal was kind of out of character (and it also didn't work out like they hoped).

If you're looking to dump a short-term deal though, heck yeah call the A's. They want to add payroll to retain their revenue-sharing status and most free agents aren't going to want to sign on to play in a Triple-A stadium.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
If the Reds were to trade for Alec Bohm, would Emilio Pagan be a starting point? What else would they have to add?

Steve Adams
Pagan picked up his player option, probably because he knew he wasn't getting $8MM in free agency. Adding him to a Bohm deal would be counterproductive and require the Reds to give up more. The Phillies are shopping Bohm around but not because he's an underwater asset. If they thought that, they'd have non-tendered him.

They're shopping him around because they have an inflexible roster and he's one of the few movable pieces who could hold appeal to other teams and be realistically replaced (by an upgrade) via free agency/trade.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Would the Royals have a legit shot to trade for Bellinger?

Steve Adams
I think any team that's willing to take on Bellinger's whole contract has a reasonable chance to acquire him.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
-----------------------------------------------------------------
I hate the golden at bat concept being tossed around. Any thoughts?

Steve Adams
Have about 80 of these questions/comments already, ha. Assume there will be more.
And yes, I think it's stupid and fundamentally changes the game in a way that other recent rule changes generally have not.

I am also very aware that the league has floated possibilities of various rule changes for years and even experimented on some in partner leagues like the Atlantic League and Frontier League that simply haven't/won't come to pass. I don't think it's something that's really going to be considered anytime soon, and the pushback is probably vocal and visceral enough that it helps quash the possibility. I get wanting to add more "excitement" to the game, but this feels gimmicky and cheap.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
How does Blake Snell's signing bonus work for CBT?

Steve Adams
Offsets some of the depreciation that's factored in for the deferrals. Jon Heyman just reported the full breakdown of the deal and added that the MLBPA values it at just over $150MM. League's number will probably be different. But I expect the AAV to come with something like a $30-32MM hit rather than the face value $36.4MM.
-----------------------------------------------------------------