Scott Rolen for Troy Glaus (Update: Finalized!)

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Ace
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Re: Scott Rolen for Troy Glaus almost a done deal

Post by Ace »

I'd be satisfied with this trade. Who knows if Rolen will be fully healthy next year or ever again. Who knows if he'll ever be able to catch up to a 92+ fastball again. Who knows how well he would of played for LaRussa.

He's still a going to be a hell of a defensive third baseman, but this is actually a little more than I thought we would get for him.

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cpebbles
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Re: Scott Rolen for Troy Glaus almost a done deal

Post by cpebbles »

In case I didn't make my point crystal-clear just by posting WARP data, this is an incredibly stupid trade and Mozeliak has sunk past the point of redemption when he completes it.

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InvincibleCakeEater
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Re: Scott Rolen for Troy Glaus almost a done deal

Post by InvincibleCakeEater »

If Rolen is healthy enough to pass the physical I don't see how this is a good deal.

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Re: Scott Rolen for Troy Glaus almost a done deal

Post by Magneto2.0 »

cpebbles wrote:In case I didn't make my point crystal-clear just by posting WARP data, this is an incredibly stupid trade and Mozeliak has sunk past the point of redemption when he completes it.
That's all fine and dandy. Fact is, Glaus has a better chance of being healthy again, and hitting for much more power, with a more attractive contract and is younger too.

Rolen is still better defensively. That's about it.

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Cole Burns
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Re: Scott Rolen for Troy Glaus almost a done deal

Post by Cole Burns »

Whether or not this is a good deal will depend on how much cash is being sent to Toronto.

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cpebbles
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Re: Scott Rolen for Troy Glaus almost a done deal

Post by cpebbles »

Magneto2.0 wrote:That's all fine and dandy. Fact is, Glaus has a better chance of being healthy again, and hitting for much more power, with a more attractive contract and is younger too.
You don't know that, and I don't know that. You know who will know that? The doctors that will perform the physical before the Blue Jays complete the deal.
Rolen is still better defensively. That's about it.
When two players put up similar offensive numbers (And it is being very kind to Glaus to say that, as 2000 is the only year he has surpassed Rolen's .297 career EQA), an approximate 30 run per season difference in defense is plenty.

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Jmodene
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Re: Scott Rolen for Troy Glaus almost a done deal

Post by Jmodene »

Well, let's see here...

Glaus is 31 (turns 32 on August 31); Rolen is 32 (turns 33 on April 4). So Troy has the edge on age by about 17 months.

Glaus has had more power years, hitting 47, 41, 37, and 38 homers in 2000, 2001, 2005 and 2006, respectively. Rolen has never hit 40 homers; his peak was 34 in 2004.

However, Troy has never been a high average hitter - his career high is .284 and his career average is .254. Rolen has hit as high as .314 and his career average is .283.

OBA is pretty close - Glaus at .358; Rolen at .372. SLG is also close; Glaus at .500 and Rolen at .507.

Both have had injury seasons; Glaus was limited to 319 AB in 2003, 207 AB in 2004, and 395 AB in 2007 - but in those 264 games and 911 AB, he still managed to hit 54 home runs and drive in 154; in 2003-4 combined, he played in 149 games and hit 34 HR with 92 RBI. So although Glaus has missed time, he remained productive - he just wasn't out there. Rolen, by contrast, now has a 3-year history of injury, 2005-7, in which he's played 310 games, taken 1109 AB, and hit 35 HR while driving in 181. In his two worst injury seasons (to contrast with Glaus' two worst), 2005 and 2007, Rolen played in a combined total of 168 games, took 588 AB, and hit 13 HR while driving in 86. So it seems to me that Rolen's injury problems have impacted his production considerably more than Glaus's injuries have.

Their career numbers, pro-rated for 162 games:

Rolen .283/.372/.507, 28 HR, 109 RBI, 118 K, 77 BB, 103 R, and a 126 OPS+.
Glaus .254/.358/.500, 36 HR, 101 RBI, 152 K, 91 BB, 100 R, and a 121 OPS+.

Defensively, of course, Rolen is the superior (since he's superior to any other third baseman out there), but Glaus is no slouch; he has an RF of 2.55 and a FPCT of .949 to Rolen's 2.84 RF and .966 FPCT.

Contracts: Glaus is signed thru 2008 (final year of a 4-year deal) which will pay him $12.75 million this year; he got an option year added to the deal when he was traded to Toronto that, if exercised, would pay him $11.25 million for 2009. Rolen is signed thru 2010 at $12 million for each season.

I hate to lose Scott Rolen but this is not a bad deal. Glaus is somewhat more likely to be productive than Rolen and he'll be back on natural turf; his range factor his one year in Arizona was 2.92. If it's not a good fit after all, we can decline the option and we're only out the $12.75 million for this year only; we'll be off the hook for Rolen's $24 million for 2009 and 2010 (which is probably why we'll have to give the Jays some cash since they're taking a $36 million risk here).

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Re: Scott Rolen for Troy Glaus almost a done deal

Post by cpebbles »

Jmodene wrote:Defensively, of course, Rolen is the superior (since he's superior to any other third baseman out there), but Glaus is no slouch; he has an RF of 2.55 and a FPCT of .949 to Rolen's 2.84 RF and .966 FPCT.
Glaus is in fact a slouch, and his teams have been looking for ways to move him to 1B for years now. -5 UZR last year to Rolen's +24. -8 vs. +19 per 150 games between 2000 and 2007.

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Re: Scott Rolen for Troy Glaus almost a done deal

Post by thrill »

The Scott Rolen era in StL ends as ingloriously as in Philly.

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Re: Scott Rolen for Troy Glaus almost a done deal

Post by Magneto2.0 »

Rasmus, Pujols, Glaus, Duncan and Ankiel looks much more intimidating, then it would if Rolen was there instead of Glaus.

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