Game Two: Post Game Thread

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jim
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Post by jim »

Michael wrote:BTW, anyone else annoyed with Casey leaning in the that pitch?
I love that he leaned into the pitch.

What I'm annoyed at was that the ump let him get away with it.

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Post by jagtrader »

Michael wrote:BTW, anyone else annoyed with Casey leaning in the that pitch?
It was blatant and obvious and it never gets called. They might as well erase the rule from existence.

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Post by TimeForGuinness »

jagtrader wrote:
Michael wrote:BTW, anyone else annoyed with Casey leaning in the that pitch?
It was blatant and obvious and it never gets called. They might as well erase the rule from existence.
Conspiracy?

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EastonBlues22
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Post by EastonBlues22 »

Michael wrote:
EastonBlues22 wrote:Power isn't what we needed in that spot, what we needed was a ball in play.
They have more power AND they hit for a better avg.
We're not talking about who's going to have the better average at the end of next season...we're talking about a one AB shot here.

You're assuming that the AB you're going to get from Wilson/Encarnacion/Duncan is one of their "average" ABs...and you're also assuming that Molina is going to have one of his "average" ABs when you make that statement. But those averages are composites of both their hot streaks and their cold streaks...it's not how they perform in any given AB.

Molina is clearly in a hot streak...he's seeing the ball well and hitting it where it's pitched. He's not chasing balls out of the zone, especially not breaking pitches.

Wilson, Encarnacion, and Duncan are in extended cold streaks...all of them are chasing balls out of the zone (breaking and otherwise), and none of them are hitting the ball where it is pitched.

Eventually Molina will cool and the others will eventaully warm, but for a one AB shot...I want the guy who's giving me the good ABs now...whoever that is. This isn't a one or two game thing from Molina...this is two plus weeks now. Same goes for the other guys. These are extended, and visually obvious, trends...and I don't think a lot of data from multiple months ago should trump it.

Especially when the three hitters in question are marginal at best in their own rights...

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Post by Michael »

EastonBlues22 wrote:
Michael wrote:
EastonBlues22 wrote:Power isn't what we needed in that spot, what we needed was a ball in play.
They have more power AND they hit for a better avg.
We're not talking about who's going to have the better average at the end of next season...we're talking about a one AB shot here.

You're assuming that the AB you're going to get from Wilson/Encarnacion/Duncan is one of their "average" ABs...and you're also assuming that Molina is going to have one of his "average" ABs when you make that statement. But those averages are composites of both their hot streaks and their cold streaks...it's not how they perform in any given AB.

Molina is clearly in a hot streak...he's seeing the ball well and hitting it where it's pitched. He's not chasing balls out of the zone, especially not breaking pitches.

Wilson, Encarnacion, and Duncan are in extended cold streaks...all of them are chasing balls out of the zone (breaking and otherwise), and none of them are hitting the ball where it is pitched.

Eventually Molina will cool and the others will eventaully warm, but for a one AB shot...I want the guy who's giving me the good ABs now...whoever that is. This isn't a one or two game thing from Molina...this is two plus weeks now. Same goes for the other guys. These are extended, and visually obvious, trends...and I don't think a lot of data from multiple months ago should trump it.

Especially when the three hitters in question are marginal at best in their own rights...
I guess it just comes down to how much stock you put in hot or cold streaks. Clearly you, TFG and Kyle believe very strongly in them.

jim
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Post by jim »

Michael wrote:
EastonBlues22 wrote:
Michael wrote:
EastonBlues22 wrote:Power isn't what we needed in that spot, what we needed was a ball in play.
They have more power AND they hit for a better avg.
We're not talking about who's going to have the better average at the end of next season...we're talking about a one AB shot here.

You're assuming that the AB you're going to get from Wilson/Encarnacion/Duncan is one of their "average" ABs...and you're also assuming that Molina is going to have one of his "average" ABs when you make that statement. But those averages are composites of both their hot streaks and their cold streaks...it's not how they perform in any given AB.

Molina is clearly in a hot streak...he's seeing the ball well and hitting it where it's pitched. He's not chasing balls out of the zone, especially not breaking pitches.

Wilson, Encarnacion, and Duncan are in extended cold streaks...all of them are chasing balls out of the zone (breaking and otherwise), and none of them are hitting the ball where it is pitched.

Eventually Molina will cool and the others will eventaully warm, but for a one AB shot...I want the guy who's giving me the good ABs now...whoever that is. This isn't a one or two game thing from Molina...this is two plus weeks now. Same goes for the other guys. These are extended, and visually obvious, trends...and I don't think a lot of data from multiple months ago should trump it.

Especially when the three hitters in question are marginal at best in their own rights...
I guess it just comes down to how much stock you put in hot or cold streaks. Clearly you, TFG and Kyle believe very strongly in them.
And every piece of objective data say the opposite for hitters - they don't matter.

I PH for Molina there.

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Post by Arthur Dent »

How does one tell the difference between a hot streak due to a player using more skill from a random one like you'd see flipping a coin?

TimeForGuinness
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Post by TimeForGuinness »

Just one question: if Juan and Wilson are better hitters, why didn't they win the game and allow Molina to bat?

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Post by Michael »

TimeForGuinness wrote:Just one question: if Juan and Wilson are better hitters, why didn't they win the game and allow Molina to bat?
Sorry, I'm not following you.

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docellis
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Post by docellis »

Michael wrote:
TimeForGuinness wrote:Just one question: if Juan and Wilson are better hitters, why didn't they win the game and allow Molina to bat?
Sorry, I'm not following you.
Aren't there BA (stats, etc) better than Yadi's?

I think that is what he is getting at.

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