mikechamp wrote:I would not be happy if the Cards sent Miller & Cox away for a corner OF.
I'd be interested in seeing how many other people feel that way.
Elite arms are very hard to find, but he's also never pitched above AA and pitchers seem to fall apart all the time. I've had so many big prospects bust that I don't value them as highly as young players already in the bigs.
edit* I don't know if it means anything or not, but Marc Hulet at fangraphs estimates Shelby's peak WAR level to be 5.5. At age 20, Heyward reached 5.1.
FWIW, that 5.5 WAR would be good enough to make Miller a top 10 pitcher in the MLB in each of the last 10 years except for 2009.
Heyward would be in that same range as a top 10 outfielder in the MLB with a mid 5 WAR. I only bring that up because if you're gonna trade Miller for Heyward, at least try to do it straight up based on that. I wouldn't do it for two reasons, though: 1. Your pitching staff; and 2. I feel like I can pick up a slightly above league average corner outfielder (especially if you only use offensive stats) in fantasy baseball a lot easier than I can find a slightly above league average pitcher...but maybe that's an incorrect perception on my part.
While the predictions bolster my stance, I still wouldn't have changed my mind. Corner OFs are something the Cards are actually good at drafting (partly because it's not too hard to do). I'm not giving away a potential 1-2 starter and a promising corner IF for something even Luhnow can find.
(And yes, I know we're discussing this in a fantasy sports forum, but the conversation drifted to reality.)
I went ahead and told him I wouldn't add anybody to Miller and said that I project both guys to be about 5-6 WAR in their prime, which would make Miller a much more rare specimen than Heyward.
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:I wonder what cpebbles thinks.
Yea... he wouldn't like it at all, but I think Heyward will be a stud. Severely unlucky 2011, normalize his BABIP and he's much closer to that .270/.400/.500 line.
It hasn't been bad luck. He's been popping up on the infield nearly 10% of the time at the plate. Maybe that improves when his shoulder gets stronger, but then he's back to a .270/.370/.450 hitter in a best realistic case scenario. He's just not going to hit a lot of HRs with his swing and his inability to center the ball.
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:I wonder what cpebbles thinks.
Yea... he wouldn't like it at all, but I think Heyward will be a stud. Severely unlucky 2011, normalize his BABIP and he's much closer to that .270/.400/.500 line.
It hasn't been bad luck. He's been popping up on the infield nearly 10% of the time at the plate. Maybe that improves when his shoulder gets stronger, but then he's back to a .270/.370/.450 hitter in a best realistic case scenario. He's just not going to hit a lot of HRs with his swing and his inability to center the ball.
He is only 21. I'd imagine he can heal and should be able to develop a little further with his swing.
Keep your hand away from the trade button for a while. Or, try and ship away one of the O's SPs. They're going to be living in the land of suck for a while.
Keep your hand away from the trade button for a while. Or, try and ship away one of the O's SPs. They're going to be living in the land of suck for a while.
Matusz and Britton's value is awfully low right now, I'm pretty confident both will end up being solid talents. Since this is a sim league, it's not as driven by team performance.