2020 Election

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Radbird
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Re: 2020 Election

Post by Radbird »

33anda3rd wrote:On this day in 2007.....McCain was in fourth place at 10%, polling way behind America's Mayor Rudy Giuliani. At this point in 2011 Romney was 11 points behind Rick Perry.
Truly terrifying in terms of what-ifs.
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Re: 2020 Election

Post by pioneer98 »

33anda3rd wrote:It's 80% about fame at this point. On this day in 2007 Clinton was ahead of Obama by 17 points and McCain was in fourth place at 10%, polling way behind America's Mayor Rudy Giuliani. At this point in 2011 Romney was 11 points behind Rick Perry. At this point in 2015 it was Clinton 47-Sanders 23. It's very early.
I'd be curious though what the numbers were like in previous elections at this point in the early voting states. I bet McCain, Obama Romney, etc were doing better in early states at this point than they were nationally.
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Re: 2020 Election

Post by pioneer98 »

33anda3rd wrote:IMO the three things to do when watching polls right now are:
1. Don't pay too much attention to one poll. Don't let one poll freak you out or get you excited. In the last 2 months there have been 8 polls conducted in Iowa. This is one of 4 that has Biden leading in that state. One has Buttigieg winning. One has Biden and Warren tying. Two have Warren winning. None have Sanders winning and half of them have him at 12% or less so it's unlikely he's in the mid-20s. It shouldn't be dismissed, however, we should...

Not sure what 8 polls you are looking at. There are 5 listed on 538 in Iowa in the last 2 months, going back to early July. Biden was in 1st in 3 of those 5, and tied for first with Warren for another

Warren won 1 and had that tie with Biden in another

Bernie's totals in those 5 were: 26%, 19%, 17%, 11% and 9%. So in 3 of 5 he was at 17% or above. He's probably around 17% in Iowa right now. Also, 26% is the most recent number, and its the highest number Bernie has registered in any poll so far in Iowa. It's one data point so it may not mean a lot but whenever someone sets a new high it's worth paying attention.
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33anda3rd
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Re: 2020 Election

Post by 33anda3rd »

pioneer98 wrote:
33anda3rd wrote:IMO the three things to do when watching polls right now are:
1. Don't pay too much attention to one poll. Don't let one poll freak you out or get you excited. In the last 2 months there have been 8 polls conducted in Iowa. This is one of 4 that has Biden leading in that state. One has Buttigieg winning. One has Biden and Warren tying. Two have Warren winning. None have Sanders winning and half of them have him at 12% or less so it's unlikely he's in the mid-20s. It shouldn't be dismissed, however, we should...

Not sure what 8 polls you are looking at. There are 5 listed on 538 in Iowa in the last 2 months, going back to early July. Biden was in 1st in 3 of those 5, and tied for first with Warren for another

Warren won 1 and had that tie with Biden in another

Bernie's totals in those 5 were: 26%, 19%, 17%, 11% and 9%. So in 3 of 5 he was at 17% or above. He's probably around 17% in Iowa right now.
I'm looking at 538.
9/4 You Gov Leader: Biden / Sanders 26%
8/11 Change Research: Leader: Warren / Sanders 17%
8/4 Monmouth: Leader: Biden / Sanders 9%
7/25 Firehouse: Leader: tie Biden and Warren / Sanders 11%
7/18 YouGov: Leadeer: Biden / Sanders 19%
7/4 Change: Lader: Pete / Sanders 16%
7/1 Binder: Leader: Warren / Sanders 12%
7/1 Suffolk: Leader: Biden / Sanders 9%

I think my math is ok. We're basically drawing different lines--I'm saying he's at 12 or below in half of them you're saying he's at 17 or higher in three of them, we're both right. He's probably is at 17 in IA, that's his average. But of those 8, Warren's nadir is 13, much higher than Bernie's, and that's in the oldest poll. Sanders will hit lower lows than Warren because his dislike scores--both strongly and somewhat--are much higher than Warren's. Warren is also at 20 or higher in 3 of those 8, and Sanders is only over 20 in one of them, and only over 17 in two of them. That's because Warren's likability is higher. Warren will have higher highs and lower lows in the polls, and will average out higher because she's better liked and less disliked than Sanders by Democratic voters.
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Re: 2020 Election

Post by 33anda3rd »

Steyer got to 2% in a fourth qualifying poll and will debate in October, so we could have another two-nighter in which we don't get the three frontrunners on the same stage.
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Re: 2020 Election

Post by mikechamp »

From Time magazine:

Trump's New Math: Inside the Plan to Flip Blue States in 2020

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... ar-AAH1IzQ
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Re: 2020 Election

Post by 33anda3rd »

mikechamp wrote:From Time magazine:

Trump's New Math: Inside the Plan to Flip Blue States in 2020

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... ar-AAH1IzQ
If his strategy is “running up the score” by spreading himself out he might do a Clinton and take a few states for granted.
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Re: 2020 Election

Post by 33anda3rd »

Nate's take on those polling in low single-digits.

His position is that in the last half of the year before the election, if you haven't broken 5%, historically it's pretty much curtains. And it's even more so this year because the top of the ticket is not a Clinton type who is disliked, or a series of strong candidates who are not well-liked, making it even harder to rally from so far back.
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Re: 2020 Election

Post by ghostrunner »

I think this is the first big national poll with Warren at the top
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Re: 2020 Election

Post by AWvsCBsteeeerike3 »

I think Trump has irritated me to the point I'm going to have to vote for whoever the democratic nominee is but Bernie would be my preference.
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