At this point Obama was an underdog. Lieberman led the polls and Kerry was in 4th. Tsongas was the presumed candidate and no one knew who the heck Bill Clinton was. Virtually no one who is leading at this point wins. That's not to say Biden is not the current leader, or favorite. He probably is more likely that each individual candidate today save Warren (who Vegas currently likes best) but he is not a favorite vs the field by any means even with his polling advantage.Arthur Dent wrote:I don’t understand why there is so much confidence that Biden will collapse. I hope so, and I don’t think collapse is unlikely exactly, but also, it seems like the most likely outcome is that he wins. Reminds me a bit of the 2016 Republican primary where everyone assumed that Trump was going to collapse and fought amongst themselves on that basis.thrill wrote:I obviously have no faith in Biden. I think he's going to drop out fairly quickly. They just can't keep up the charade of hiding him from the public/media, and every time he makes an appearance, he hurts himself. It's got to catch up when the primaries actually start.
A big factor is likability. Warren outpaces him in net positive. Only Williamson and De Blasio have higher unlikable scores than Biden, who is at 21% with Sanders and Harris right behind at 20--Warren is at 15 and still there are a lot of voters with no opinion of her. She leads in net favorability despite 1 in 6 voters not knowing enough about her to form an opinion, and it's VERY hard to lead a net favorable race with that kind of No Opinion vote.