Democrat presidential primary

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pioneer98
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Re: Democrat presidential primary

Post by pioneer98 »

That Culinary union that Warren was saying should get to keep their health care rather than get Medicare for All? Yeah her campaign crossed their picket line repeatedly. Zero credibility. From August:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/2020-democ ... hem-a-win/
Federal election filings reveal that Sen. Elizabeth Warren's campaign, which had vowed to "stand with the Palms workers" as early as March, has repeatedly crossed the picket line at the Palms Casino Resort, which is in the crosshairs of the union's boycott, with stays in May and June. Candidate Marianne Williamson also stayed at the Palms in May.

A Warren campaign spokesperson told CBS News that the incident in question involved two advance staff members and claimed that there was no picket line. The spokesperson says the campaign apologized to the Culinary Union "weeks ago when we realized it."
Oopsie!
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Farewell Friends
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Re: Democrat presidential primary

Post by Farewell Friends »

Seems like “zero credibility” is hyperbole and a massive stretch since it involved two staff members. A presidential committee is quite large.
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heyzeus
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Re: Democrat presidential primary

Post by heyzeus »

Early voting starts next week and I'm still not entirely sure who I'll be voting for. Like elsewhere, Biden absolutely cratered in the Texas polls roughly a week ago, and Sanders is now in the lead, with Bloomberg also rapidly rising -- not too surprising in a state with a lot of suburban moderates who used to reliably vote Republican until the party went insane.

Warren has been my general preference all along, but man. She's now in 5th place at 6.2%. This is a primary so I'm likely to still vote my conscience/preference, but she definitely appears to be toast.
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thrill
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Re: Democrat presidential primary

Post by thrill »

Come home, Zeus. It will feel so good to go full-on lefty. You'll love it.
Socnorb11
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Re: Democrat presidential primary

Post by Socnorb11 »

pioneer98 wrote:
February 12 20, 11:00 pm
Socnorb11 wrote:
February 12 20, 12:36 pm
ghostrunner wrote:
February 12 20, 10:03 am
Nobody knows anything for sure. But Bernie, Biden, and (ugh) Bloomberg have consistently polled better than the rest against Trump, so I'm not sure what people base that idea on.
538, as of last night, projected that Pete was the only one that would beat Trump.

Bernie is a huge risk. He won't get any swing voters, Trumpsters will rally against his "socialism", and his social media trolls have alienated much of the Democratic party, outside of his base.

For all of the talk about how he can rally the troops, keep in mind that he's getting what............ about half of the votes that he got in 2016? Obviously it's because there are more candidates, but why are his voters from 2016 getting in line with other candidates? Why aren't they sticking with him?
A big chunk of them went to Warren. Also, it just means once their candidate is out, they are likely to go back to him.
Why would they move to Warren? Also, even if you add up all of EW's votes and BS's votes, it's way way short of what Bernie got in 2016. Majority of votes are going to moderates, just like in 2016.
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ghostrunner
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Re: Democrat presidential primary

Post by ghostrunner »

Most people don’t vote for candidates based on moderate, liberal, or conservative lanes. Most Biden voters second choice is Bernie. Same for Warren. 17% of Bloomberg voters have Bernie as a second choice. Voters say they don’t want socialism but they also like policies that are often referred to as socialist. A single government health plan for everyone polled 60% approval - better than Bernie in NH and all the moderates who don’t want it combined.

The “why did he lose voters” thing is silly. Candidates always have soft support and if Hillary ran this time she’d lose votes to Biden, Klobuchar, Bernie, and Warren. They actually had a graph out from NH exit polls and Bernie picked up Hillary voters while Warren picked up a lot of his 2016 voters.

Likewise if you ran Biden or Warren in 2016, they’d have cut into both candidates’ vote totals.
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Re: Democrat presidential primary

Post by Freed Roger »

thrill wrote:
February 13 20, 9:09 am
Come home, Zeus. It will feel so good to go full-on lefty. You'll love it.
COME ON ZEUS, TURN LEFT , FEEl The Bern, YA KNOW YA WANNA!

and think of the Larry David bonanza.
Socnorb11
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Re: Democrat presidential primary

Post by Socnorb11 »

ghostrunner wrote:
February 13 20, 4:47 pm
Most people don’t vote for candidates based on moderate, liberal, or conservative lanes. Most Biden voters second choice is Bernie. Same for Warren. 17% of Bloomberg voters have Bernie as a second choice.
We know this isn't true, because Bernie had fewer voters move to his side in the second alignment in Iowa than any other viable candidate. Fewer than Biden. Fewer than Pete. Fewer than EW.

Almost nobody outside of Bernie's base wanted to align with him.


Also, we have this:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... ic-voters/
Mapping out Quinnipiac’s data on second choices, we see how the liberal-moderate split plays out. (Circles are scaled to overall support; line width is scaled to the percentage of a candidate’s support shifting to the targeted candidate.) Sanders and Warren see much of their support go to each other as a second pick. Former New York mayor Mike Bloomberg’s support goes largely to Biden and former South Bend, Ind., mayor Pete Buttigieg. Much of Sen. Amy Klobuchar’s (D-Minn.) support goes to Buttigieg as well.
[SHOW]
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Last edited by Socnorb11 on February 13 20, 5:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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CardsofSTL
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Re: Democrat presidential primary

Post by CardsofSTL »

There were also a lot of people voting against Hillary in 2016 rather than just for Bernie.
Socnorb11
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Re: Democrat presidential primary

Post by Socnorb11 »

CardsofSTL wrote:
February 13 20, 5:45 pm
There were also a lot of people voting against Hillary in 2016 rather than just for Bernie.
That, plus he was a new flavor in 2016 that energized folks who wanted something different. He's not new anymore, people understand the risk of his policy positions now, and it's a different perspective now that people are focused on eliminating Trump, rather than replacing Obama.

He'll probably win the nomination because so many other votes are being split, but there are only about 25% of Democrats who are really excited to see him move forward.
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