Democrat presidential primary

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pioneer98
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Re: Democrat presidential primary

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Socnorb11
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Re: Democrat presidential primary

Post by Socnorb11 »

pioneer98 wrote:
February 13 20, 9:02 pm
All that stuff is true. If replacing Trump is the #1 priority, why don't we pick the candidate with the most votes and the most enthusiasm behind them?

We will end up picking the candidate with the most votes. I don't necessarily buy that Sanders has the most enthusiasm. He has the name recognition (Biden does too, but he's run a horrible campaign, and has baggage for days).

All of that aside though, you and I both know that the candidate with the most votes in this primary isn't necessarily the one who has the best chance of beating Donald Trump. If people want a moderate candidate, they're more likely to vote for a moderate candidate. Once the moderate votes aren't being split 3 ways, you may find that more people prefer one of those candidates over Bernie. Heck, if someone like Amy Klobuchar had run in 2016, she may have split votes with Hillary, and Bernie would have been the nominee. That doesn't mean the majority of people prefer him, or that he'd have a better chance of beating Donald Trump. Truth is we may never know.
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ghostrunner
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Re: Democrat presidential primary

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Florida man votes for Bloomberg
Socnorb11
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Re: Democrat presidential primary

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I hate to admit it, but part of me hopes that Bernie is the nominee. We can't afford to have 12% of his supporters voting for Trump again in this election (and another 9% staying home), like in 2016. The stakes are too high.
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Re: Democrat presidential primary

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ghostrunner wrote:
February 13 20, 8:08 pm
Socnorb11 wrote:
February 13 20, 5:40 pm
ghostrunner wrote:
February 13 20, 4:47 pm
Most people don’t vote for candidates based on moderate, liberal, or conservative lanes. Most Biden voters second choice is Bernie. Same for Warren. 17% of Bloomberg voters have Bernie as a second choice.
We know this isn't true, because Bernie had fewer voters move to his side in the second alignment in Iowa than any other viable candidate. Fewer than Biden. Fewer than Pete. Fewer than EW.

Almost nobody outside of Bernie's base wanted to align with him.

1. Voters moving from candidate to candidate doesn't establish that the movement had to do with ideology. And preferences in Iowa don't necessarily apply elsewhere.

2. Not sure where you're getting that info from. Bernie was 3rd in voters gained in the second alignment and only about 200 behind Warren. Looks like most of those pickups came from Yang and Steyer. He also had the most to start with and we don't have information about their ideology. Presumably most of them are very liberal, but there's likely a lot that aren't.

Pete - +5678
Warren - +2323
Bernie - +2143

Biden and Klobuchar both lost voters
Sorry. I was wrong about Biden. I'm not sure why I included that. My mistake.
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pioneer98
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Re: Democrat presidential primary

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Socnorb11 wrote:
February 14 20, 8:39 am
I hate to admit it, but part of me hopes that Bernie is the nominee. We can't afford to have 12% of his supporters voting for Trump again in this election (and another 9% staying home), like in 2016. The stakes are too high.
If Bernie is the nominee I bet more Mayor Pete supporters vote for Trump or stay home than Bernie supporters that would vote for Trump or stay home if Pete is the nominee.
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Re: Democrat presidential primary

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pioneer98 wrote:
February 14 20, 9:45 am
Socnorb11 wrote:
February 14 20, 8:39 am
I hate to admit it, but part of me hopes that Bernie is the nominee. We can't afford to have 12% of his supporters voting for Trump again in this election (and another 9% staying home), like in 2016. The stakes are too high.
If Bernie is the nominee I bet more Mayor Pete supporters vote for Trump or stay home than Bernie supporters that would vote for Trump or stay home if Pete is the nominee.
You can bet all you want. It's not true. What do you know about Pete supporters? Very little.

(Of course, many Trump supporters are taking a look at Pete right now as a reasonable option, if that's what you mean).
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Re: Democrat presidential primary

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Bloomberg is the first person I've believed can't beat Trump. Similar mindset on criminal justice in more polite words. Billionaire instead of a millionaire. Sexual harassment complaints. Trump will have ads on his soda tax all over the place, which will be far more effective than another round of socialism paranoia.

Aside from that it just ticks me off that apparently someone can spend a fortune, do no debates, and get himself bumped up in the polls.
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Re: Democrat presidential primary

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ghostrunner wrote:
February 14 20, 11:50 am
Bloomberg is the first person I've believed can't beat Trump. Similar mindset on criminal justice in more polite words. Billionaire instead of a millionaire. Sexual harassment complaints. Trump will have ads on his soda tax all over the place, which will be far more effective than another round of socialism paranoia.

Aside from that it just ticks me off that apparently someone can spend a fortune, do no debates, and get himself bumped up in the polls.
I’ve been confident that Sanders will be the nominee, but Bloomberg’s apparent strength with black voters has me second-guessing. I actually do think Bloomberg can beat Trump. He is supremely motivated and can basically white wash his entire history.
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Re: Democrat presidential primary

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Bloomberg convinced blacks to vote for him in New York, during the peak of the stop & frisk discussions. His ability to finance ads is limitless, and can be very influential.

I don't like him one bit, but he's definitely a threat. Bloomberg might actually help Sanders though, because it's one more person splitting the moderate votes.
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