Coronavirus

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Arthur Dent
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Arthur Dent »

AWvsCBsteeeerike3 wrote:
December 2 21, 3:11 pm
What does buying time to study new variants really accomplish? Not like in two weeks time the US is going to be like, welp, we got this omicron figured out. We'll have a unified response in place and open the borders. GTFO.
I would also like to know this. Good at keeping up the anxiety levels, though.

I swear I’m going to become a crank if we can’t get a grip about this stuff.

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haltz
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by haltz »

Arthur Dent wrote:
December 6 21, 1:58 pm
AWvsCBsteeeerike3 wrote:
December 2 21, 3:11 pm
What does buying time to study new variants really accomplish? Not like in two weeks time the US is going to be like, welp, we got this omicron figured out. We'll have a unified response in place and open the borders. GTFO.
I would also like to know this. Good at keeping up the anxiety levels, though.

I swear I’m going to become a crank if we can’t get a grip about this stuff.
I'm already there.

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Joe Shlabotnik
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Joe Shlabotnik »

If we could get 90% vaccinated, then ditch the masks and deal with it but noooooo.....

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AdmiralKird
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by AdmiralKird »

Buying time allows for the development of omicron tailored vaccine (if necessary) and getting it ready. Best case scenario I heard was March/April for the manufacturers to update the mRNA versions. If you can push the spread of omicron back by two weeks that's two extra weeks to stay ahead of it, not just when its starting to grow with low infection rates, but also pushing the peak of the wave back two weeks from when it infects hundreds of thousands of people simultaneously around the nation. this allows for more and more vulnerable to have potentially received a tailored vaccine and have had its immunity vest. So you're looking at saving thousands of lives in June or so.

Of course, it all depends on a lot of factors. Omicron might outpace vaccine development - but on the other hand, people are generally very stupid, many will not take something seriously until it happens to them or their loved ones and they won't wear a mask or do anything to prevent the spread of omicron. But there are also plenty of people who are only marginally very stupid, who will only take it seriously when they start to see devastation and lockdowns in countries like Italy putting on their best balcony renditions of Frozen. The more people that you can get to wear a mask over their nose instead of a chin diaper, the flatter the curve over here can be, etc. Time is helpful.

AWvsCBsteeeerike3
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by AWvsCBsteeeerike3 »

AdmiralKird wrote:
December 6 21, 11:54 pm
Buying time allows for the development of omicron tailored vaccine (if necessary) and getting it ready. Best case scenario I heard was March/April for the manufacturers to update the mRNA versions. If you can push the spread of omicron back by two weeks that's two extra weeks to stay ahead of it, not just when its starting to grow with low infection rates, but also pushing the peak of the wave back two weeks from when it infects hundreds of thousands of people simultaneously around the nation. this allows for more and more vulnerable to have potentially received a tailored vaccine and have had its immunity vest. So you're looking at saving thousands of lives in June or so.

Of course, it all depends on a lot of factors. Omicron might outpace vaccine development - but on the other hand, people are generally very stupid, many will not take something seriously until it happens to them or their loved ones and they won't wear a mask or do anything to prevent the spread of omicron. But there are also plenty of people who are only marginally very stupid, who will only take it seriously when they start to see devastation and lockdowns in countries like Italy putting on their best balcony renditions of Frozen. The more people that you can get to wear a mask over their nose instead of a chin diaper, the flatter the curve over here can be, etc. Time is helpful.
I understand what you're saying but don't agree with the majority of it.

To start, omicron is already here. How much does the travel ban push the peak back? You note pushing the peak back and pushing the spread back by two weeks is helpful, but I don't know where that timeframe came from aside from my made up example to demonstrate two weeks really is a fruitless amount of time to understand the situation and get a coherent plan in place. I'd also point out the delay of a peak and the delay of spread is not linear with the duration of a travel ban (eg, a 1 year travel ban doesn't push the peak back 1 year).

We would probably agree that if we could fathomably push the peak of omicron back to 2023, there is enough merit to give that path some consideration. However, there is no path. Same thing with delta and alpha and wild and etc etc etc. All the same things were tried on those and travel bans, flat out, didn't work. And, you then go on to mostly explain why in your second paragraph which I'll paraphrase as many people don't care and come to the conclusion that time would somehow be helpful, presumably to change that. But I don't see how it will.

Regarding the vaccine timing, I can't get behind punishing a country that has done everything the international community has asked of them with transparency and forthright data sharing in the hopes that a travel ban will provide the theoretical minimum amount of time required to develop and administer a vaccine to the most vulnerable of the population. I'd also point out, we have no way of calc'ing when that peak will be because omicron is almost assuredly more transmissible and will spread faster than previous variants. Making the margins on that timeframe incredibly thin to the point of being negligible, imo, which brings me to this.

No one has shown the vaccine isn't effective against omicron, from what I've seen. I'm not talking about infections only severe infections. Of course the measurable antibodies will be less effective against at neutralizing the spike protein. This is true with any variant that will ever arise. If you design a condom for Person A, it's not going to fit as well on Person B. But we make condoms for the masses that aren't perfect fits and people use them to a high degree of efficacy. This is almost assuredly what is going to happen with omicron as well. And, I'll say it again....that is not accounting for the entire immune system, just the antibodies. So, even that theoretical minimum timeframe to develop and get the vulnerable boosted likely isn't necessary. I could be wrong, sure. But, I don't even need this part to be true for the above paragraph to be a standalone point.

Looking at all that, and adding in that omicron is likely less virulent/deadly, you end up with a more contagious, less severe variant of the same virus to which many immune systems are no longer naïve. We have a vaccine readily available to immunize people against the virus in the US.

I could change my position on needing to delay the spread iff it's shown vaccines and natural infections are largely ineffective at preventing severe disease, a relatively high degree of mutations are occurring within omicron, and healthcare infrastructure is more at risk than previous waves (too late for a travel ban at that point and no way of knowing now). (ETA) Also if there is ever an inkling of antibody dependent enhancement among a variant, that would probably be the biggest cause for concern of all, which of course is not the case here nor has it ever been shown with any variants to date.

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GeddyWrox
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Re: Coronavirus

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AdmiralKird
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by AdmiralKird »

AWvsCBsteeeerike3 wrote:
December 7 21, 8:34 am
To start, omicron is already here. How much does the travel ban push the peak back?
I never said anything about a travel ban.

AWvsCBsteeeerike3
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by AWvsCBsteeeerike3 »

AdmiralKird wrote:
December 8 21, 3:17 am
AWvsCBsteeeerike3 wrote:
December 7 21, 8:34 am
To start, omicron is already here. How much does the travel ban push the peak back?
I never said anything about a travel ban.
Mea culpa, thought you were advocating for them as part of the overall discussion.

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GeddyWrox
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by GeddyWrox »

I'm on Humira for psoriasis, which suppresses the immune system. So this could be something I wind up doing. Very interesting development...

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/09/fda-cle ... mised.html

FDA clears AstraZeneca’s Covid antibody treatment for immunocompromised
The Food and Drug Administration authorized the first injectable monoclonal antibody cocktail for long-term prevention of Covid-19 among people with weakened immune systems before they have been exposed to the coronavirus.

The FDA issued an emergency use authorization Wednesday for AstraZeneca’s antibody cocktail, Evusheld, for what is known as pre-exposure prophylaxis, or PrEP, against Covid-19.

To date, such laboratory-produced antibodies have been authorized only as early treatment of Covid-19 or as preventive therapy for high-risk people immediately after close contact with someone who has tested positive.

Evusheld can be used as PrEP by people ages 12 and older who are moderately to severely immunocompromised and may not get adequate immune responses from a Covid vaccine. The therapy is also an option for the rare people who have histories of severe adverse reactions to a Covid vaccine or its components.

The AstraZeneca therapy involves getting preventive injections as often as every six months. According to a large placebo-controlled clinical trial, the cocktail is about 83 percent effective at preventing symptomatic disease during such an interval.

AstraZeneca’s scientists are testing Evusheld against the new variant, said Ruud Dobber, an executive vice president and president of the company’s BioPharmaceuticals Business Unit. They are optimistic about its efficacy against the omicron variant because both of the antibodies in the cocktail, tixagevimab and cilgavimab, target the virus’s spike protein in different and complementary ways.

Data are expected in the coming weeks, Dobber said in a statement.

Still, for many of the estimated 3 percent of U.S. adults who are immunocompromised, the long-awaited news that antibody PrEP has finally been cleared should bring profound relief.

“This new FDA authorization is a very important development for those with immunosuppression,” said Dr. Alfred Kim, a rheumatologist at Washington University in St. Louis.

Evusheld as PrEP, he said, “provides a healthy load of antibodies for the 40 percent to 80 percent of the immunosuppressed who have very poor antibody responses following SARS-CoV-2 vaccination.”

Immunosuppression is associated with a much higher risk of breakthrough coronavirus infections and severe Covid. Even after vaccination, many people — including transplant recipients and those treated for cancer or autoimmune conditions — have had to remain under lonesome lockdowns to protect themselves against Covid.

Janet Handal, 70, a transplant recipient from New York City, manages a Facebook patient advocacy group for fellow immunocompromised people that has nearly 900 members. Handal, hoping Evusheld will prove potent against the omicron variant, said PrEP will be transformative for her group’s members.

“We can rejoin life. We can rejoin our families. We can hug someone without fear,” she said.

Lucy Horton, an infectious disease specialist at the University of California, San Diego, said that Evusheld as PrEP can provide an additional layer of protection for the vaccinated and vulnerable but that it “should not be viewed as an alternative to or replacement of vaccine.”

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Leroy
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Leroy »

I'm going to do my part. I'm banning myself from going to Iowa. Someone's extra mile is like the first mile for me.

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