Tornado Warnings/Sirens

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

We've had a lot of bad weather here the past few weeks, obviously a lot of the midwest has as well.

What kills me though, is weathermen and the national weather service issuing tornado warnings when there aren't tornadoes. It seems like they have started to issue them based on the radar instead of actual reports. I guess that is probably a good way to do it because you're proactive instead of reactive. But, it seems they need a different word than warning. When I was gowing up a warning always meant that there was a tornado and get the [expletive] to a safe place. Now, it's more like...well, there's a 10% chance you'll see a tornado. Or less. Whatever it is, it makes me want to go outside and check it out instead of actually being responsible and trying to get to a safe place. It doesn't help that weathermen around here will track a storm and start calling for people to get into their shelters without a tornado being present....just possible. ANd they do it all night. Get in your tornado shelters. Get in your tornado shelters. They're like a broken record.

Also, the sirens go off at apparently random times and frequently at that. It's annoying. Reminds me of the boy that cried wolf. No one pays attention anymore.

[Diddy]

But, it seems they need a different word than warning.

Isnt that what a tornado "watch" is for?

[Radbird]

My interpretation has always been that a "warning" means a tornado has actually been spotted. A "watch" means conditions are favorable for their formation.

But then I'm no meteorologist as my job demands accuracy.

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

But, it seems they need a different word than warning.

Isnt that what a tornado "watch" is for?

Yeah, this seems to be in between though. Watches are broad sweeping statements and always have been. They'll issue a watch for entire regions/counties/basically anywhere a certain storm has a possibility of travelling through. Warnings, imo, should remain concrete evidence, not just - Oh, the conditions are really spot on to create a tornado so we're going to issue a warning which is what they're doing. Only, these conditions don't generate tornadoes every time. So, warnings are being watered down.

[Bo Hart]

Are you sure they're not actually seeing tornadoes though? In all my life, we've never had a tornado plow through the city. However, there have been numerous times that tornados have touched down within X miles of town. When that happens, the sirens go off.

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

Are you sure they're not actually seeing tornadoes though?

Yes.

[IMADreamer]

My interpretation has always been that a "warning" means a tornado has actually been spotted. A "watch" means conditions are favorable for their formation.

But then I'm no meteorologist as my job demands accuracy.

I am, well I used to be. That's what my degree is in and I did it for a while after college, then I decided I wanted to make money instead. lol

Anyway, it boils down to if a tornado is indicated on radar it means multiple levels of radar scans are showing the signature of a tornado. This means one could literally drop at any second and it's not that they are just trying to scare you. If you read the warning there are a few different levels of warning so to speak. There is radar indicated, spotted, and then a wording depending on if the tornado is doing damage or not. From the point a warning is issued it really does mean a tornado could happen at any second with that storm. The problem is we just don't know enough, have good enough radar, and nothing near the funding needed to improve those warnings to where we can say this for sure has a tornado, this one doesn't.

Let me give you an example.

This was the Good Friday Tornado, at this point it was not actually touching down although it had previously. What you are seeing here is a base reflectivity and radial velocity scan. You can see the classic hook echo signature in both products. This storm is tornado warned.



Here is the same storm minutes later, tornado on the ground. Not much difference is there? but now homes are being destroyed.


My point is a tornadic storm producing a tornado and the same storm not producing can look almost identical if not identical. Meteorologist rely on ground truth from spotters and the public to know if it's actually on the ground. You just can't tell for sure from an office looking at a radar with 100% accuracy.

The most frustrating thing for me as a meteorologist was the stupid public. You can't win as a meteorologist and most people expect perfection and in a science that's really only 60 years old it won't happen. Especially since meteorology is by far the most complicated of sciences. I know nuclear physicists who quit meteorology programs because of the difficulty.

Now can you imagine if the NWS didn't issue a tornado warning for that storm last week because they didn't know for sure it was on the ground? What an outrage there would have been.

[Popeye_Card]

Watch = a storm is in the area which may produce tornados

Warning = storm is in the are which has a high likelyhood of generating tornados.

Issuing a warning after a tornado has already formed kinda defeats the purpose of a "warning". That would be a tornado "report". Isn't it a bit late to warn you after the tornado has formed? Of course you imagine it forming in the distance where you can see it coming. But keep in mind that your distance may be directly over someone else's house.

[lukethedrifter]

Issuing a warning after a tornado has already formed kinda defeats the purpose of a "warning".

Exactly. Rant fail.

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

I think you all are misunderstanding my point.

I'm not saying that meteorologists ahve to be perfect or even close to it. But, when you issue 30 someodd warnings based on radar and only 3-5 tornadoes touch down, you're watering down what a warning should be there to do. You can only run to your shelter so many times before you start to question the validity of the warnings.

Growing up I remember being under a tornado warning 3 times. Not to say it wasn't more, but I have 3 very distinct memories. They were terrifying and at the time seemed to be well warranted. Compared to the past two weeks where I have been under a tornado warning I think 6 times and the sirens have blared probably 20 times. A lot of these situations were simply uncalled for.

Further, the NWS down here said they issue the warnings based on radar as a precaution. Which is fine, but if you are issuing warnings as a precaution, don't be surprised when they lose their effectiveness on actually making people take action. It's gotten to the point where you actually have to sit there and watch the weather for yourself and see if you're going to get dumped on because the warnings are so broad (for counties in many cases) and so often (multiple times in a night) that you'll never be able to sleep if you don't take it upon yourself to figure out what is going on as warnings have simply become ineffective.