Oscar Taveras

[Fat Strat]

How are we supposed to determine the one single reason why a prospect makes it or not? How are we supposed to determine whether a prospect fails because he was rushed or because he just didn't have it? After all the scouts who found these players -- and there are a dozen of them every year -- and the teams that drafted them saw the tools, the talent, the potential... Yet, that perceived talent that manifested at the MiLB level was unrealized in the majors. Why? Sometimes these prospects flame out because of injury (Alan Benes). I'll grant you those guys. Sometimes the player's tools that allowed him to dominate the minors simply didn't translate to the majors (Anthony Reyes). I'll give you those guys, too.

That leaves an extremely long list of highly regarded prospects who simply were not capable of translating their amazing talents into success at the MLB level. Some of them were rushed to the majors and never succeeded. Some were brought along slowly and never succeeded. You could try to pin it on any number of possible things, but by and large the reason they didn't succeed is that they were simply not "ready" to tackle the challenge of playing the majors when they got there... they had not mastered the requisite skills and techniques to successfully translate their talents to the major league environment. Maybe it was a mental problem. Maybe it was physical. Maybe it was something else that we can't even measure. Whatever the reason for their lack of readiness, the fact is that they were not ready.

And for the ones who did succeed but weren't rushed, we'll never know if they would have succeeded had they been rushed. Why? Because they weren't rushed and you can't quantify what extra years of development means to a player. The knife cuts both ways.

So, to your question, name one player other than Ankiel who was ruined by bring brought up to early? OK, go through and look at any top 100 list from the last 10 years and you'll see probably 30-50 names on every list from every year who didn't make it and they didn't make it because they were not "ready". Some might never have developed the skills/abilities/mental fortitude/techniqes/whatever that would have made them ready, but that point is moot in this discussion. Others might have if given more time, but weren't given the time they needed. We'll never know precisely because they failed.


And again, as to whether Rasmus would have improved the '08 club, I'll give you the same answer I've been giving you. I don't care. It doesn't matter. Because Rasmus' development -- and he clearly had some developing to do in '08 -- matters more to me than a marginal improvement in our outfield in a rebuilding season. But, to play along, Ankiel was a 3.4 WAR player that season. Ludwick was a 4.5 player. The combo of Skip and Duncan was a 2.4 WAR player. Our two backup OF'ers that year were Barton -- 764 OPS -- and Mather -- 780 OPS. Rasmus wouldn't have cracked that roster nor would he have been an improvement over a single player we gave significant time in the OF to because they all performed pretty well.

[Swirls]

Let's get back to the subject at hand, his last two games Oscar is 7-9 with 1 2B, 1 3B, and 1 HR.

His season line stands at: .387/.444/.589/1.033.

[pioneer98]

I'm not in favor of rushing these guys up. I understand that they need to learn.

At this point in the season I don't see the harm in Taveras going up to high A though. I don't think that would be rushing him. But if he has to stay in QC for the playoffs, I guess we'll keep him.

I was trying to think of a good comp for Oscar...Still mulling it over, but there is something about his swing that reminds me of Vladdy Guerrero. He doesn't remind me of him in the field much, but at the plate there is a bit of a resemblance, just in the swing (and not that he will swing at anything like Vladdy, just more the mechanics). Not saying he is a lock to have a career like Vladdy's, but that's the best comp I can come up with right now.

[Cronos]

I know there's no rush to move him up to Springfield, but considering that's what the org did with Matt Mothergrabbin' Adams, wouldn't they want to do the same thing with Taveras?

I'm going on the assumption that with Adams, they thought his bat was ready for stiffer competition yet they didn't want to possibly downgrade his confidence by playing him in a pitcher's league (And park). Why wouldn't they want to do the same thing with Taveras, other than worrying about rushing him?

[Fat Strat]

I know there's no rush to move him up to Springfield, but considering that's what the org did with Matt Mothergrabbin' Adams, wouldn't they want to do the same thing with Taveras?

I'm going on the assumption that with Adams, they thought his bat was ready for stiffer competition yet they didn't want to possibly downgrade his confidence by playing him in a pitcher's league (And park). Why wouldn't they want to do the same thing with Taveras, other than worrying about rushing him?

Taveras is a 19 year old kid out of the Dominican. Matt Adams was a 22 year old college draftee when he skipped PB. There's a very significant 2-year age gap there. I keep saying this, but it's the most significant part of the story: Taveras has just over 300 pa's above rookie ball.

Adams had 780 professional pa's and was 22 years old when he went straight to AA. Taveras will have 593 (just over 1 season's worth) of PA's and will be 20 years old. What's the problem with him spending a month or two in south Florida against competition that's at least closer to his own age? He'll still be really young for the Florida State League.

At this point in the season I don't see the harm in Taveras going up to high A though.

PB has something 5 games remaining in their schedule, one of which is a double header, and they aren't in the playoffs. He's played the whole season with QC. Give him a chance to play there in the playoffs.

[Socnorb11]

He should have been bumped up to high-A a long time ago. There's no point in doing it now.

[Fat Strat]

He should have been bumped up to high-A a long time ago. There's no point in doing it now.

He has 330 pa's this season. He's missed time twice this season because of injury. When would you have promoted him? We're really going to start saying that just 200 plate appearances split up by over a month off because of injuries is enough for a 19 year old in his first full season league? Because that's the only way to interpret you saying "he should have been bumped ... a long time ago".

Normally I'm an advocate of aggressive promotion, but I think some of you are taking it to an extreme and you need to look around a little bit. Taveras isn't Bryce Harper or Mike Trout. The moment those guys were picked they were viewed as top 5 prospects. And even those guys, who are oozing tools and dripping talent everywhere they go, received as many or more PA's at the equivalent of the QC level before they were promoted. And frankly, neither of them performed at expectations when they were advanced.

Trout, A+ -- 821 OPS after 388 PA's in A ball.
Harper, AA -- 724 OPS after 305 PA's in A ball.

[pioneer98]

I agree with you Fat Strat. I'm sure even though his stats show he's ready they are finding plenty of things for him to work on here at QC. I just don't think it would have been *that* big of a stretch for Oscar to have been called up around early August to get a month at Palm Beach.

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

Fat,

Getting back to this whole convo.... do you think if a kid is sent up too soon/too late that it will ruin them? I've always kind of thought that while some kids may not be the best baseball player they can be, they can be an asset to their team, and at that point you bring them up ala trout this year....

I think regardless of when a kid is brought up, he will either make the cut ( albeit in the future) or not. As u mention, Craig wasn't ready last year but was brought up and hacked. This year despite being brought up 'too early' last year came in and raked.

I guess I just don't think u can hurt a kid bringing him up too soon...even if he has to be sent back down.

[Fat Strat]

do you think if a kid is sent up too soon/too late that it will ruin them? I've always kind of thought that while some kids may not be the best baseball player they can be, they can be an asset to their team, and at that point you bring them up ala trout this year....

"Will" is a very strong word. I think a quick call up could ruin them. I think it's extremely difficult to learn at the major league level. As I mentioned before, I think there are certain benchmarks that a player needs to meet in the minors. It ranges from pitch recognition to the ability to hit off speed and breaking pitches. Understanding the running game, fundamentals on defense, the mental aspect of the game. Even things like proper training techniques.

I think people underestimate how hard it is to play in the major leagues. I mean this literally: When you're in the minors Randy Keisler might have one of the best curve balls you see. The next day you could be in the majors and Clayton Kershaw drops one on you that breaks from the top of your cap to your ankles. Good luck with that if you haven't spent some significant time working things out with your swing, your approach, with everything.

I think regardless of when a kid is brought up, he will either make the cut ( albeit in the future) or not. As u mention, Craig wasn't ready last year but was brought up and hacked. This year despite being brought up 'too early' last year came in and raked.

Craig had spent 2 full years in AAA before he got his shot. He spent a full year at every level along the way. He had over 2100 pa's in the minors. He was able to contribute when he came up, but not like he is now after an offseason to work out what he learned after his '10 cameo.

Time spent in the minors gives you the confidence, the skills, the knowledge, and the "been there, done that's" to handle the adversity that will come when you reach the minors.