Horseracing (was: The Belmont Stakes)

[lukethedrifter]

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/04/sport ... acing&_r=0

LOS ALAMITOS, Calif. — Art Sherman is not a complicated man. He is 77 and proud of a life that is longer on memories than it is on bankroll. Sixty years ago, he was a Brooklyn kid in California learning about horses from a crew of cowboys.

He survived them and became a jockey, mostly for broke horsemen on both coasts, before finding his true gift on backwater shed rows like this one, where he trains horses amid the sounds of rakes scraping gravel and noses thumping against feed tubs. He has known plenty of characters, but not many like the ones he is surrounded by now.

There are Perry Martin and Steve Coburn, the breeders and owners of their famous colt.

They both wear bushy mustaches and have found solace in horses, but they have little else in common.

[jim]

It would seem like withdrawing the $5 million offer would be easier.

But....But....where's the fun in that? I guess we'll see this weekend. Seems like if they're going to mess up California Chrome's mojo, they'll have to tire him out early. Drawing the #2 post for a frontrunner is typically pretty sweet, iirc.... At least it makes sense that it would be.

I don't think it's ideal, he would probably be better in the middle, but it's really not much of a factor at Belmont. The draw at the Kentucky Derby is huge - if you are out in that extra gate (15-20) then you are really screwed.

CC isn't a great horse, but he's the best of the bunch. It will be interesting to see the first splits - if the first two splits are fast then I don't think CC wins the race. Some 15-1 horse will come lurking out from the back and catch his ass. It they cover the first mile the 1:13ish or better then I think he will lose unless he holds back (which he usually doesn't do). If it's a more comfortable pace as the Derby and Preakness were, then he will hold on.

I'm not betting on the race, but if I were I might just lay down $20 on Commanding Curve if he continues to go off around 15-1. He took the Preakness off, he's got some bloodlines that favor distance, and he closed on CC in the Derby. Usually there is nothing in a 15-1 horse than makes you think to bet on them, so having something to hang your hat on makes him interesting. He's also had 3 solid timed workouts (5/16, 5/23, and 6/1) that gives an indication that he's rested and healthy. The workouts were short - 4 and 5 furlongs, but he was breezing them at better than a 12 clip.

[sighyoung]

By the way, jim, do you have any recommended reading on handicapping. I really ought to know this stuff, given the city I'm in. Evidently, one of my uncles was a terrific handicapper--it was even in his obituary.

[jim]

@sigh - some of it depends on where you are at on the learning curve. If you understand how to read a race sheet, know some basics etc... then I would recommend this book:

http://www.amazon.com/Betting-Thoroughb ... roduct_top

It's old but I read this a couple of years ago and I think the concepts are the same. I'll warn you though that some of it is pretty abstract, especially the stuff on pace. I gleaned some good information though that I routinely apply.

If you are kind of starting out, then there are plenty of materials online. The Daily Racing Form (http://www.drf.com) has a "Learn" section that is pretty good on how to read a Past Performance (PP) sheet. Another good resource is equibase - http://www.equibase.com. I have an app on my phone from them that I think I paid $2 for that gives me videos of all of the stakes races across the country (America's Best Racing) and another called Equibase Today's Racing which has the summaries of all racing across the country for the day.

If you want to dip your toes into the sport without growing broke, a fun thing to do and a good way to learn is to go to equibase and get the Free PP for that day. Take the sheet, handicap the race yourself, and see how it turns out. I do that pretty regular, and I'll often go back after the race is over and revisit the PP and see if I can see a new clue that I overlooked before that might help. Here is a link to the free race of the day:

http://www.equibase.com/free/index.cfm (the PP is here: http://www.equibase.com/rotd/fullpp.pdf)

BTW - they have some free stuff for the Belmont on that free area now. All of the PP's, analysis, etc..

Also sigh, at Arlington they have "schools" that are free. I think they have them every Thursday night, I haven't personally gone but I've seen the videos that they put up online. I would assume Churchill has all of this stuff too, but Arlington puts a ton of stuff on their website including videos of the races. Last year they did this really need series called "Racehorse" which kind of followed a few owners through a season. These were more hobbiest, and it was kind of neat to see that side of the sport. Very expensive, but I could totally see someone owning a horse just for the hell of it as a hobby. That series is here:

http://www.arlingtonpark.com/newsvideos ... deo-series

Anyway I guess the moral of the story is just poke around, reading a handicapping book certainly is a good way to build the base but after that I think everyone needs to find their own way.

[Vidor]

If I owned a thoroughbred racehorse, I'd name it "Bob".

Or maybe "Bob the Horse".

[jim]

The final name on the horse is not the owner, the owner only submits requests that get approved/denied.

[Vidor]

So I'd have to give a well-placed bribe.

[jim]

Secretariat had his name rejected 3 times. I don't remember what the first few submissions were, but they finally submitted the name "Secretariat" in honor of the secretary of the stable, and it was accepted. His "real" name - the one people actually called him - was "Big Red".

BTW - in honor of the Belmont coming up, take a look at this ridiculousness. Some people actually thought Big Red couldn't handle the distance, but as you can see he moved like a "Tremendous Machine!"

http://www.maniacworld.com/Secretariat- ... takes.html

What a horse.

BTW - if you are even a casual horse fan, read the bio http://www.amazon.com/Secretariat-Willi ... B004TE68EK

[sighyoung]

I watched Secretariat win the Belmont Stakes. It was one of the most dominant sports performances I've ever seen. I remember saying, "Oh my God!" as Secretariat came around the final turn. He obliterated the rest of the field.

[sighyoung]

Thanks so much for the tips, jim. I'll begin reading up.