2016 Election Thread (My God Kill Me Now)

[Radbird]

I haven't seen anybody on either side that I really want to be president. Problem is, those kind of people wouldn't run.

If the GOP is stupid enough to nominate a Tea Party extremist, they will lose. If the Dems nominate anyone other than Hillary (from what I can see right now), they will lose.

[Vidor]

I haven't seen anybody on either side that I really want to be president. Problem is, those kind of people wouldn't run.

If the GOP is stupid enough to nominate a Tea Party extremist, they will lose. If the Dems nominate anyone other than Hillary (from what I can see right now), they will lose.

Hillary will be more or less unopposed other than a symbolic type of candidacy like Bernie Sanders.

As much as I'd love to see the Republicans nominate an Akin-esque Tea Party loon, they'll probably nominate someone safe like Jeb Bush or Perry.

[pioneer98]

I just have this weird feeling we are getting a Republican in 2016. It's like this country didn't get enough war and wealth distribution to the top the first time.

I really don't know if I can handle another election. This thing is going to kick off this summer and I just don't know if I can do it. I am so utterly and completely wasted from this year. I'm kind of feeling hopeless about America right now.

I don't think so. Look how well Obama did in the last two elections. Then consider that Hillary will not have the handicap of being black. Unless she royally F's things up, she'll win.

I'll keep saying this, but Hillary finished 3rd in the Iowa caucuses in 2008. I think someone could come out of nowhere and take it like Obama did (Jim Webb, Elizabeth Warren, etc).

In baseball parlance, Hillary has a high floor but a low ceiling. She will always get a solid amount of the vote, but she will never win in a complete landslide. Obama was a much riskier candidate than her but had a much higher ceiling. I think someone with a higher ceiling could possibly beat Hillary again.

Also, FWIW Iowa just now elected their first female senator, ever. And Iowa has still never had a female governor. Not once. Female candidates don't do well here. It's possible to lose Iowa and still win the nomination, but it's challenging. I think Hillary will face a tough test here.

[ghostrunner]

I just have this weird feeling we are getting a Republican in 2016. It's like this country didn't get enough war and wealth distribution to the top the first time.

I really don't know if I can handle another election. This thing is going to kick off this summer and I just don't know if I can do it. I am so utterly and completely wasted from this year. I'm kind of feeling hopeless about America right now.

I don't think so. Look how well Obama did in the last two elections. Then consider that Hillary will not have the handicap of being black. Unless she royally F's things up, she'll win.

I'll keep saying this, but Hillary finished 3rd in the Iowa caucuses in 2008. I think someone could come out of nowhere and take it like Obama did (Jim Webb, Elizabeth Warren, etc).

In baseball parlance, Hillary has a high floor but a low ceiling. She will always get a solid amount of the vote, but she will never win in a complete landslide. Obama was a much riskier candidate than her but had a much higher ceiling. I think someone with a higher ceiling could possibly beat Hillary again.

Also, FWIW Iowa just now elected their first female senator, ever. And Iowa has still never had a female governor. Not once. Female candidates don't do well here. It's possible to lose Iowa and still win the nomination, but it's challenging. I think Hillary will face a tough test here.

You're talking about primaries, but even there I think the contest was closer than you're suggesting. In fact it looks like Hillary won in the popular vote. Anyway, the general is where I think everyone expects her to have an advantage if she gets that far.

She also appears to be stomping the sitting VP in the polls. 69% vs. 11%. Obviously it's way early, but the name recognition on those two is pretty high. I think she's going to be tough to beat.

[pioneer98]

To me Hillary is kind of like the Democrat equivalent of like Perry or Romney or any of the candidates that have been around a while and voters are familiar with. What happens is they poll high now because no one knows the other candidates. As voters get to know other candidates, these usual suspects will fade. I don't know if it will be a small fade or a big fade. With Republicans in 2008 the candidate in the lead shifted from like Bachmann to Cain to Perry to Romney and then finally Santorum. I may not have the order on that right, but as voters got to know each one, they each had their spot in the limelight. Hillary will fade too. The question is will she drop from 69% to 35% or will she only drop to like 50%. We'll see. I'll be shocked if she wins Iowa with 69%.

I agree she would have a big advantage in the general election but so would a lot of Democratic nominees.

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

I just have this weird feeling we are getting a Republican in 2016. It's like this country didn't get enough war and wealth distribution to the top the first time.

Maybe not the first time, but they've probably had their fill of it after Obama.

[mikechamp]

I'm pretty a-political, so I really don't want to get sucked into this thread. But I will share one observation I had in 2007. So far, it's been true and I don't think I've shared this story here, so I'm not repeating myself.

My wife and I were in Greece, and we were at dinner with some of her colleagues from Greece, Italy, etc. They were asking us who we thought would be the next President of the U.S. (Their interest in our election was fascinating, as it was almost 1 year before the election.) My answer was, "I don't know, but I believe we'd elect a black man before we elect a white woman."

At that time, I felt the populace was finally to the point where color wasn't an insurmountable issue anymore. But I felt gender still was. And I said that based on the global leadership landscape. Other than Thatcher & Merkel, I can't think of a prominent female government leader. (Queen Elizabeth doesn't count.)

Now, we might be to the point where Obama broke down not just the color barrier, but any non-white male barrier. I stress the word might, because I just don't have a good feel one way or the other on the gender thing. I think it could go either way. Like pioneer98 said, it wouldn't surprise me if someone comes out of nowhere to contend for the D nomination. It would have to be an unknown or an edge-of-radar candidate (i.e., not Biden).

[heyzeus]

I'd vote for Elizabeth Warren in a nanosecond. A president that intelligent and courageous would be amazing. You know, until politics and the vested interests that are brought to a bear on a President systematically dismantle her, like every other progressive-ish president.

[mikechamp]

... until politics and the vested interests that are brought to bear on a President systematically dismantle ..., like every other ... president.

And this is where I stop having any kind of excitement over politics. It doesn't matter how good one candidate is, because there are 3 dance partners (White House, Senate & House of Reps). Unless they can all agree to the tune and who's the lead, they're just going to argue while tripping over each other.

Have a good discussion, everyone. I look forward to this thread reaching 300+ pages by Feb. 1, 2016.

[heyzeus]

... until politics and the vested interests that are brought to bear on a President systematically dismantle ..., like every other ... president.

And this is where I stop having any kind of excitement over politics. It doesn't matter how good one candidate is, because there are 3 dance partners (White House, Senate & House of Reps). Unless they can all agree to the tune and who's the lead, they're just going to argue while tripping over each other.

Don't forget the most important and yet quietest 4th dance partner: Corporations, PACs, and lobbyists. Take your pick: Do you want your ability to get elected and re-elected in the hands of the energy industry, NRA, and Wall Street? Or the health care industry, Planned Parenthood, and labor unions?