Schlich wrote:Rosenthal is fine. two outings is not indicative of anything, ever.
Agreed. Back in May when CMart started a game by walking the bases full then allowing like 4 straight singles to go down 5-0 no one was anxious or nervous or thought he shouldn't start another game...I just realized I shouldn't say no one because the GDT for that day is probably full of anxiety and panic. Anyway, a couple innings is too small to qualify as a 'small sample size.' It's like a micro sample.
w/r/t Rosenthal and the Sunday game v the Cubs, I disagree with the notion that bringing Rosey in means you have burnt him/wasted him. At that point in the game, with the 14th best hitter in baseball up and runners on first and second and a two-run lead in the 8th inning, if Rosenthal comes in and gets Bryant/LaStella/Russell out, then whoever comes in for the 9th is going to face Montero/Castro/PitcherSpot with a two-run lead.
The Cubs entered that inning with a 21.5% likelihood of winning.
By the time Bryant had been walked to load the bases the game was 50/50.
When Broxton walked LaStella, even down a run the Cubs win expectation was then at 70.2%.
In the course of four PA the Cubs went from very unlikely to win to likely to win. Using the 4th-best RP in baseball when the Cubs chances to come back and beat us are at their peak isn't wasting him, it's the best possible utilization of him. Someone else can pitch the 9th when the bottom 3 spots in the order are up and the Cubs have a 17% chance of winning. Not pitching Rosenthal then is like putting your best hitter in the #9 spot in the order.
Generally speaking, I think those are the kinds of things that should go into any discussion of Manager Of The Year. Matheny's got himself a 100-win club that's had to deal with a lot of injuries this year. Usually that's about as deep as a MOTY conversation gets, whereas we will debate endlessly the merits and granular numbers for players when discussing the MVP, CYA, ROY, HOF, etc. We don't give much consideration to MOTY. It's a gut vote. "He did a hell of a job turning that club around." "I like the way he handles his club." I'd rather discuss the granular stuff of the manager. How is he really doing at managing each game, rather than a blanket statement of approval.
