2016 Election Thread (My God Kill Me Now)

[pioneer98]

bloomberg with calf implants ?

Ha, I didn't realize Bloomberg was only 5'8". That's a candidate I can relate to.

[Michael]

It is a complete mystery to me how 30% or whatever of Republican voters actually think voting for this guy is a good idea. I work daily with a large number of Republican voters. I cannot fathom even 2% of them voting for Trump, unless it is a joke.

I know. I don't get it either. I also work with a ton and they either fall into the Evangelical wing (who won't vote for Trump since he's so non-religious) or the more traditional wing, who are more behind people like Rubio or Bush. When you look at his rallies I think Trump is getting the "people of Walmart" vote. I don't work with people like that. And also don't forget: Trump might be getting 30% of the Republican vote but that's probably more like 15% of all voters being polled....or less if the poll doesn't count undecideds. It shows you how utterly terrible the field of candidates is this year.

I'm really curious to see if Trump supporters actually show up on election day or change their support in the booth. I simply cannot wrap my brain around the large amount of support he's getting.

[Freed Roger]

The main problem with Trump continues to be the same as all along - he makes the other ones in the field look less crazy and dangerous.

Trump plays directly into Cruz or Rubio's hands.

We were at a family thing- we normally don't talk politics. But we ended up all sharing some laughs about whatever was the lastest from Trump.

A family member I completely respect who is somewhat apolitical, though conservative in nature says (paraphrased)
" Saw Cruz interviewed, and they were asking him to respond about Trump's latest. I was impressed how Cruz didn't lower himself to that level"

[Radbird]

It is a complete mystery to me how 30% or whatever of Republican voters actually think voting for this guy is a good idea. I work daily with a large number of Republican voters. I cannot fathom even 2% of them voting for Trump, unless it is a joke.

I know. I don't get it either. I also work with a ton and they either fall into the Evangelical wing (who won't vote for Trump since he's so non-religious) or the more traditional wing, who are more behind people like Rubio or Bush. When you look at his rallies I think Trump is getting the "people of Walmart" vote. I don't work with people like that. And also don't forget: Trump might be getting 30% of the Republican vote but that's probably more like 15% of all voters being polled....or less if the poll doesn't count undecideds. It shows you how utterly terrible the field of candidates is this year.

Yet, inexplicably, he is getting evangelical endorsements. And this is from September.

Why Do Evangelicals Support Donald Trump?

Donald Trump is immodest, arrogant, foul-mouthed, money-obsessed, thrice-married, and until recently, pro-choice. By conventional standards, evangelical Christians should despise him. Yet somehow, the Manhattan billionaire has attracted their support.

According to the most recent polls, Trump is one of the top picks for president among evangelical Christians. One Washington Post poll even had him as the group’s favorite by a margin of six points. His first major rally in the Bible-Belt fortress town of Mobile, Alabama, drew an estimated 18,000 attendees. And on September 28, prominent televangelist Paula White will reportedly lead a delegation of evangelical leaders to meet with the mogul in Trump Tower.

“Why do they love me?” Trump replied when asked about the trend. “You’ll have to ask them. But they do. They do love me.”

Trump’s support among evangelicals is substantial, but it isn’t, well, yuuuuge. It’s too early to say whether Trump can grow his support among conservative Christians and continue to expand it to the broader Republican base. He’ll need to do both in order to win the primary, much less contend in the general election. For now, evangelicals need to ask themselves whether Trump’s brashness is enough to make them overlook many of the values they hold most dear.

If they don’t choose carefully, then after the Republican National Convention, they may find that they got what they wanted but no longer want what they’ve got.

[Arthur Dent]

I do feel like there's a bit of Pauline Kael's, "How could Nixon have won? Nobody I know voted for him." going on. The politics that generate Trump support aren't exactly hidden and pretty obviously powerfully popular in the Party even if you don't see it much in white collar workplaces. That said, it will be interesting to see whether its a constituency that will show up to vote in primaries.

[pioneer98]

This guy thinks Rubio is going to be the Republican nominee and I can't say I disagree. The gist of it is that if Rubio finishes a strong third or even somehow passes Cruz in Iowa and does well in early states, he will be in a position to pick up all the Bush, Christie, Kasich, etc supporters and finally someone will be strong enough to really take on Trump.

http://iowastartingline.com/2016/01/27/ ... g-in-iowa/

[Arthur Dent]

The consolidated establishment block vote is still only ~20%. Who knows how the actually voting will go, but even picking up all the Bush, Christie, and Kasich support still leaves Rubio in poor position.

[Popeye_Card]

Sure, the combined "establishment candidate" percentages only add up to around 20%. But others will likely be dropping out after Iowa and NH. Are the Carson voters going to go to Trump or Cruz, or will they swing to the establishment candidate? Are the Fiorina voters only going to vote for women with zero credentials, or are they OK with a businessman with no political credentials?

I think by Super Tuesday there will probably only be 3 mainstream candidates left. Trump, probably Cruz, and one of Rubio/Bush/Kasich/Christie. Rubio looks like he'll take first place among that group in Iowa. Kasich is looking strong in NH. Hopefully whoever wins out of that group can gain enough steam to start defeating Cruz, then eventually Trump. Those guys have warts, but I can still accept them as a legit president. A Cruz or Trump presidency would simply be unbearable.

[Dillagii]

Is it safe to say that this is a race between Trump and Cruz and Rubio? Any darkhorse candidate coming up?

[TimeForGuinness]

I think it will be interesting to see what the superdelegates do.