How many games will the Cubs win?

[pioneer98]

At the park with my kids tonight wearing my Cardinals hat. A random guy sees me, says "Oooh, you must be a Cardinals fan" and gets up off a bench and takes off his sunglasses. He then tells me the Cubs were losing 2-1 at the time, but had just executed a perfect hit and run. I was like "OK". I was caught off guard and didn't know what else to say. Of all the stuff he could have said though...

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

Haha. Ok

[jim]

Best 40 game start since the '39 Yankees.

[dan_yall]

Through 64 games:

2015 Cardinals: 43-21
2016 Cubs: 44-20
2001 Mariners: 50-14

[davhern]

Through 64 games:

2015 Cardinals: 43-21
2016 Cubs: 44-20
2001 Mariners: 50-14

1998 Yankees - 48-16

[JL21]

They are now one game worse through 73 games than last year's Cardinals. They are also 1 1/2 games ahead of the Giants, and one game ahead of the Rangers.

This is all still very impressive, but maybe we can table some of the articles about them being the best team of all time.

[Magneto2.0]

They are now one game worse through 73 games than last year's Cardinals. They are also 1 1/2 games ahead of the Giants, and one game ahead of the Rangers.

This is all still very impressive, but maybe we can table some of the articles about them being the best team of all time.

It was clear they weren't going to play to that level all season. Their roster is great but it's not "All-time" great, not even a little bit. Not even the best roster of the last 5 years.

[Magneto2.0]

At this point last year the Cardinals were 49-24. Cubs currently are 48-25.

(Also the Cubs were 39-33 at this point last year, and 9.5 back. Just saying).

[Bo Hart]

They are now one game worse through 73 games than last year's Cardinals. They are also 1 1/2 games ahead of the Giants, and one game ahead of the Rangers.

This is all still very impressive, but maybe we can table some of the articles about them being the best team of all time.

In fairness to the Cubs, they are still head and shoulders above the rest of the league in terms of Pythagorean record. Their 3rd Order record is 55-18. The Giants (44-32) and the Rangers (39-36) aren't particularly close.

Top five records in baseball according to 3rd Order Pythag are:
1. Cubs - 55-18
2. Nationals - 48-26
3. Red Sox - 47-27
4. Cards - 46-27
5. Dodgers - 46-30

On the other hand, there's something to be said about sustainability of their run creation/prevention. Lester, Hammel, and Arrieta have 3 of the top 6 strand rates in the NL this year. Good team defense or not, that's probably not going to last.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Yeah, for a point of comparison, if the Cubs win tomorrow they'll be on pace for 106 wins(3rd most in the WC era and most in 15 years, I believe) even after losing 6 of 8 and with a run differential that's better than that pace. You should always always always bet on regression when it comes to extreme outliers because even the most insanely talented team will not be very likely to win 110+ games, but if any team had shown a hope of sustaining the pace, it was them.