My prediction: We sign Robert for a total of $65 mil. Yours?

[vinsanity]

I can tell you how much the Cardinals will be paying him now. I can also tell you how much the Cardinals will be paying for their first three picks. The same amount.

The core continues to age.

Draft picks and a 19 year old Cuban doesn't really help this core.

There's a real problem brewing for the organization in that it's bereft of top tier offensive talent. However, offensive talent ages better and less risky in terms of injury.

I don't think it's fair to assume the team is automatically out on guys like Harper and Machado, even when accounting for past misses. Mozeliak is 1 for 2 on super star offensive players under the age of 30 by my count. Holliday and Heyward. I think everyone here has guys they would have liked the team to spend on and no one would be perfect. Most organizations haven't signed a superstar in the last 15 years that turned out well. Many have signed one that crippled a franchise.

I guess my thoughts are simply; the is reason to hope that the team has a long term plan and will be in on guys like Machado and Harper. There's cause for concern that they won't spend the money as well. Spending time bemoaning failure and presuming future failure seems futile, depressing and counterproductive. This, in my opinion, was a big miss because the minors is lacking impact offensive talent. Circle jerking this as proof they'll miss on the next big move is just an exercise in shouting in to the echo chamber.

[salukifan2]

What guys like Holliday have the Cardinals signed this decade?

How many teams have won more than the Cardinals this decade?

Not many..........

Soc, you sound like a Reds fan in 2014.

[Johnconrad]

I can tell you how much the Cardinals will be paying him now. I can also tell you how much the Cardinals will be paying for their first three picks. The same amount.

The core continues to age.

Draft picks and a 19 year old Cuban doesn't really help this core.

There's a real problem brewing for the organization in that it's bereft of top tier offensive talent. However, offensive talent ages better and less risky in terms of injury.

I don't think it's fair to assume the team is automatically out on guys like Harper and Machado,

It's only fair if you watch what they actually do, instead of speculating on what they may do.

[Johnconrad]

Fwiw, I think I'm ok with letting this go. If we set the precedent that we'll overpay on anyone decent because St. Louis sucks, we'll do that for every signing. Then we're giving even more money on an already bad deal to guys like Heyward to buy their love.

We have to stay with guys like Holliday that would appreciate a small city, and continue building through the draft like we have been. We're just in a lull right now and the lost picks don't help. It'll even out and we'll snag a surprise FA or big trade for a medium superstar, and supplement with average players like we've done since 2000.

What guys like Holliday have the Cardinals signed this decade?

How many teams have won more than the Cardinals this decade?

Not many..........

That's the very next thing that comes up after the national anthem each night.

[vinsanity]

It's only fair if you watch what they actually do, instead of speculating on what they may do.

Aren't you speculating on what they will do?

[Johnconrad]

I've watched what they have done and continue to do - precious little.

They spent more on Bret Cecil than they would have had to invest in Luis Robert.

They obtained Dexter Fowler a year too late and overpaid. Moe then said he'd add a "complimentary player" when he just paid 80 million for one.

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

I'm confused. Are you saying his ability to make another 50 mil through arbitration make it not a no brainier? In order to make 50ish mil in arbitration, that player has to be a Manny Machado type player. Machado earned about 1.5 mil his first three years total, 5 mil his 4th year, is making 11.5 this year and will earn probably 20ish next year. If a team is paying a guy 50mil through arbitration, that player is in the MVP race and providing MAASSIVE surplus value well in excess of whatever signing bonus the Cardinals would have given Robert. It is a no brainier in that case.

No, I'm saying that there's no guarantee that it would have ended well.

Because of what TT said, or, just an in general nothing in baseball is guaranteed sense?

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

If the team was to win a high stakes bidding war every now and then then I could be more understanding when for whatever reason they don't go all in. But we have seen then consistently come up short. It's looks like it's an attempt at PR to show that the team is really interested in making a big move, when they really have no intention of spending what's necessary.

They just keep accumulating (and banking) that "dry powder"

Hogwash

Team payroll has sunk to 42-43% from 52-53% in 2006

I've seen you post this a few times. Can you link me to it?

Not sure what John is using to get his data, but here's Forbes overview of the Cardinals. This is the 2017 overview which I believe uses 2016 data.

https://www.forbes.com/teams/st-louis-cardinals/

They include benefits and bonuses and have player costs at 56% of Revenue.

[dmarx114]

Does Mo get any credit for Mike Leake's performance so far this season?

Or are we just going to continue complaining about Robert, Heyward, and Price?

[pioneer98]

This site says the Cardinals revenue in 2016 was $310 million:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/196 ... ince-2006/

The Cards' 25 man opening day payroll in 2016 was $145 million:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compe ... cardinals/

So that's like 46.7% for 2016. The number vary depending on which ones you use (25 man vs 40 man for example). But the trend is clearly downward since 2005 no matter how you really look at it.