Magneto2.0 wrote:Flahery, Alcantara, O'Neill, J. Martinez for Ozuna and whatever lower tier minor to even out the trade
This feels like an overpay. But let's test it out.
Ozuna has two more years of control. BB Ref estimates his 2018 arb. salary around $10.9M. Let's say for those two years, you're going to pay $24M. Steamer and Depth Charts project him in the mid-to-high 3's for wins (3.5 and 3.7). Let's assume that the market will pay him, in prospects, for more than that. We'll give him 9 wins over the next two years. That's reasonable.
In this market, the cost of a win is going to be about $10.5M. Multiplied by Ozuna's 9 win projection and you're looking at $94.5M. Subtract his actual $24M salary and you have to give the Marlins about $70M in surplus value.
Flaherty is a top 100 pitcher- he came in at #57 in the mid-season BA update. That's worth
$16.5M in value. Then you have Alcantara, who's not top 100 but he's right on the fringe. We don't have a firm value for that, but it's probably in the $14M range. Similarly, O'Neill is fringe top 100- hell, he was a top 100 then slipped a bit. Hitters have more value. That gets him in the $18M range. So far, we're just under $50M. You need to make up about $20M in surplus value to make this work.
That leaves us Jose Martinez. The Fish will get him for free for 2 years, then fairly cheap arb. prices for 3 years after that. To make up the value, Martinez just needs to be worth 2 wins between this year and next, or 3-3.5 wins over the next three years. He was worth 1.6 last year, Steamer and Depth Charts have him between 0.5 and 0.8 this year... He's no lock to make the 2 win total, or the 3-3.5 over three years, but he's a fairly reasonable bet to do so.
Long story short... this is a fair price. It's a small overpay, but that mostly depends on your opinion of Jose Martinez (and I don't think any of us care enough about Jose Martinez for it to stop a deal like this). And yes, there's competition driving up Ozuna's price but that's already included in his projected surplus value with a higher estimation of his 2-year worth.
I'd still much rather try to get it done without giving up Flaherty. Or better yet, I'd try to eat Ziegler's contract to see if that lets me keep Alcantara or Flaherty. But those four you mention are a fair deal.
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