"not worthy of its own thread" offseason thread

[TimeForGuinness]

The offseason market has been slooooow...so I doubt they're done, I assume that they're staying in touch with teams and waiting to see how the free agents will fall. Once that happens, we'll know who's contending & who isn't, and what it will cost to move players around. Doesn't surprise me that DeWitt & Mo are saying this, it's PR, they don't want to show their hand, they don't want to misjudge the market.

They have money and talent they can move, they have a lot of flexibility...but they probably don't want to lose that flexibility in December/January...unless the right player becomes available.

[InvincibleCakeEater]

the price for a reed may be higher than they like, so they'll roll with what they have in the bullpen...reyes comes back in may, and they've shown they're not afraid to go with a rookie closer before, so i can see them letting him go/see if he establishes himself for high leverage situations.

While it's true that we've not been afraid to throw a rookie into a closer role in the past, we've had more success placing them as firemen before the closer. That's what Lynn did, Rosenthal, Martinez. That's the role that makes the most sense for Reyes, behind an established closer and a wily veteran (Gregerson).

While Reyes has the fireballing K's, he also has an obscene BB rate. Command is always the last thing to come back for pitchers rehabbing from TJ. It seems foolishly risky to trust that Reyes will be able to come back on time and maintain the control/command he needs to fit into the closers role. It really feels more like setting the kid up for failure than anything else.

Additionally, throwing him into the closers role now hinders his overall development. He still needs starts. He still has stuff to work on. He still has a future with this club and that future is in the rotation. He's not the finished product that Wainwright or Lynn were when they interned in the pen. If we plan on Reyes being the closer this year, then we're planning on him being a spot starter next year because he won't have the work on his arm to handle 150 innings in '19. It will be 2021 before he's ready for a full workload.

Lynn the season before his callup:
1.2 HR/9
3.4 BB/9
7.7 K/9
4.77 ERA

Wainwright the season before his callup:
1.7 HR/9
4.0 BB/9
9.0 K/9
5.37 ERA

Not far from Reyes, except his K/9 is elite and he was younger than them at the level.

[MinorLeagueGuy]

Yep. Predictable is as predictable does. We were either spending money(taking on salary), or spending prospects. Not both. DeWitt keeps his prospects on his mantle in one of his numerous libraries\offices. He gave up 2 particularly precious pieces in Sierra and Alcantara. So that was the end of that story. We are far worse than last year particularly on the pitching side. At least last year we had hope there; Rosie was due a bounceback, Oh was stellar the year prior, Lynn..

I'm not answering the door today. Because I'm pretty sure Dollar Bill just left a flaming bag of crappola on my door step..

[Jocephus]

he seems way more interested in BPV and making sure that develops as he wants it to so he can just own downtown.

[MrCrowesGarden]

The offseason market has been slooooow...so I doubt they're done, I assume that they're staying in touch with teams and waiting to see how the free agents will fall. Once that happens, we'll know who's contending & who isn't, and what it will cost to move players around. Doesn't surprise me that DeWitt & Mo are saying this, it's PR, they don't want to show their hand, they don't want to misjudge the market.

They have money and talent they can move, they have a lot of flexibility...but they probably don't want to lose that flexibility in December/January...unless the right player becomes available.

I’m just not giving them that benefit of the doubt anymore.

[MinorLeagueGuy]

The offseason market has been slooooow...so I doubt they're done, I assume that they're staying in touch with teams and waiting to see how the free agents will fall. Once that happens, we'll know who's contending & who isn't, and what it will cost to move players around. Doesn't surprise me that DeWitt & Mo are saying this, it's PR, they don't want to show their hand, they don't want to misjudge the market.

They have money and talent they can move, they have a lot of flexibility...but they probably don't want to lose that flexibility in December/January...unless the right player becomes available.

I’m just not giving them that benefit of the doubt anymore.

Its weird. Like, they were super proactive when they saw Peralta out on the market because there just weren't a Lot of options in that area. But then there are times where they'll just button up the shop, before the work day is ended.

[Fat Strat]

We are far worse than last year particularly on the pitching side.

I think that you can like the moves we've made -- Gregorson and Mikolas -- and still agree with this statement.

There's no doubt that our pitching staff right now appears to be in much worse shape than it appeared to be last season at this exact same time. Bullpen looked darn good with Oh, Cecil, Rosenthal and the rest. Rotation looked solid. There was reason for optimism with Martinez and Reyes was coming in as our support guy and potential ace. That was a good place to be. Look how all that turned out.

And before you say, "well, that's not going to happen again" find a season where we didn't lose a significant bullpen and rotation piece due to an early injury or unexpected ineffectiveness.
Every year we lose a significant starter and we have unexpected turmoil in the pen from a place where we expected stability. Where are we going to be if Martinez, Wacha or Weaver get injured and Mikolas or Gregerson (or both) prove completely ineffective? Some combination of that scenario is almost certain to happen. And then it's on the kids again, and, frankly, we're not going to make the postseason trying to get 150 innings out of Flaherty and Dakota Hudson.

If we hold serve this offseason, then we're walking into a season where we have our best chance to overtake the Cubs not with confidence in the rotation and pen, but with uncertainty in both. Couple that with the certainty of injury and volatility, and we're a long way from DW3's "really good shot a a playoff spot."

Also, what the hell... a "really good shot at a playoff spot"? We've completely stopped talking about trying to win the division. Not even a goal of ours anymore. That's just sad.

[Fat Strat]

The offseason market has been slooooow...so I doubt they're done, I assume that they're staying in touch with teams and waiting to see how the free agents will fall. Once that happens, we'll know who's contending & who isn't, and what it will cost to move players around. Doesn't surprise me that DeWitt & Mo are saying this, it's PR, they don't want to show their hand, they don't want to misjudge the market.

They have money and talent they can move, they have a lot of flexibility...but they probably don't want to lose that flexibility in December/January...unless the right player becomes available.

I’m just not giving them that benefit of the doubt anymore.

And if the scenario that BDW3 describes happens and we wait until the deadline, what about all those losses from April - July? Do they not count? The highly competitive teams aren't sitting around all winter saying, "we'll play 2/3'rds of our games with a roster that has a good shot at the playoffs".

They're fielding a roster in April that has a great shot to win the division and they usually still adjust to holes that develop in order to have a great shot at a World Series.

That's what we should be playing for.

[letsgocards89]

Also, what the hell... a "really good shot at a playoff spot"? We've completely stopped talking about trying to win the division. Not even a goal of ours anymore. That's just sad.

This. So much this.

[TimeForGuinness]

The Cardinals (as of today if the roster holds) are conceding the division. They'll focus on competing with Milwaukee, Arizona, and Colorado for the wild card spots...and hope "they get hot or other teams are not" in the playoffs. There is still a lot of dust in the air, though. Not a lot happening so far this offseason.