"not worthy of its own thread" offseason thread

[Magneto2.0]

Cubs signing Yu probably pushes us a good 2-3 wins back, and we're probably already 4-5 wins back from them.

[MinorLeagueGuy]

The tree is shaking. Fallout from Yu\Cole pushes others to pull the trigger. Signing with the Astros would be a little weird, with all that Gurriel racist stuff. Recently too. Darvish won't even have an opportunity to throw at him to set things even(relatively-.

[misterManager]

Gurriel did shoot his front office in the foot on that one. Not like they don't have a wealth of CI on the farm waiting to come up and replace him if that was part of Yu's demands. I mostly don't see a big market who is up against the luxury tax going for him because he will likely be the one guy on this market to actually get about what he deserves, which will be a good chunk of change.

[Padsfs]

But you're talking about a guy who didn't pitch at all in 2016, faded badly down the stretch in 2015, had a dominant first two months of 2017 and then his stuff collapsed for a large chunk of time. He was very erratic. For a brief time, he got away with it, but then the bottom fell out in August. He rebounded a little at the end of the year. It's a risky profile. I guess the high end is Jhonny, but the low end is Ty Wigginton at more dollars and years. Relievers in general are volatile as hell, and Holland is doubly so.

That's an awfully negative view on Holland's 2017 season.

His "stuff collapsed" in, I'm assuming, June and July, when he posted a 1.69 and 2.25 ERA. Yes, his xFIP was high, but he was still holding hitters to OPS's of .589 and .670.

Then you said "he rebounded a little at the end of the year", which, I'm assuming is September, when he had a 1.86 ERA with a matching 2.77 xFIP to go along with a 1.86 BB/9 rate, the second lowest month of his season and an opponent's OPS of .391.

His ERA per month went:

Apr - 1.50
May - 1.17
Jun - 1.69
Jul - 2.25
Aug - 13.50
Sep - 1.86

These are all small sample sizes so I don't know that there's a lot of data to derive from it for future production, but there is clearly one outlier in that 6-month period.

Look at the K/9 rates too:

Apr - 11.83
May - 17.61
Jun - 10.13
Jul - 11.25
Aug - 7.71
Sep - 11.17

One variant again.

How about BABIP-against?

Apr - .250
May - .222
Jun - .240
Jul - .294
Aug - .333
Sep - .136

One big jump in August, again.

LOB%?

Apr - 83.3%
May - 100.0%
Jun - 85.7%
Jul - 93.0%
Aug - 45.5%
Sep - 65.2%

And again, one big variant....I'm not saying Holland is the answer, but he had a solid 2017 campaign, especially playing at Coors Field.

[Padsfs]

They're pretty well insulated as is WRT Pham with plenty of OF options available. They absolutely should insulate on Wong's floor (or Dejong's). Maybe they did that or tried doing that with Munoz, I don't know, but the infield has a very good chance of being bad.

Don't forget Schrock too. He is primarily a second baseman. Yairo Munoz plays SS, 3B, 2B, and CF. He is likely the Breyvic Valera replacement.

I love how the Ozuna/Piscotty trade basically took the established depth at outfield (Sierra) and pitching (Gallen) and shifted it to the infield (Schrock and Munoz). The upgrade was Ozuna for Piscotty and Alcantara basically.

Now Edman and Sosa won't be pushed up as well and Valera, Tovar, Wisdom, and Mejia provide nice Memphis depth behind Schrock and Munoz.

[JL21]

That's an awfully negative view on Holland's 2017 season.

His "stuff collapsed" in, I'm assuming, June and July, when he posted a 1.69 and 2.25 ERA. Yes, his xFIP was high, but he was still holding hitters to OPS's of .589 and .670.

Here's primarily what I was referencing, from FG on 8/24 (spoiled for size):

[SHOW]

And then the link:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-roc ... d-problem/

His velocity fell, his BB % went up and his K % went down (the K rate was fine for most of that time, but the % is the more important thing), his ability to hit the strike zone was erratic (and when he found it again in August, he got lit up like a Christmas tree). That's a huge red flag for me, especially when you're talking about a guy who missed all of the previous season and we're talking about 3 and 4 year deals.

[Jocephus]

tacopocket
1:04
Your guess as to where moustakas lands?

Eno Sarris
1:05
he's screwed. Mets are the only win-now team that could use him unless the Cardinals or Brewers surprise. You're not looking at a trio of big spenders.

[Jocephus]

Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that the Giants "remain in talks" with the Pirates about acquiring Andrew McCutchen.
Nightengale says the Giants attempted to sign free agent Jay Bruce, but their offer was about $10 million less than the three-year, $39 million deal he ultimately signed with the Mets. McCutchen is due $14.5 million in 2018 via a club option that was exercised in November. He can become a free agent next winter. The 31-year-old outfielder hit .279/.363/.486 with 28 home runs and 88 RBI over 156 games for the Pirates in 2017.
Related: Giants
Source: Bob Nightengale on Twitter
Jan 11 - 1:36 PM

[Padsfs]

His velocity fell, his BB % went up and his K % went down (the K rate was fine for most of that time, but the % is the more important thing), his ability to hit the strike zone was erratic (and when he found it again in August, he got lit up like a Christmas tree). That's a huge red flag for me, especially when you're talking about a guy who missed all of the previous season and we're talking about 3 and 4 year deals.

Thanks for the link. That explains a lot.

[Magneto2.0]