"not worthy of its own thread" offseason thread

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Why Mike Moustakas’ Market Didn’t Develop

by Jeff Sullivan - March 9, 2018
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/why-mik ... t-develop/

I feel like we don't need to hypothesize about Moustakas's defensive future to understand this, he's not only not very good, but he's been extremely inconsistent. He's been worth a cumulative 8.5 fWAR over the last 5 years, with 3 of those years being below 1.3. His ZiPS projection of 2.5 fWAR(which he's reached twice in his career and once in the last 5 years) rates 18th among 3rd basemen, and 25 3B project for at least 2.0 fWAR. Moustakas isn't even a specialized player either, you can't look at him and say 'well he may be inconsistent on the whole, but at least you know he'll be real good at X'. His defense hasn't consistently been great, his BABIP/average has had ups and downs, he's hit for more power with the juiced ball but nothing remarkable for his position. In a different year would he have gotten more money? Probably, but in a year where Todd Frazier(a player with greater consistency and higher highs, albeit a couple years older) gets 1/12, we should probably see it coming that Moustakas doesn't do any better.

[MrCrowesGarden]

I think you can still find Moose's contract unsettling without having to talk yourself into saying he's a superstar or something.

[Momo]

Why Mike Moustakas’ Market Didn’t Develop

by Jeff Sullivan - March 9, 2018
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/why-mik ... t-develop/

I feel like we don't need to hypothesize about Moustakas's defensive future to understand this, he's not only not very good, but he's been extremely inconsistent. He's been worth a cumulative 8.5 fWAR over the last 5 years, with 3 of those years being below 1.3. His ZiPS projection of 2.5 fWAR(which he's reached twice in his career and once in the last 5 years) rates 18th among 3rd basemen, and 25 3B project for at least 2.0 fWAR. Moustakas isn't even a specialized player either, you can't look at him and say 'well he may be inconsistent on the whole, but at least you know he'll be real good at X'. His defense hasn't consistently been great, his BABIP/average has had ups and downs, he's hit for more power with the juiced ball but nothing remarkable for his position. In a different year would he have gotten more money? Probably, but in a year where Todd Frazier(a player with greater consistency and higher highs, albeit a couple years older) gets 1/12, we should probably see it coming that Moustakas doesn't do any better.

Yeah the article is pretty much saying what you did. The primary thing it's saying is that he plays a position that other teams (particularly contenders) have pretty much set themselves at.

The other issue with Moose is that he does seemingly "specialize" in one thing, which is hitting dingers and whacking the ball real hard. But in the current post-juiced ball, post-launch angle era, who's going to pay a premium price for that when the trait is currently in overabundance?

I think you can still find Moose's contract unsettling without having to talk yourself into saying he's a superstar or something.

What's unsettling about supply and demand?

[MrCrowesGarden]

Teams are incentivized not to win.

This isn't to say that I don't think MLBPA didn't screw things up because they did.

[Momo]

Teams are incentivized not to win.

This isn't to say that I don't think MLBPA didn't screw things up because they did.

I don't agree.

Teams aren't incentivized to not win, they're incentivized to not spend.

Those might seem like similar claims, but I don't think they are.

[tlombard]

They are incentivized to win cheaply with young, bargain priced prospects and international free agents that they are not allowed to pay a decent bonus to sign. If they think they can get 20 homers out of a combination of prospects that they can send up and down until one of them sticks for the league minimum then they aren't going to pay $10+M for a 30 year old veteran who might hit them 25 homers with the way the current CBA is written.

If they win great, bloggers will write about how well the front office scouted and trusted their talent. If they don't win then they are rebuilding through the draft looking to the future. They almost can't lose if they spin things correctly to the media that covers them and influences a good portion of their fan base.

[Jocephus]

klof
10:12
What does the Moose market collapse tell us about some of the remaining free agents? Does Arrieta get a 7 year deal but for $40 mil or does he end up with a one year deal and 2019 turns into the off-season when everyone is a free agent?

Jeff Sullivan
10:12
I think Arrieta will ultimately sign for something pricey and shorter-term. I think Lynn is going to be unhappy

Moop
10:39
What is the likelihood that KC trades Mous mid-season? Is there anything that would prevent it? Seems like it would be a no-brainer for KC in the event of a 3B injury on another team (i.e. Cozart/Drury,etc). Thoughts?

Jeff Sullivan
10:39
He's not going to have too much midseason value. Even J.D. Martinez hardly brought the Tigers anything, and Mike Moustakas isn't J.D. Martinez

Stevil
10:45
4-man rotations complemented by 8 or 9-man bullpens. Bad idea, or the evolution of baseball given the lack of starters that can get through a lineup unscathed 3 times?

Jeff Sullivan
10:45
Why stop there? What does "starter" even mean these days? In 15 or 20 years there might be like 50 actual good starters, and a whole bunch of swingmen everywhere

Dominik
10:58
Craig wrote that article about the rays 4 men rotation. Isn't that actually a logical step to reduce the off days of the starters if the IP per game go down? Relievers also get less off days than starters after all. We won't see the guys throwing 300 innings in a 4 men again, but if you only go 4-5 a 4 men rotation could offer enough rest especially if you do a 4-3 inning tandem, right?

Jeff Sullivan
10:58
Yes
10:59
Now, it's interesting when you get to someone like Chris Archer, because you don't want to hold him to the same standards as, like, Nate Eovaldi. No one should be forcing Archer out of a game in the fourth inning. But the Rays only have one of those

[Jocephus]

William
11:06
How annoying is Joe Maddon?

Jeff Sullivan
11:06
Never met him

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I think you can still find Moose's contract unsettling without having to talk yourself into saying he's a superstar or something.

I think you can find far better examples of unsettling contracts(or lack thereof, in the case of Arrieta) if that's what you're after. We can acknowledge that Moustakas's market was depressed while also still having a primary focus that he's an unremarkable player at an incredibly deep position.

[jagtrader]

If the Cardinals were convinced Moustakas could be a decent middle reliever, they would have signed him.