Mike Trout

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Big Amoco Sign
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Re: Mike Trout

Post by Big Amoco Sign »

Well we all know Bonds was walked intentionally to score a bases loaded run.

How does that get factored into WAR?

This SB Nation video is cool:

“What if Barry Bonds has played without a baseball bat”
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JwMfT2cZGHg
Last edited by Big Amoco Sign on May 13 19, 9:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Kincaid
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Re: Mike Trout

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I am pretty sure Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs both count an IBB as an average PA for the hitter in their WAR calculations, so the value does depend on how good the hitter is. If Bonds has a .400 wOBA and the #8 hitter has a .300 wOBA, Bonds' IBBs will be valued at .400 wOBA and the #8 hitter's will be valued at .300 wOBA.
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Big Amoco Sign
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Re: Mike Trout

Post by Big Amoco Sign »

I thought only UBBs were factored in wOBA, since the formula subtracts out IBB but adds in HBP and Sac flies/hits. But I may be misunderstanding or maybe it's been updated?

Either way, Bonds recorded a record 41 IBBs with the bases empty. We all know he had a bases loaded walk. 28% of MLB's all time bases empty IBBs belong to Bonds.
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Kincaid
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Re: Mike Trout

Post by Kincaid »

Yeah, they remove IBB when calculating wOBA, but still count them as PAs when they tally up how many runs a hitter contributed. The end result is they end up just adding more PAs at the hitter's wOBA level.

For example, in 2004 Bonds had a .537 wOBA in 497 non-IBB PA, plus 120 IBB. When you convert that to runs above average (which is a combination of wOBA and PA), you give him credit for a .537 wOBA over 617 PA, which is the same as counting each of his 120 IBB as the same .537 wOBA he had when he didn't get intentionally walked. The IBB don't affect wOBA but do affect how many runs a hitter gets credited with, and how well the hitter performs when he doesn't get intentionally walked determines how much value he gets when he does get intentionally walked.
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Big Amoco Sign
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Re: Mike Trout

Post by Big Amoco Sign »

Kincaid wrote:Yeah, they remove IBB when calculating wOBA, but still count them as PAs when they tally up how many runs a hitter contributed. The end result is they end up just adding more PAs at the hitter's wOBA level.

For example, in 2004 Bonds had a .537 wOBA in 497 non-IBB PA, plus 120 IBB. When you convert that to runs above average (which is a combination of wOBA and PA), you give him credit for a .537 wOBA over 617 PA, which is the same as counting each of his 120 IBB as the same .537 wOBA he had when he didn't get intentionally walked. The IBB don't affect wOBA but do affect how many runs a hitter gets credited with, and how well the hitter performs when he doesn't get intentionally walked determines how much value he gets when he does get intentionally walked.
So wRAA factors in all BB. Got it.

Thanks for the explanation.
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pioneer98
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Re: Mike Trout

Post by pioneer98 »

From 2016:
https://library.fangraphs.com/the-begin ... ving-woba/
Image


From the comments on that article:
AshtonKathol
Hey,

I am new to advanced stats. Is someone able to explain to me why Intentional Walks is not included in the calculation for wOBA? Unless I am not understanding… it looks like IBB is isolated from the calculation?

Thanks
IBB are generally worth much less than uBB using this method because IBB occur when walks are least damaging to the pitcher (first base open). wOBA treats them as if they never happened at all, but when we use wOBA to build wRAA/Batting Runs/WAR, we are multiplying wOBA*PA (essentially) and are giving them credit for their average wOBA for each IBB (this has the effect of giving more credit to good hitters who get IBB than bad hitters who get IBB). You could create a wOBA that includes IBB, but they would be much less valuable than a normal walk.
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Big Amoco Sign
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Re: Mike Trout

Post by Big Amoco Sign »

My point is that, with that many IBBs, how many HRs/opportunities for more slugging damage were taken away from him because pitchers were 'skeered?'
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haltz
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Re: Mike Trout

Post by haltz »

Big Amoco Sign wrote:My point is that, with that many IBBs, how many HRs/opportunities for more slugging damage were taken away from him because pitchers were 'skeered?'
He gets credit for his normal HR/SLG damage in WAR for the PA in which he was intentionally walked. Kincaid covered this pretty well if you'd like to scroll up.
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Big Amoco Sign
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Re: Mike Trout

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haltz wrote:
Big Amoco Sign wrote:My point is that, with that many IBBs, how many HRs/opportunities for more slugging damage were taken away from him because pitchers were 'skeered?'
He gets credit for his normal HR/SLG damage in WAR for the PA in which he was intentionally walked. Kincaid covered this pretty well if you'd like to scroll up.
Yeah he did. There's nothing I don't get about wRAA.

wOBA goes up when there's extra damage, thus changes the scope of wRAA. So even in subtracted IBB for HR, I see it going up higher.
Last edited by Big Amoco Sign on May 13 19, 9:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
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haltz
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Re: Mike Trout

Post by haltz »

Big Amoco Sign wrote:
haltz wrote:
Big Amoco Sign wrote:My point is that, with that many IBBs, how many HRs/opportunities for more slugging damage were taken away from him because pitchers were 'skeered?'
He gets credit for his normal HR/SLG damage in WAR for the PA in which he was intentionally walked. Kincaid covered this pretty well if you'd like to scroll up.
Yeah he did. There's nothing I don't get about wRAA.
Your expertise is pretty recent. Here's what you said a few hours ago.
When WAR can correctly quantify IBB stat, Bonds’s will surpass Ruth by far.
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