Stanley Cup Finals 2019: Blues v. Bruins

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

FiveThirtyEight with another short article on the Blues, saying that they have "dominated" the Final... by citing that the Blues, aside from game 1 and including game 3, have won the possession battle handily (using corsi).

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ar ... his-thing/

I'm torn on what to think. On the one hand, they have seemingly controlled the puck/game quite a bit and there's no doubt 5v5 they're playing well. That said - and as the article alludes to - in both wins the Bruins lost a defenseman less than halfway into the game. And, both those games remained close regardless of what time of possession, shots, etc indicate. Rask has outplayed Binnington by quite a bit. And both the power play and penalty kill have been light years better for the Bruins. So, like I was saying last night and feel like I said ad nauseum in Game 7 against the Stars, dominating a game is great but it's irrelevant if the score doesn't reflect it. There are no moral victories this time of year.

In line with the article, it does feel like the Blues have had long stretches where they've been able to play their game. If that game is good enough to beat the Bruins is the million dollar question, though.

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

Def agree on some points AW. This run will be forever cemented in stl history if they win the cup. It will eventually be forgotten if they don't.

But I'm just enjoying the hell out of the ride right now. Boston is a hell of a team. Winning 2 of 3 is doable, but daunting.

The Blues are a very good team too.

Just win on Thursday. Worry about the rest later.

Agreed on enjoying the hell out of this right now. Happy and jealous you got to go to the game last night I can't imagine how awesome that was.

I will say this and go off on a little tangent.... hockey has thankfully allowed little AW to finally become interested in sports to the point that he will watch a full game with me and not wander off playing tiddly winks or something which he still tends to do during baseball games. And, I couldn't be more grateful. The playoffs last year helped as we rooted, to a degree, for Oshie which was nice. And, this year he'd kind of get interested in some regular season games when we had them on and the charge they made helped up the stakes. But, the playoffs and the intensity this year have really captivated his attention and it's been awesome hearing him explain to Mrs AW what's going on and ask me about games and when the next one is and how many more wins they need and blah blah blah. Also kind of annoying when he talks over the announcers during pivotal moments and I want to hear what is going on but it's also great. It cracks me up watching him try to fight off sleep. He'll like doze off, realize he's losing the battle, and go get some water. Then walk around and come right back and ass out on the couch. So, it's been great having an StL team go on a run like this that he can get behind and see that sports ain't all sunshine and rainbows but also doesn't miss the playoffs on the last week of the season. He's gotten so into it, Mrs. AW was even on board with me taking him up to a SCF game until we realized, eh, it's quite expensive. But, I for one will always remember this run quite fondly for probably different reasons than a lot of people.

That said, let's [expletive] go. The Bruins still have to win two games before hoisting the trophy and they have to do it without Chara. Steamroll the Bruins Thursday, just [expletive] demoralize the [expletive] out of them. And, then cap it off on Sunday. Let's [expletive] do this.

[Radbird]

FiveThirtyEight with another short article on the Blues, saying that they have "dominated" the Final... by citing that the Blues, aside from game 1 and including game 3, have won the possession battle handily (using corsi).

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ar ... his-thing/

Could we apply the Really Bad Start (RBS) stat to baseball too?

[Popeye_Card]

FiveThirtyEight with another short article on the Blues, saying that they have "dominated" the Final... by citing that the Blues, aside from game 1 and including game 3, have won the possession battle handily (using corsi).

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ar ... his-thing/

I'm torn on what to think. On the one hand, they have seemingly controlled the puck/game quite a bit and there's no doubt 5v5 they're playing well. That said - and as the article alludes to - in both wins the Bruins lost a defenseman less than halfway into the game. And, both those games remained close regardless of what time of possession, shots, etc indicate. Rask has outplayed Binnington by quite a bit. And both the power play and penalty kill have been light years better for the Bruins. So, like I was saying last night and feel like I said ad nauseum in Game 7 against the Stars, dominating a game is great but it's irrelevant if the score doesn't reflect it. There are no moral victories this time of year.

In line with the article, it does feel like the Blues have had long stretches where they've been able to play their game. If that game is good enough to beat the Bruins is the million dollar question, though.

Glad to see the Corsi stats back up my gut feel, that the Blues have dominated possession for most of the series outside of one horrible period (2nd of Game 1). Possession in hockey is like possession in football—the team that holds a significant edge usually wins the game. But like turnovers in football, penalties in hockey can doom you even if you dominate possession.

The SOG numbers were telling. The Blues were out-shot by a huge margin in the second period of game 1. Other than a 12-8 Boston edge in period 1 of game 3, it has been either close each period or the Blues with a big edge. By game totals the Blues have the edge since game 1.

But as you allude to, Binnington and the Blues D have to close the gap on Rask. For every 50 points of save percentage difference, you’re going to need about twice as many shots—nearly impossible to achieve. That said, I don’t think Rask will stay up around .950 forever, especially if Boston will be skating their 4th and 5th string left Dmen for significant minutes. They just so happen to defend 91’s side of the ice.

[JCShutout]

Rask definitely outplayed Binnington in game 3. (although I don't think most of the goals in that game were Binny's fault. One for sure wasn't a great goal)

I DON'T think Rask outplayyed Binny in games 1, 2 and 4, or if so, it was slightly. I think they both played very well in those games. Rash gave up questionable goals in game 1 (the 1st) and game 4 (the 1st) too. You could even argue that Gunnar's game 2 winner was because Rask was playing WAY in his net instead of cutting down the angle for a shot from the point. The back of his skates should be at the top of the crease there.

Binny hasn't stolen a game (almost stole game 1), and Rask has been fantastic, but it hasn't been night and day. (excepting game 3, but that only counts as one against)

Boston has more "pretty" plays, (though the Blues can have those too) but the Blues had, IMO more high quality chances in game 4 by a large margin. Lots of potential screens, deflections, rebounds. ROR barely misses a SHG. Dunn hits the post. Etc.

As Popeye said, controlling possession doesn't equal winning, because anything can happen, but it gives you a significant chance of winning the majority of the time.

[Freed Roger]

looking at plus-minus playoff stats. Chara leads it all with +12.

Surprised to see Taransenko -4

though I have no idea of the relevance & what skews it. I suppose if player does more pp killing, that skews it.

Hockey has to be the trickiest sport wrt to stat interpretation and utilization. hard to get apples to apples comparisons i.e. like there are hits and there are HITS.

https://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/STL/2019.html

[Popeye_Card]

+/- is only at even strength. It can still be skewed by your matchups though, so most people don’t pay much attention to it. Though large numbers can still give you a sense if someone is either a plus player on the ice, or a net detriment to his team.

Chara’s number is large enough to be meaningful, especially when Boston’s potent PP doesn’t count in his ledger. Tarasenko’s likely isn’t, especially since a lot of his scoring and ice time comes on the PP.

[GeddyWrox]

I've seen a few of this guy's videos. Nothing fancy, but he does a great job breaking things down. Great look at how the Blues have gotten to where they are and trying to suss out any patterns in the 7 game serieseseses.

[lukethedrifter]

Just read a Athletic article that suggests the Blues success hinges on whether JayBo is crappy or passable.

[GeddyWrox]

OMG I AM A BASKET CASE TODAY LET'S DO THIS