Big Amoco Sign wrote:Still enough time to get that 6 WAR season.*
4.5 right now. That thread had some interesting analysis in it; would be good to go back and review after the season. The premise isn't far off from what is happening. 6 WAR is just too hard for him because he doesn't have power or some crazy high BB rate. But, I think I remember saying 4-5 was definitely possible. Here we are!
Here's part of what I wrote in response to your GDT 6 WAR fun prediction:
Couldn't, in a career year, Kolten Wong's .257/.327/.386... become something like Jason Kipnis' - .276/.349/.429?
Yes, I do believe it could. It's not out of the realm of possibility at all. In fact, it really fits well with Wong's offensive profile in a typical career year, across the board bump. One season from Kipnis stands out -- 2016. Here, Kipnis produced .275/.343/.469 with a 114 wRC+ and a 10.0 DEF value (built from a 8.2 UZR). His WAR value? Not 6+. But, at 4.7... darn good!
There you have it folks. Kolten Wong's career year is Jason Kipnis circa 2016. Maybe Wong doesn't hit that slug%, but maybe he puts together more defense and contact ability -- a .280-.290 BA is not a stretch for Wong. But, here is the real key. That season, Kipnis had 688 PA's. Wong hasn't had over 411 since 2015. If Wong has any chance of reaching Kipnis' level, I think it all starts with health. If Wong can stay on the field, continue to produce at an elite level defensively, AND find a little extra in his bat, he could break 4 WAR. If...
I get predictions wrong all the time, but this one is on point.
Wong '19 (so far) - .285/.367/.430, 109 wRC+, on pace for 583 PA's and 4.1 fWAR.
Kipnis '16 - .275/.343/.469, 114 wRC+, 4.7 fWAR.
Wong with more contact and less power. Wong's WAR is lower not because of injury but because hitting down in the order has cost him PA's.