Coronavirus

[Smith Corks One]

Tony, what are the 6 countries?

[Joe Shlabotnik]

Just got a notice on my phone from Oregon Public Radio that Gov. Kate Brown has confirmed the first case of C0v19 in the state. Didn't provide where or any other details.

[sighyoung]

I'm not an investment professional, so I'll offer this as an opinion rather than advice: while not pulling out of the market (it's far too late for that),this is going to be a period of volatility and uncertainty in the stock markets. I think it's better to pay down debt or save. Markets belatedly began to price in the effect of widespread economic disruption, and there are too many unknowns right now. Markets can go much lower as well as up again, and they can yo-yo for a while.

This was already an economy built on the thinnest of stilts: we're still in the midst of a trade war that has disrupted the country's supply chains and export markets. This shock makes everything far, far worse.

Worst yet, the current administration has no credibility, and little means at its disposal to calm the markets or soften the economic downturn.

First, the administration has no credibility: three years of lying about crowd sizes and hurricane forecasts mean that nobody believes Lawrence Kudlow when he tells people to "buy the dip." Trump's public statements are all pure political calculation: he has nothing to lose by saying everything's fine because he's screwed if they aren't, but can look prescient if things don't turn out badly--but he doesn't really know. In addition, three years of removing, attacking, or muzzling experts from the civil service mean that there is no trusted voice on public-health matters high up in the administration or who can get President Instant Gratification to listen and take prudent steps. The administration will likely advocate policies for its own self-interest at the expense of human lives.

Even the Fed doesn't know what will happen, but does know that interest-rate changes now would kick in far too late to do any short-term good--maybe nine months from now.

In addition, we're learning that deficits do matter--what fiscal stimulus are we going to provide with an annual debt of over a trillion dollars?

My money in the market is going to stay there, but I'm going to focus on saving and reducing debt right now.

[Jocephus]

[pioneer98]

I'm not an investment professional, so I'll offer this as an opinion rather than advice: while not pulling out of the market (it's far too late for that),this is going to be a period of volatility and uncertainty in the stock markets. I think it's better to pay down debt or save. Markets belatedly began to price in the effect of widespread economic disruption, and there are too many unknowns right now. Markets can go much lower as well as up again, and they can yo-yo for a while.

This was already an economy built on the thinnest of stilts: we're still in the midst of a trade war that has disrupted the country's supply chains and export markets. This shock makes everything far, far worse.

Worst yet, the current administration has no credibility, and little means at its disposal to calm the markets or soften the economic downturn.

First, the administration has no credibility: three years of lying about crowd sizes and hurricane forecasts mean that nobody believes Lawrence Kudlow when he tells people to "buy the dip." Trump's public statements are all pure political calculation: he has nothing to lose by saying everything's fine because he's screwed if they aren't, but can look prescient if things don't turn out badly--but he doesn't really know. In addition, three years of removing, attacking, or muzzling experts from the civil service mean that there is no trusted voice on public-health matters high up in the administration or who can get President Instant Gratification to listen and take prudent steps. The administration will likely advocate policies for its own self-interest at the expense of human lives.

Even the Fed doesn't know what will happen, but does know that interest-rate changes now would kick in far too late to do any short-term good--maybe nine months from now.

In addition, we're learning that deficits do matter--what fiscal stimulus are we going to provide with an annual debt of over a trillion dollars?

My money in the market is going to stay there, but I'm going to focus on saving and reducing debt right now.

That's basically what I am doing. I did have quite a bit of money in some mutual funds tied to the stock market. Those had only gone down 2% to 3%. So I went ahead and sold those and put them in some lower risk stuff like bonds and another fund that is supposed to protect against inflation losses.

The though that is burned into my memory is back in the 2007-8 financial crisis, ALL of my mutual funds dropped by 30% regardless of whether they were considered "risky" or not. Didn't matter. I don't think I had much in bonds back then though.

[sparks]

Live Stats

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6

[Jocephus]

1st US death

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/1s ... y-n1145931

[Arthur Dent]

The grocery hoarding phase appears to have kicked off.

[heyzeus]

We will rebuild our economy through irrational consumer spending on unnecessary bulk goods.

[wart57]

The grocery hoarding phase appears to have kicked off.

BIG TIME.....