Coronavirus

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AWvsCBsteeeerike3
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by AWvsCBsteeeerike3 »

Makes sense. I tend to agree with Lipsitch here in the short term which is an obvious statement. Covid is worse than the common cold and there will, for years, be naive older people that refuse to get vaccinated.

100 years from now, given natural infection/vaccination prevents sickness but doesn't stop transmission, everyone will be exposed either through vaccine/natural infection/both well before they enter the higher risk demographics.

One thing I'm not sure if the article touched on (couldn't read it behind the paywall) is the natural tendency for viruses to become less harmful as they mutate/evolve.

It's weird to think of a virus trying to do something, but really they just 'want' to reproduce. Which means infecting something.

The more harmful a virus is the less people it will infect. Taken to the extremes, look at a virus that kills the host within a minute of infecting them. That virus ain't spreading very far. Conversely, if it does absolutely nothing and causes no symptoms, well, people will happily carry its viral ass with them wherever they go. And, the virus will reproduce and be transmitted to others.

Viruses obviously don't make decisions on how harmful they are. (Only governments do that, I kid, I kid :) ) But, given the shear number of Sars-Cov-2 in the world, there will be mutations and those that cause less harm to the host will invariably spread more. Given enough time, no idea how long probably decades, those strains that do less harm will circulate more giving the body exposure without serious adverse effects. The strains that do more harm will be recognized, isolated, and the virus will die. So, even ignoring vaccines, on a long enough timeframe (much longer than we would want to rely on), Sars-Cov-2 will very likely weaken almost to a point of unrecognition.

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GeddyWrox
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by GeddyWrox »

AWvsCBsteeeerike3 wrote:
January 12 21, 10:57 am
Makes sense. I tend to agree with Lipsitch here in the short term which is an obvious statement. Covid is worse than the common cold and there will, for years, be naive older people that refuse to get vaccinated.

100 years from now, given natural infection/vaccination prevents sickness but doesn't stop transmission, everyone will be exposed either through vaccine/natural infection/both well before they enter the higher risk demographics.

One thing I'm not sure if the article touched on (couldn't read it behind the paywall) is the natural tendency for viruses to become less harmful as they mutate/evolve.

It's weird to think of a virus trying to do something, but really they just 'want' to reproduce. Which means infecting something.

The more harmful a virus is the less people it will infect. Taken to the extremes, look at a virus that kills the host within a minute of infecting them. That virus ain't spreading very far. Conversely, if it does absolutely nothing and causes no symptoms, well, people will happily carry its viral ass with them wherever they go. And, the virus will reproduce and be transmitted to others.

Viruses obviously don't make decisions on how harmful they are. (Only governments do that, I kid, I kid :) ) But, given the shear number of Sars-Cov-2 in the world, there will be mutations and those that cause less harm to the host will invariably spread more. Given enough time, no idea how long probably decades, those strains that do less harm will circulate more giving the body exposure without serious adverse effects. The strains that do more harm will be recognized, isolated, and the virus will die. So, even ignoring vaccines, on a long enough timeframe (much longer than we would want to rely on), Sars-Cov-2 will very likely weaken almost to a point of unrecognition.
This isn't explicitly addressed in the article but I feel like it's somewhat implied. I was lucky enough to still have a free preview left this month somehow. LOL

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mikechamp
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by mikechamp »

AWvsCB:

I'm going to post a new thread that could contradict the latter half of your post. I'd like to read your thoughts on it, once I post it.

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sighyoung
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Re: Coronavirus

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Radbird
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Radbird »

Powerful.

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Joe Shlabotnik
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Re: Coronavirus

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We're scheduled for our first shot on Friday afternoon. Kind of excited actually.

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Jocephus
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Jocephus »

just putting here 'cause it relates to getting covid after vaccine...(although its just notification, no science behind it, etc)

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GeddyWrox
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by GeddyWrox »

Jocephus wrote:
January 14 21, 10:32 am
just putting here 'cause it relates to getting covid after vaccine...(although its just notification, no science behind it, etc)
It depends on the timing of when he was exposed. If he was exposed right before his second injection, it's possible that he still had it but a milder version (held in check somewhat by the first dose of the vaccine). Even for a few days or weeks after the second injection, I think you are still aren't fully inoculated. I remember reading that it takes a week or two after the second dose for the full effect.

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AWvsCBsteeeerike3
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by AWvsCBsteeeerike3 »

Exactly. Also, no one said the virus was 100% effective.

Virus is 95% effective a week or two after the 2nd dose is given. Hundreds of thousands are starting to get to the point where they're reaching that point of being a week or two past their 2nd dose. Should be expected a few people will still get it.

Anecdotally, my wife has seen a handful of patients that tested positive a couple days after getting the first dose and her friend in dallas noted that she had seen a 'lot' of people testing positive after the first dose. And, I was like...yeah, there's a 'lot' of people being infected overall and tens of thousands are getting their first dose every day between little rock and dallas. So...it should be expected.

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mikechamp
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by mikechamp »

But I thought as soon as you got the first dose, an invisible force field encircled you immediately and repelled all viruses and illnesses.

This vaccine is such a crock.

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