Jordan Walker

[Jocephus]

maybe related, but i often wonder about the pujols effect. for a decade we had a guy basically providing 2 all-star level value in one position. he was such a special player and he kinda came out of nowhere, and really carried the org for all that time. while i dont think fans/prognosticators expect the next hyped prospect to reach *that* level of talent, when they do get the hype and then are just kinda meh, it's a bit deflating.

[jagtrader]

Other organizations develop stars. The Cardinals develop guys who become stars somewhere else.

[Magneto2.0]

Soto, Griffey and Cabrera are 3 of the greatest hitters in the history of baseball though

Walker had a 116 wRC+ in his rookie season at 21 years old. To put that in perspective, Elly De La Cruz wRC+ last year was 84.

He seems very streaky, which is the only thing I have taken away from him so far. So he'll be frustrating where he has dry spells, but I think he ends up being a very good hitter once he reaches his full potential.

That's the thing though, doesn't he have to be a star hitter to make up for the defensive ineptitude? I'm certainly not casting him off.

I think he will be a star hitter, I don't know about him being a top 5 hitter of his generation like the aforementioned guys are.

He's made some improvements on defense this year, which is a good step. I don't think he'll ever be a plus defender (at least not in the outfielder) so your overall point of him of him having to hit very well to be valuable, I agree. And I think he will.

I think any nervousness around Walker, at least currently, is premature and a product of Dylan Carlson failures. Meaning since we recently just saw a highly touted outfield prospect pretty much flame out, fans are looking at all our big name prospects through a very cynical lens.

It’s not just Carlson though. How many Cardinals prospects seem to peak in their rookie seasons? Not that you can’t play them, but you hope they’ll build off a good rookie season and then just never do, capping out as average?

I think the difference is most of them were not highly thought of to begin with. Carlson stands out from the rest because he was actually highly touted. We have had a majority of our minor leaguers kinda settle into mid-level players and not improve much from their rookie years, but almost none of them came with much fanfare or high expectations anyway. A great rookie campaign was more a pleasant surprise and a "fingers crossed they can maintain this level" type of thing.

In recent memory it's just been Carlson, Walker and Gorman really since Taveras that have been well thought of on a nationally level, at least offensively.

Since 2015 only Gorman, Walker, Winn and Carlson have made a MLB.com top 50 prospect list as hitters (With Walker peaking at 4 in 2023). From 2015-2018 we didn't even have a single player (pitcher or hitter) make the top 100. So I say that's more a product of us not having good systems in recent memory more than it is a commentary of prospects failing other than Carlson.

[Magneto2.0]

maybe related, but i often wonder about the pujols effect. for a decade we had a guy basically providing 2 all-star level value in one position. he was such a special player and he kinda came out of nowhere, and really carried the org for all that time. while i dont think fans/prognosticators expect the next hyped prospect to reach *that* level of talent, when they do get the hype and then are just kinda meh, it's a bit deflating.

Good point. Most prospects don't end up being generational talents. If a prospect ends up being a solid everyday player, it's still extremely valuable, even if it's disappointing. I just don't know that outside of Walker, Gorman and Carlson that any of our hitting prospects really had a pedigree that would lend us to believe they would be anything more than that.

[Magneto2.0]

Other organizations develop stars. The Cardinals develop guys who become stars somewhere else.

Most teams don't have homegrown star players. Solid/good players, sure. Even the guys that left us and ended up having good careers, there's only a couple that became stars.

To give an example since leaving Randy Arozarena has accumulated around an 11 fWAR with the Rays. In that same timeframe Tommy Edman has accumulated around a 12 fWAR (taking out his 3.6 fWAR rookie season). Is Edman a star?

[jagtrader]

The old defensive WAR is the same as offensive WAR bit. A strong defensive infielder will always look better in that math formula than a middling fielder at corner OF. Would I trade the past three years of Edman for Arozarena? In a heartbeat.

It's about building a team that can win and developing hitters is extremely difficult. You know what the Cardinals need? One freakin outfielder who can hit. Arozarena has 2,000 plate appearances with an OPS+ of 126. We should do cartwheels if Walker can duplicate that production.

[Magneto2.0]

I'm not a WAR-only guy, as I think it doesn't tell the whole story. I was just using that as an example simply because I think "star" is all about perception than reality 90% of the time.

I think Arozarena is a good player. Is he a star? I think his 2020 WS run propelled him into a light of being greater than he is. 3 win player that's around a 125 wRC+ guy, is that a star? I don't think so. Still very good though.

If Walker peaks as Arozarena, I do not think the majority of this board would call him a star. Now if he was on another team doing it....they definitely would. Just saying.

[WAR God]

Who is Jordan Walker?

He’s still only 22 years old. Turns 23 in May.



Will he find his footing? Or end up the latest talented Cardinal player to catch on somewhere else and become a solid contributor.

[Popeye_Card]

That total MLB line is not completely terrible, given his age. If he put that together over the course of one season as a 21 or 22 year old, you could look at it and be satisfied. Well, maybe if he also played decent defense.

The problem is he took such a huge step back in 2024, both at the MLB and MiLB levels. It is hard to be optimistic.

[MrCrowesGarden]

Especially after watching similar pops and fizzles with Carlson and Gorman