StL will guage Arenado trade interest

[Jocephus]

On the positive side, I hear that Girsch has just about perfected a paper airplane design that will fly halfway across the field at Busch Stadium.

special projects GOAT!

[haltz]

I'm now less confident about that last one and it's the only area that bugs me. I don't see any reason to pin what happens with Fedde and Matz to what happens with Arenado but for some reason they seem to be doing that. Or maybe the market just hasn't materialized.

I don't see them spending any money on the bullpen unless they're spending money in general, which we knew they wouldn't.

They're obsessed with the market and that's all they talk about, even when they're getting ahead of it, which we can [expletive] about not being creative but the last two big free agent signings are your best hitter and pitcher and even jumping on mediocrity last year helped bring the runs allowed total from 829 to 719.

It seems pretty obvious that Bregman is holding up an Arenado trade - the one we heard about was with the team that had already moved on. I'm guessing the details of what happens there dictate some of the next moves. There's an argument to wait until closer to the season to trade Helsley and Fedde, even into spring training or the first month of the season, but at the deadline they are simply worth less than they are now.

[dmarx114]

If you're in a "reset," whatever that means in corporate speak, and you're cutting payroll while keeping an injury-prone closer entering his walk year, you're doing it wrong.

A smart team trades Helsley at last year's deadline so teams can get two postseasons out of him and they can maximize his value. But that would require the Cardinals to have some vision 10 seconds into the future. Instead they keep him, decide they're not contending in Helsley's walk year, then STILL don't trade him until, presumably, this July.

Agree that not trading now Helsley would be a massive failure. That has to get done. I am concerned it won't get done.

[dmarx114]

My understanding of their priorities earlier on was something like this, which I was/am fine with given the circumstances:

Reduce payroll this year and maybe next due to decreased tv revenue and recent ticket sales.
Hope to contend with a younger roster, but sink or swim on it.
Keep reliable, paid/controlled players like Helsley in areas where they don't have confidence in their prospects. I think they want their starting prospects to start.
Trade players like Arenado, Fedde and Matz - non-difference makers (offensively in Arenado's case) who don't substantially improve upon what the prospect's ceilings are.


I'm now less confident about that last one and it's the only area that bugs me. I don't see any reason to pin what happens with Fedde and Matz to what happens with Arenado but for some reason they seem to be doing that. Or maybe the market just hasn't materialized.

I don't see them spending any money on the bullpen unless they're spending money in general, which we knew they wouldn't.

2023 was a disaster record wise, but they probably should have won 10 more games.

In 2024, they had a winning record, but won a ton of close games.

In both years, they were around a 76 win team.

In 2025, they need to stop fooling themselves. They aren't going to make the playoffs. Do a full rebuild, strengthen the farm system, and let Walker, Winn, Gorman, Burlseon, Donovan, and Saggese each have 500+ plate appearances. Give McGreevey 20+ starts. Bring Hence and Mathews up at some point this season.

Buying top free agents will never happen here. Our path to winning is through the kids. Draft, develop, and let them play.

[ghostrunner]

I don't think top free agents are necessary, but there's no reason they can't and shouldn't at least outdo the Brewers on that front.

It's possible we're just going to permanently be in the middle of MLB in payroll going forward, and if we stay there it'll be tough to stay engaged. Winning playoffs (if that's a goal they have) with kids doesn't just happen, even for teams who are good at development. The Brewers have yet to get past the NLCS and the Rays have gotten there once since 2008, in the Covid season.

[Popeye_Card]

I don't think top free agents are necessary, but there's no reason they can't and shouldn't at least outdo the Brewers on that front.

It's possible we're just going to permanently be in the middle of MLB in payroll going forward, and if we stay there it'll be tough to stay engaged. Winning playoffs (if that's a goal they have) with kids doesn't just happen, even for teams who are good at development. The Brewers have yet to get past the NLCS and the Rays have gotten there once since 2008, in the Covid season.

I think the Cardinals can be one step beyond the Brewers and Rays though, in that they are more willing/able to extend good players into their post-arb contracts. So maybe not signing FA's, but being able to keep your own beyond 6-7 years.

Of course the Rays tried with Wander Franco, but...yeah.

[dmarx114]

I don't think top free agents are necessary, but there's no reason they can't and shouldn't at least outdo the Brewers on that front.

It's possible we're just going to permanently be in the middle of MLB in payroll going forward, and if we stay there it'll be tough to stay engaged. Winning playoffs (if that's a goal they have) with kids doesn't just happen, even for teams who are good at development. The Brewers have yet to get past the NLCS and the Rays have gotten there once since 2008, in the Covid season.

Of course it happens. Playoffs are a complete crapshoot. But I don't want to derail the convo, so I will leave it at that.

Also, the Cardinals consistently spend more on free agents than the Brewers.

[ghostrunner]

I don't think top free agents are necessary, but there's no reason they can't and shouldn't at least outdo the Brewers on that front.

It's possible we're just going to permanently be in the middle of MLB in payroll going forward, and if we stay there it'll be tough to stay engaged. Winning playoffs (if that's a goal they have) with kids doesn't just happen, even for teams who are good at development. The Brewers have yet to get past the NLCS and the Rays have gotten there once since 2008, in the Covid season.

Of course it happens. Playoffs are a complete crapshoot. But I don't want to derail the convo, so I will leave it at that.

Also, the Cardinals consistently spend more on free agents than the Brewers.

By "it doesn't just happen" I mean it's not like overhauling the farm system and playing the kids is guaranteed to be successful. And even if it is, it's still not enough to contend consistently, which is why I mention the Brewers. They're doing what we supposedly want to do and have outperformed us going back to 2016, but still haven't gotten past the NLCS.

Winning the playoffs might be a crapshoot, though I'd say that's kind of irrelevant. Getting there and consistently having the chance isn't a crapshoot. They need a good farm and they should also be able to spend some money on certain players when the time is right. No reason this team can't do both and it's in a good position to do so.

[MrCrowesGarden]

My understanding of their priorities earlier on was something like this, which I was/am fine with given the circumstances:

Reduce payroll this year and maybe next due to decreased tv revenue and recent ticket sales.
Hope to contend with a younger roster, but sink or swim on it.
Keep reliable, paid/controlled players like Helsley in areas where they don't have confidence in their prospects. I think they want their starting prospects to start.
Trade players like Arenado, Fedde and Matz - non-difference makers (offensively in Arenado's case) who don't substantially improve upon what the prospect's ceilings are.


I'm now less confident about that last one and it's the only area that bugs me. I don't see any reason to pin what happens with Fedde and Matz to what happens with Arenado but for some reason they seem to be doing that. Or maybe the market just hasn't materialized.

I don't see them spending any money on the bullpen unless they're spending money in general, which we knew they wouldn't.

2023 was a disaster record wise, but they probably should have won 10 more games.

In 2024, they had a winning record, but won a ton of close games.

In both years, they were around a 76 win team.

In 2025, they need to stop fooling themselves. They aren't going to make the playoffs. Do a full rebuild, strengthen the farm system, and let Walker, Winn, Gorman, Burlseon, Donovan, and Saggese each have 500+ plate appearances. Give McGreevey 20+ starts. Bring Hence and Mathews up at some point this season.

Buying top free agents will never happen here. Our path to winning is through the kids. Draft, develop, and let them play.

Serious as a heart attack here-- what if the kids just suck? What if after 2025 you realize Winn is the only one that's a difference maker?

[Popeye_Card]

I think there's a possibility that the kids aren't great, yet the Cardinals are still good enough to win the division.

Just skimming the Fangraphs depth chart projections for the lineup, they look fairly realistic. A bit bullish on Scott and maybe a bit on Walker. Conversely probably bearish on Gorman and Siani.

Meanwhile the Cubs and Brewers are still +/- 1 win from the Cardinals. I'm certainly not optimistic about this season, and if they trade Arenado, Helsley, etc. this looks a lot different. But I can envision a scenario where a really mediocre Cardinal team gets swept in 2 games in October, because no one else was any good either.