ghostrunner wrote: ↑May 6 26, 8:26 am
I am worried about the timeline on pitching. Wouldn't count on the owners filling out more than a couple sports in the rotation via free agency, and it doesn't seem like anyone in the farm system is an obvious candidate to come up in the next year or two and be effective in the way recent position players have been. I think they did the right thing with all the trades in focusing on pitching, but all the returns are far from locks. Seems like the strategy was more about hoping the quantity yields a couple surprises.
Curious where @phins would project any of the starting prospects we have, as of now - Hence, Mathews, Doyle, Cijntje, Franklin, Dobbins, Fitts, Hansen, Mautz, others I'm forgetting or don't know much about...
I honestly agree they're playing a numbers game and hoping something pops from playing the quantity game.
The prospects above are all massively flawed in various ways. What's wild is there is really one guy who you can confidently say is a starter right now (Dobbins).
Hence is rapidly becoming an NP (Non-Prospect).
Mathews has a real chance to be a solid reliever, but has regressed in control, his stuff has ticked down a bit (AAA ball is something that's becoming a separator for arms nowadays). He's a multi-inning reliever to me at this point unless he finds a release he can consistent locate the fastball with. His prospect star is burning out.
Doyle is legitimately a strong arm. If you're placing a bet on one of the arms being a #3, it's this guy. Fastball location makes his entire profile. A primary two-pitch guy who can't locate the fastball will be a reliever. So his entire development arc is about locating the fastball and finding a secondary he can land in the strike zone as he gets chase with the slider.
Cjinte is a good prospect. He's extremely athletic, and those types of arms tend to have increased chances of improving command with reps. I feel pretty good that he's a BOTR arm at the big league level. He just doesn't have elite stuff on any pitches. Which is wild to think that a guy throwing 97 isn't elite stuff from a starter any longer.
Franklin has exceeded everyone's expectations. Mine included. I used to be into prospects at a borderline obsessive level, and life has tempered the time to do that a bit. If I were still writing about them all the time, I'd say one of the bigger changes in my perspective would be towards pitchers with elite fastballs. I don't really care about college production as much any longer and now care more about the traits and stuff and how they play. I'm not so far down the rabbit hole to be in on the supinator vs. pronator debates, but I buy the impact on hitters and Franklin fits into that. I've read of some already believing Franklin is a better prospect than Doyle (I'm not among them), but my point is we aren't sure yet how far this rabbit hole goes yet. Right now he looks like a multi-inning weapon to me, but if the rapid acceleration of command continues and he finds a way to be consistent with his slider, there's a chance here.
Dobbins is your standard limit hard contact, pump fastballs starting pitcher who gives you five decent innings with more walks than you'd like and little in the way of upside. He's fine as a #5 on a good team.
Hansen was so highly thought of he was not protected for the Rule 5 and wasn't picked. You could put him out there today and he wouldn't embarrass you, but he's also going to strike out five per nine, give up a ton of bombs, and hope the changeup gets enough swing and miss to hold his head above water. He's a nice depth piece to have in the minors to my eyes. FanGraphs thinks highly of him.
Mautz is not a starter. Standard fastball/slider lefty who doesn't throw enough strikes nor have a good enough third pitch. He's most likely the Romero replacement.
Ixan Henderson is a guy with four average pitches and enough command to make it work. You'd hope for a velo boost to become viable.
Cade Crossland is a guy with LH potential and a crossfire look. Most likely he tries to find a route as a reliever. There are no pathways to anything more than a BOTR starter.
Brian Holiday, we will see if he ever gets healthy if there's anything there.
Cade Winquest is a starter potential who was unprotected in the Rule 5, actually picked, then returned. I think he plays up as a reliever, but his stuff can turn over a lineup and he has a plus pitch (hard curve) that plays up and tunnels with his fastball quite well.
Cooper Hjerpe remains a guy with a chance. Stuff has backed up and can't stay healthy.
Yhoiker Fajardo is intriguing and off to a great start.
The approach is push 20 arms up at the same time and develop two of them to pop as high end starters. There isn't a Seth Hernandez, Kade Anderson, Ryan Sloan type in the system, but you hope you find a measure of talent that raises the floor of the rotation. Right now it is glaringly short on talent at the big league level.
