Top 50 Free Agent NL Central comments

[mikechamp]

These comments came from a chat with MLB Trade Rumors' writers Steve Adams and Darragh McDonald that occurred on November 4. (If you like Steve, you can find him on Twitter @Adams_Steve.)

MLBTR's Top 50 Free Agent Predictions post was published earlier this week, so this chat focused on that. I included 2 bonus Q&As: one about CBA uncertainty and another about the trade market. Enjoy!

The link to the entire chat can be found here: https://live.jotcast.com/chat/top-50-fr ... 28442.html
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You guys and The Athletic have a big disparity on Brandon Lowe.

Darragh McDonald
Let's lay out some different predictions on Lowe...

MLBTR: 3/69
Tim Britton, Athletic: 3/63
Keith Law, Athletic, 5/150
Ben Clemens, FanGraphs: 2/38
Kiley McDaniel, ESPN: 4/80

Steve Adams
Keith Law mentioned 5 years at $30MM per, which seems more like what he thinks he'd be comfortable with for Lowe as opposed to what the market will bear. There's just no earthly way Lowe is getting five years at 30 per when he turns 33 next July. I mean, if he does, I will tip my cap to Keith until the end of time, but that's a bananas number.

Love Keith's write-ups and his list is one of my favorites every year, but he tends to do his list more along the lines of "this is what I think this guy's worth", whereas we err toward "this is what we think this guy will be paid".

Darragh McDonald
It does seem like Keith is on an island there. Everyone else views him as a guy worth something like $20MM on a deal around three years.

Steve Adams
Which leads to us trying to convince ourselves to come up to higher numbers on guys we don't think are very good, ha!

Darragh McDonald
Age and health would be the main arguments against Keith there. Lowe is turning 33 soon and has been hurt a lot. Hard to see someone signing him for five years.
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Who is each of your guys' pick to be the most under-the-radar, sneaky good signing of the guys on the Top 50?

Steve Adams
Kris Bubic has No. 3 SP upside and I doubt he's getting multiple years. I'd like that as a buy. Evan Phillips and Jake Bauers are potentially elite at their respective positions but don't have the health history/age (or in Bauers' case, the long track record) to be paid as such. I think they could be really nice values.

Darragh McDonald
Yeah, I already mentioned Jazz. I guess another one could be Luis Robert Jr. Obviously, huge risk, because he often is bad or hurt or both. But it's possible that a relatively modest 14MM investment gets you a borderline MVP guy, then maybe even a QO pick at season's end.
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Man I really like Trevor Rogers, but he has to be the worst #2 free agent in recent memory.

Steve Adams
Ha, no argument here.

Darragh McDonald
Yeah, the market is really lacking a second and third tier.

Steve Adams
Good pitcher -- shouldn't be the second-best in a class. Possible Freddy out-earns him. Or maybe Teruaki Sato.

If he ends up shy of five years, then I'd imagine Suzuki and Arozarena top him, too.

Darragh McDonald
Usually a prediction of around $100MM or so gets you the #10 spot. This year, it's #2.

On last year's Top 50, Ranger Suarez was 10th at 5/115. We put that same 5/115 on Rogers this year and he's second.
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I really liked the predictions on Imanaga to the Giants. Makes a ton of sense. Should the Giants go hard after Itoh and Taira too? Go all in.

Steve Adams
Yeah Imanaga's homer issues mean he basically has to go to a team with a big park. (Well, I suppose he doesn't HAVE to; the Reds keep signing Emilio Pagan to pitch in their bandbox and he's the most homer-prone reliever in MLB)

Either Itoh or Taira works as a fit in San Francisco... but that's true of pretty much every starting pitcher on the list. That team needs so much pitching help.

Darragh McDonald
If the Giants are trying to win in the short term, then sure. It makes sense to spend on pitching. They should act like a big market team now that they have the whole Bay Area as their territory.
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I know y'all predict Bauers is accepting the QO, but suppose another team wants to keep that from happening. How much would another team have to offer to make it not worth taking the QO? I'm thinking 2/40 or 3/60 would be hard to get that much if he regresses much at all in 2027 and retests the market. What are the odds a team would be willing to pay that?

Where are you guys on Bauers if he doesn't accept the QO?

Steve Adams
Bauers to the moon
I love the dude and think he's getting 50MM+ over three years, even with the QO. But that's me personally and the rest of the group -- Tim Dierkes included -- leans toward him accepting.

Darragh McDonald
Yeah, if he gets something close to 20MM annually on a multi-year deal, then he should probably take it. Slightly lesser salary but it's worth it for the extra long-term security.

A bit skeptical he gets there though. We also talked about Bauers a lot on this week's podcast. Anthony mentioned that Bauers is currently a lot like Jurickson Profar from a few years ago. Talented guy, bounced around without success, huge breakout in early 30s. Profar got 3/42 with no QO attached.

Steve Adams
We talked about this on the podcast this morning, too. I think he can make more, but I also understand if, from a purely human perspective, he says to himself: "Hell, I was going to retire not long ago, and now they're offering $23MM+ to keep me on a team that just won the World Series. Sign me the F up and bring me a rally cig."
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Bubic and his agent have to look at Pittsburgh, they have a track record in that park and LHSP (JA Happ, Jose Quintana, Francisco Liriano, Tyler Anderson). Even if only a 1 year prove it deal to increase value and re-group in the market a year later.

Steve Adams
I think Bubic needs to go somewhere that has a more clear runway for him to keep a rotation spot. Great park for him in Pittsburgh, but a starter looking to make good and show he's healthy probably doesn't want to sign with a team that already has Paul Skenes, Braxton Ashcraft, Jared Jones, Mitch Keller and Bubba Chandler locked into spots.

Darragh McDonald
Bubic in Pittsburgh makes sense, sure. I put him on the Rays because they also tend to do a good job of helping guys hit their ceilings.
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Given the possibility - whatever chance you give it - of a salary cap (or stronger penalties) coming into play after 2027, is it possible that teams aim for 1-year deals with free agents when possible? Using an example of Kevin Gausman, who was projected at 2/44, would a team with a payroll that could come into play just prefer to sign him to, let's say, 1/$30M or something if he's amenable and avoid the uncertainty?

Steve Adams
Some clubs might, but that really wasn't the case in the 2021-22 offseason. I think there's a real chance Gausman takes one year and just goes back to Toronto since he loves it there, but I think if he wants two years, he probably has the track record and talent to get there.
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I know you guys didn't necessarily pick many guys to go to Milwaukee other than Bauers, but do you think the Brewers should poke around at anyone on the top 50? Who?

Darragh McDonald
When I was making my team picks, I had them on Foster Griffin for a while. They have lots of good pitching but there's some volatility in there. Injuries, workload concerns after the World Series run, etc. It makes some sense to me to add a reliable innings-eater to help them manage their young arms next year.

Steve Adams
This also came up on the podcast this morning -- plug after plug after plug! -- they just don't need to go that crazy in free agency. The pitching depth is good. They're teeming with quality young hitters and have another big wave on the horizon.

I'm never going to rag on a team for adding more rotation stability, so if they want to add a decent arm for a year or two, go for it. I also am pretty low on Garrett Mitchell, but they have so many OFs that I don't think they need to get a CF (and this year's class of them stinks anyhow).

If they want to be the team to chase Luis Robert Jr.'s upside though, by all means. They're the kind of team that can afford to take the risk. Massively ups their ceiling, and the floor is already so high that they're not really screwed if he's just hurt all year again.
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Could Dustin May just run it back with the Cardinals and hop off the train early if the team still isn't in contention. Cardinals certainly have the payroll flexibility to meet your 2/30 projection.
Any similar pillow contract seekers that the Cardinals could try to maximize for one season?

Steve Adams
I gave them Kris Bubic as basically the Dustin May 2.0 deal. I just don't think Dustin May is especially good, though, so if they're chasing upside I'd rather see them go elsewhere. I was surprised he got $12.5MM last year and surprised Milwaukee gave up such a good prospect for him + Romero.

Darragh McDonald
It seems the Cardinals will probably add another May-like signing to the rotation. It could be re-upping with May. I picked Boyd in the Top 50 but there are other options. Bubic, Nick Martinez.

Bieber?

Steve Adams
If they're going to chase upside, I'd rather see them make a run at Hiromi Itoh or maybe try to rehabilitate Patrick Sandoval if they want to go on the cheaper end of things. (I liked Sandoval a lot pre-surgery ... not so much now, but I also think he'll cost under $10MM, so it's a reasonably priced dice roll.)
Bieber would be interesting, yeah.
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Do you think the Blue Jays would limit themselves to 1 QO free agent given their thin farm? If they signed Suzuki would they be out on Lowe? How many QO free agents is it reasonable to sign for a single team?

Steve Adams
I don't think so. They're in pretty clear win now mode. They just threw $200MM+ at Cease and $64MM at Okamoto last winter. I don't think you take your foot off the gas because you're worried about thinning out your farm.

Darragh McDonald
I think it's possible they want to limit the damage to the farm but, as Steve said, they're in win now mode. There's also a counterargument that, once you've signed one guy, you've already kind of tanked your draft a bit. Why not tank it a bit more? If you're driving a beat-up old car, you probably aren't as careful with it as you would be with a brand-new one.
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Howe about Lowe to the Dodgers?

Steve Adams
Sure. I don't think it's a necessity or anything -- lineup's already stacked. But it's not going to hurt to add a 30-homer 2B, and the contract we (and most others) are predicting is right in the classic Dodgers wheelhouse.
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How difficult was this list to project given the CBA uncertainty?

Steve Adams
We can't know how it'll play out, and the last time there was a lockout, things wound up looking pretty normal, so we just treated it like a normal offseason. You play the hand you're dealt.

Probably helps that we -- certainly I, anyway -- have long been operating under the assumption that games won't be missed. I still think that.

Darragh McDonald
Broadly, we didn't give it too much consideration. The last time a CBA was expiring in 2021-22, players still got paid roughly around expectations in most cases. There were some specific guys where it came up. On Bauers, for instance, I think the lockout maybe makes it slightly more likely he just takes the QO.
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Do you guys see the trade market going bananas since there are so few quality FA?

Steve Adams
I think most modern front offices tend to prefer the trade market in general. It feels like we've seen a lot more swaps of big leaguers in recent years than we might have a decade ago.

Darragh McDonald
We talked about this a bit on the podcast as well. There are arguments in both directions. In theory, sure, the weak FA class could lead to more trades. But at the same time, there are very few rebuilding clubs.

It's also tougher to trade Player X and then say "Well, we can then replace him by signing Player Y in free agency."
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