Mark Buehrle's line for today

Richie Allen · Post by **Richie Allen** » February 28 07, 5:26 pm

lazypenguin wrote:In my opinion, Buehrle is one of the most over rated pitchers in the league. For the amount of praise that this guy seems to get, his numbers don't really support it. His career record is 97-66 with a 3.83 ERA. Medicore at best...

(As a very random side fact, Matt Morris has better career stats than this at 111-77 with a 3.79 ERA)

LP

Matt Morris was once the Ace of our staff and considered one of the top 4 or 5 pitchers in the NL.

a_smith · Post by **a_smith** » February 28 07, 5:26 pm

Richie Allen wrote:I want him! Show me a pitcher (I'm sure they're out there but I think they're rare) that didn't have at least one "off" year.

you are right. no one is perfect. Just as everyone has a bad year.
on the same logic, I can also say that everyone has an on year--which is what Buerhle had two years ago.

Yup pitchers have off years. Pitchers have on years. The problem with buerhle is that he has had 1 great year, 2 good years, 2 average years and 1 crappy year.

His worst three years have come in the last four. He is not trending in the right direction.
It's hard not to see a lot of mulder in him.

lazypenguin · Post by **lazypenguin** » February 28 07, 5:48 pm

Richie Allen wrote:
lazypenguin wrote:In my opinion, Buehrle is one of the most over rated pitchers in the league. For the amount of praise that this guy seems to get, his numbers don't really support it. His career record is 97-66 with a 3.83 ERA. Medicore at best...

(As a very random side fact, Matt Morris has better career stats than this at 111-77 with a 3.79 ERA)

LP
Matt Morris was once the Ace of our staff and considered one of the top 4 or 5 pitchers in the NL.

Yes, and Buehrle was the same for the Sox staff. My point is, people jump all over Buehrle but the same can't be said for Morris.

haltz · Post by **haltz** » February 28 07, 6:11 pm

lazypenguin wrote:Yes, and Buehrle was the same for the Sox staff. My point is, people jump all over Buehrle but the same can't be said for Morris.

Mark Beuhrle has thrown 1380 innings in the last six years with an ERA+ of 121. That's including last years' abysmal performance. 2001/2002 were the last times that Matt Morris had a year like Beuhrle's average year.

Beuhrle scares me as much as the next person, but Barry Zito is a better comp than Matt Morris.

Richie Allen · Post by **Richie Allen** » February 28 07, 6:57 pm

Correct me if I'm wrong but I just don't see that many "guarantees" out there as far as starting pitching goes. And of those that are, how easy are they going to be to acquire?

I think I'd be comfortable enough to take a chance on a 28 year old left-hander that averages around 230 innings a year and a 3.83 ERA. Sure, he doesn't strike a lot of guys out and gives up quite a few hits, ala Mulder, but since when has Mulder become the measuring stick of futility on the mound?

I've never once tried to project a future lineup or pitching staff but it's almost irresistible to think of what we may have if Mulder regains a fair percentage of his old self and the Buehrle deal happens.

RHP Carpenter
LHP Buehrle
RHP Wainwright
LHP Mulder
RHP Reyes

Pretty formidable staff, IMO.

Phyrkrakr · Post by **Phyrkrakr** » February 28 07, 7:02 pm

One spring training start does not a Mulder make...

I'm perfectly content to sit and wait on this guy for at least three months before jumping to conclusions as to whether we should break the bank for him, or avoid him like the plague.

His year last year does bring up some questions, however. The "wait and see" approach seems to be most appropriate.

Ace · Post by **Ace** » February 28 07, 7:45 pm

I've never really thought much of Buehrle. I think its the career .268 BAA.

He will compete for you and give you innings though, can't deny that.

This year will determine a lot for him.

vinsanity · Post by **vinsanity** » February 28 07, 7:51 pm

Define off year?
http://www.baseball-reference.com/c/clemero02.shtml

97 ERA+ is his worst year(As a rook it was 96 but I don't count that). I'd take it.

I hope Buerhle tanks and drives his price way down. I'd love to see him with a 5.5+ ERA and end up like 10-12. Then he'll be fielding offers some where between Marquis and Suppans.

And I'd give the lefty 3/30-36 to see what dunc could do with him.

Edit: In this market. Normally I wouldn't advocate 10 mil per for a guy whose been shakey. But he is a hometown guy and a lefty and the market is crazy.

Ace · Post by **Ace** » February 28 07, 7:55 pm

vinsanity wrote:Define off year?
http://www.baseball-reference.com/c/clemero02.shtml

97 ERA+ is his worst year(As a rook it was 96 but I don't count that). I'd take it.

I hope Buerhle tanks and drives his price way down. I'd love to see him with a 5.5+ ERA and end up like 10-12. Then he'll be fielding offers some where between Marquis and Suppans.

And I'd give the lefty 3/30-36 to see what dunc could do with him.

Edit: In this market. Normally I wouldn't advocate 10 mil per for a guy whose been shakey. But he is a hometown guy and a lefty and the market is crazy.

Buehrle will have to be absolutely terrible this year for him to be making 10 million.a year in the future. Not much of a chance there.

vinsanity · Post by **vinsanity** » February 28 07, 8:07 pm

Ace wrote:Buehrle will have to be absolutely terrible this year for him to be making 10 million.a year in the future. Not much of a chance there.

Well I did range it from 10-12. If he throws up an ERA of 5.5, with the regression last season you think he'll clear 12?

While Marquis has 3 seasons quite a bit worse than Buerhle's, and he's a righty, their best seasons are right in line, and both are trending the wrong way at the same experience (in fact Mark is trending that way a year younger). (if you look at ERA)

He has much better ball control as shown by his BB/9, but each have similar problems with Gopher balls.

Granted this is a half-butted comparison on Fan Graphs.com [url = "here"]http://www.fangraphs.com/comparison.asp ... &type=full[/url] but I don't think Buerhle is 'twice' (14m per) as good as Marquis. So if the sox miss the playoffs and he tanks this year I don't see him clearing 12. And he only does that if someone like NYY or the Mets decide to drastically over pay in dollars or years. I could see NYM offering the guy 5/60-65