Rob Neyer's NL Central comments

[mikechamp]

From an ESPN chat.

Welcome the new ESPN chat record holder, Rob Neyer! His chat went for over 6.5 hours.

Mandatory Linkage: http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/chatESPN?event_id=14877
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best pitching performance you ever watched?

ROB NEYER
In person? I saw Jose Jimenez throw a no-hitter in Phoenix eight years ago, but I think I'd have to go with Roger Clemens' one-hitter in the playoffs against Seattle.
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Among all the other things I need to worry about as a Cubs fan, do I need to worry about Prior's low velocity yesterday? Or will this improve with more work?

ROB NEYER
Obviously I'm pulling for him, as I pull for all players who aren't obviously bad guys. But I'll be surprised if Prior wins 50 more games in his career.
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True or False? Ryan Braun will be the Brewers everyday 3rd baseman by the All-Star break?

ROB NEYER
The All-Star break? How about Memorial Day? Opening Day? If Braun's healthy, he might as well take over right now.
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Josh Hamilton is tearing the cover off of the ball, can he do that in the regular season for the Reds? In that ballpark he could put up some serious numbers.

ROB NEYER
I think it's a lot to expect from a guy who's played the grand total of 23 games above Class A in his career. If Hamilton plays triple-A ball this year and does well, it'll be a huge accomplishment.
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More wins this year? North Side or South Side of Chicago?

ROB NEYER
Good question! Cubs will be better than last year, White Sox probably a tad worse. I sure wish they still played a City Series after the season.
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Any reason why the baseball world has seemingly overlooked what could easily be one of the best teams in the NL, the Milwaukee Brewers? With a healthy Sheets, no doubt they make the playoffs.

ROB NEYER
Oh, I don't think the baseball world's done anything of the sort, Cosmo. So many people are high on the Brewers that I hardly even mention them any more, because there's little new to say. Of course there's *doubt* about them making the playoffs, even with a healthy Ben Sheets. But should we be surprised if they do? Not really so much.
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don't you think curt flood should be in the HOF?

ROB NEYER
Umm, no. Fine player and brave soul, but I believe his impact on the labor issues has been generally overstated. Though I'm willing to be convinced otherwise.
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With so much mediocrity in the division, it seems lots of writers lack the requisite fortitude to venture a firm NL Central pick. Shall we count you among their number?

ROB NEYER
Dude, my middle name is fortitude. Robert Fortitude Neyer, Junior. Here's my firm pick: Cardinals. Or Brewers. But watch out for the Astros.
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Back to the Curt Flood question for a second. Shouldn't there at least be a section for those who have affected baseball, either good or bad? It is a "museum" after all isn't it. Hiding the bad stuff is like ignoring the Holocaust. Guys like Canseco and Pete Rose could be mentioned in that section, along w/ Shoeless Joe, Curt Flood, Marvin Miller...

ROB NEYER
Have you been to Cooperstown? I assure you, there's ample evidence there of all these figures, with the possible exception of Canseco (who is, in the long run, little more than a footnote). Remember, it's the Hall of Fame *and* Museum, and the Museum's the place for figures of historical importances.
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Alright Rob, riddle me this: why do GM's love "veterans?" I think B. Beane is a great GM, but I just don't understand the S. Stewart thing. Is someone like Stewart really any better than Travis Buck? Is it fear based upon the fact that young players are somewhat unknown quantities? It seems if a team has a player that they intend to commit to long-term, you might as well push that player a little, especially position players. I mean, look at the Brewers, the fact that they're even considering Koskie over Braun, I mean, really?

ROB NEYER
Yes, general managers generally have irrational affections for (apparently) washed-up veterans. But when you talk about a prospect like Travis Buck, there is a legitimate concern that if you move him to the majors now -- he's played just half a season above Class A -- you might actually be hindering his development. We just don't much about that jump, and I think caution is in order with a player that young and inexperienced.
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I am pretty sure you have no idea who Josh Hamilton is becuase your answer to his question makes no sense. He can't play AAA for the Reds because he is a Rule 5 draft pick. Just be honest you had no idea who he was right?

ROB NEYER
Ouch. I do know who Josh Hamilton is. I wrote a long note about him in my last book. I did forget, for the moment, that he was a Rule 5 pick. But that doesn't preclude him playing in triple-A this season. Not at all. If the Reds decide they can't carry him on the 25-man roster, he could go to the minors with his old team, or the Reds could offer him back and then trade for him. It's a big wide world out there.
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Should Ron Santo have made it on veterans HOF ballots?

ROB NEYER
Of course. And I feel bad for him. But I feel worse for the deserving candidates on the other ballot, particularly Doug Harvey.
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Best GM is baeball, is it really Billy beane, sometime i feel he is overrated for his coining of tthe term money ball and the popular book, but i think that Jocketty along with Cashman are two of the best

ROB NEYER
Beane didn't coin the term; that was author Michael Lewis. It seems to me that the two best GM's in the game are Beane and Terry Ryan, who have done more with less for a number of years now. Jocketty and Cashman are of course in the mix, too.
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Did you see Stark's article about Harang's Cy Young calibre season last year? Were his stats (led league in wins and Ks) indicative of him being really, really good, or just a fluke?

ROB NEYER
Harang's a good pitcher, and the A's shouldn't have let him get away. That said, both he and Arroyo are likely to decline, and with them the Reds, too.
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It seems the PECOTA projections in the new BP are rather low across the Board. Is that the nature of these projections and we should only use them for comparative purposes or do they really expect Pujols to finish with 38 HRs?

ROB NEYER
Oh, I don't know if the PECOTAs are generally low, but yes 38 homers does seem a bit low for Pujols. All projections do essentially assume some small regression to the mean, and Pujols' performance last season was nearly off the charts. I'd guess he hits 40-45 homers.
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Speaking of GMs, will Jim Hendry ever sign anyone that has a decent on base percentage? Cubs are likely to lead the majors in solo home runs this year...

ROB NEYER
Haven't you heard? The Cubs don't believe in OBP unless the guy getting OB can also steal second, third, and home. Oh wait, that was Dusty Baker. Not sure about Piniella. Seriously, Hendry's not a dumb guy, but he sure does a lot of dumb things.
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Do you think GM Littlefield is doing a good job overall in Pittsburgh considering it's a small market city that will never be able to pay the big $$$ ?

ROB NEYER
I think this year is when we come to a conclusion about Littlefield. He scores big points for getting Jason Bay, but if the Pirates' many young and apparently talented pitchers don't show up in '07, probably it's time for a new direction.
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(This question was asked at the 3 hour, 5 minute mark.)

I think you're going to kill Simmons record... timewise at least.

ROB NEYER
Who is this "Simmons" of whom you speak? I always thought Ted would be in the Hall of Fame if he'd lasted a few years longer as a catcher.
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Any word on progress of the Cubs signing Zambrano long term? Do you think it will top 5y/90M? If so, in total years or total $$?

ROB NEYER
Haven't heard anything, but if Zambrano doesn't eventually top Zito's deal then his agent's not doing his job. Or all the teams suddenly wise up. Which doesn't seem likely.
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Can you comment on the state of the Cardinals rotation as they head into the season to defend the world championship. I'm not too optimistic.

ROB NEYER
I know this: if you run projections for the projected starters -- and I know projections for pitchers are tough, but please bear with me -- you'll find that the Cards do just fine. And remember, it's not like Ponson and Marquis and Mulder were pitching a lot of gems last season. I would argue that when people criticize the Cardinals for what they haven't added this winter, they should instead focus on what the Cardinals didn't bring back.
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Harping back to a topic of a few hours ago in the chat, if the Brewers are able to make the playoffs this year, would Doug Melvin be a new candidate for one of the best GMs in the league? He took over a mess from Dean Taylor and has a deep farm system and a competitive team with a pretty limited payroll.

ROB NEYER
Absolutely. I did leave out some deserving candidates, and Melvin's one of them.
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Would reinstating Pete Rose be good for baseball?

ROB NEYER
Reevaluating the rules that resulted in the expulsion of Pete Rose would be good for baseball. If that leads to his reinstatement, it's okay with me. But don't make a particular exception specifically for this particular crook.
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If the Brewers start Hart in RF, who will they start in LF?

ROB NEYER
Right now they're talking about platooning Mench and Jenkins, the only problem being that neither Mench nor Jenkins are interested in being platooned. They'll figure it out.
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How about taking a Kerry Wood one. Will he get a shot to close?

ROB NEYER
I think it's nearly inevitable.
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Do you see Edwin Encarnacion producing at the level of David Wright at anytime in the future. Last year i bet my friend (a mets fan) that edwin could outproduce wright but then he got injured and the deal was off (probably to my advantage) but what do you think?

ROB NEYER
If he's healthy he's very good with the bat, though not quite as good as Wright (especially if we consider the ballparks). And with the glove he's just a bit short of a disaster, and probably will get moved from third base at some point within the next couple of years.
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I'm really big on Anthony Reyes, do you think he'll have the breakout season many writers are predicting him to have or just be mediocre?

ROB NEYER
I've been a fan since I saw him pitch for Memphis two years ago. I'm guardedly optimistic, but if he's healthy he'll make people forget about Suppan and Weaver.
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So you think David Eckstein's done steroids?

ROB NEYER
I have no reason to think that he has. But why not? Because he's short? Because he plays shortstop? Because he's *gritty*? Those do not seem to me good reasons.
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Rob, is WARP as simple as this: If Eric Patterson's WARP is 5.2 and De Rosa's is 3.2, the cubs win two more games with Patterson in the lineup than they would with De Rosa in the lineup?

ROB NEYER
Yes, it's that simple. The complexity's in the figuring, not the explaining.
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Portland? WE need to get rid of a few teams before we expand. I can understand moving the Royals or the Marlins before we expand. On that note what do you think about contraction? Get rid of 4 teams and play would get better right?

ROB NEYER
Contraction's a non-starter. Yes, there are some markets that cannot reasonably support a team: Kansas City, Milwaukee, Cincinnati, maybe another. But all those cities have recently spent many, many millions of dollars on their ballparks, so the teams aren't going anywhere. If we want emerging markets to have teams, expansion's practically the only option.
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How could you even suggest getting rid of the Reds? I'm actually a Cardinals fan who lives in Cincinnati, but the Reds are the original team. No matter how low Cincinnati's population gets, removing the Reds would be insulting baseball's tradition.

ROB NEYER
I'm not suggesting that at all, Josh. What I'm saying is that the Cincinnati market is not, objectively, appropriate in the 21st century for an MLB team. At least not compared, demographically, to Portland or a few others. Especially if we look a decade or so into the future. Personally, I hope Kansas City and Cincinnati have their teams forever. But the fans have to show up.
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Baseball Prospectus, with its blend of PECOTA and playing time projections, has the Cubs finishing atop the division with the Brewers (albeit at 84 wins). What's your take?

ROB NEYER
Really? I didn't know BP had posted their projections yet. I think 84 wins is reasonable, but I also think it's not likely that 84 wins is good enough for first place this season. Which isn't to say the Cubs' chance of topping 84 is worse than the other teams'. Just seems like a lot to ask from a team that won 66 just a year ago.
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About Prior's horrible velocity yesterday (84-86mph). Does that come with time in spring training esp. for someone coming off of injuries like he has? Do you see him getting his velocity back to mid 90s anytime soon?

ROB NEYER
I think these stories would be sort of funny if they weren't sad. If Prior weren't a former phenom, the Cubs would have released him a long time ago. I'd love to see him pitching well again, but isn't it clear that he's just not the same pitcher, and hasn't been for a long time?
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If Simmons is allowed to say he hates Joe Morgan directly in his columns, you should be allowed to imply it in your chats.

ROB NEYER
I don't hate Joe Morgan. Not even close. I just think he's got a blind spot or two, especially when it comes to post-1980 baseball analysis and pre-1980 Cincinnati Reds. He's great w/Jon Miller on ESPN. As for Simmons, he's a wonderful writer and the rules for him are a bit different than for yours truly. Popularity has its perks. But you knew that already.
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[Leroy]

Among all the other things I need to worry about as a Cubs fan, do I need to worry about Prior's low velocity yesterday? Or will this improve with more work?

ROB NEYER
Obviously I'm pulling for him, as I pull for all players who aren't obviously bad guys. But I'll be surprised if Prior wins 50 more games in his career.
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[StL Dan]

The Cards are his "firm" pick to win the NL Central.



.

[mikechamp]

FWIW, this chat is still going. (Hopefully, it ends soon because I have work I need to focus on.)

[Jmodene]

I loved that "firm" answer, though.

Here's my firm pick: Cardinals. Or Brewers. But watch out for the Astros.

Fascinating to learn that he was at the BOB when JJ pitched his no-hitter. I was there, too, up in the nosebleed seats.[/quote]

[StL Dan]

I loved that "firm" answer, though.

Here's my firm pick: Cardinals. Or Brewers. But watch out for the Astros.

Fascinating to learn that he was at the BOB when JJ pitched his no-hitter. I was there, too, up in the nosebleed seats.

[/quote]

I thought that was interesting, as well.

Didn't Jimenez throw a 1 hitter in his very next start against Johnson and the D-backs that year?

[robbotis]

I loved that "firm" answer, though.

Here's my firm pick: Cardinals. Or Brewers. But watch out for the Astros.

Fascinating to learn that he was at the BOB when JJ pitched his no-hitter. I was there, too, up in the nosebleed seats.

I thought that was interesting, as well.

Didn't Jimenez throw a 1 hitter in his very next start against Johnson and the D-backs that year?[/quote]

Yup, I was at the game. A scorching day game at Busch. I think The Unit threw a 2 hitter that game and lost.

[cardinalkarp]

Yup, I was at the game. A scorching day game at Busch. I think The Unit threw a 2 hitter that game and lost.

Nothing like cooking in the old stadium and watching a total of 3 hits in the ballgame.

[Jocephus]

Yup, I was at the game. A scorching day game at Busch. I think The Unit threw a 2 hitter that game and lost.

Nothing like cooking in the old stadium and watching a total of 3 hits in the ballgame.

*those* kind of games

[mikechamp]

It's finally over!!!! After 6.5+ hours, it's over!!!