A-Rod: Will he opt out?

skmsw · Post by **skmsw** » March 15 07, 5:48 am

Carlos Lee? Age 31, 6 years, $100 million.
Alfonso Soriano? Age 31, 8 years, $130 million.

A-Rod is 31, and is a gold glove caliber shortstop. Remember, he's spent the last three years in a decidedly pitching-friendly park; his next team can count on seeing him get his 3,000th hit, and watch him pursue 3,500 or more. His next team can count on seeing him hit his 600th home run, and watch him pursue his 700th and possibly be chasing the all-time record.

His next team will be getting a gold glove caliber shortstop, who can probably play any position on the field well, except catcher and who can be counted on to get 180+ hits, 35+ homers, and OPS+ in the 140-160 range for the next five years or more.

Teams like the Cubs, Angels, Dodgers, and Blue Jays all have plenty of money and need a shortstop, so there will be bidders playing off of each other in the right price range.

He has three years left on his current deal if he does not opt out, at $27mm each. If he opts out, will he get an AAV of $27mm? Probably not. But I bet he'd get 6 to 8 years, and easily $120 to $150 million -- maybe even as much as $180mm. So if he does not like NY, he might be walking away from a little AAV. But by walking now instead of at the end, his next contract will come when he is 32 instead of 35. He'll still get best-in-game years and dollars. There will be legitimate financial reasons to opt out.

In this market, at his age, and with his talents, his current deal is not the golden handcuffs you might think. He'll have choices, and won't have to walk away from money in order to make them; in fact, considering how many more years he'll add onto the end while still at a younger age when he signs, he might even come out ahead by opting out!

Phyrkrakr · Post by **Phyrkrakr** » March 15 07, 6:54 am

If he doesn't opt out, there's no way a team trades for him with the opt-out clause still in the contract. First, he has a complete no trade clause, so he'd have to approve a deal, which would include whoever he was traded to either picking up all of his options (3 more years at 27M) and/or signing him to an extension. Plus, with the opt out clause, even if he did approve just a standard trade during the season, he could always opt out at the end of this season.

After 2007, the opt out goes away if nobody's making more than him (at least $1M more), but if you're talking this season, you'd have to give up a ton to get him away from the Yankees and you'd have him for half a season if he doesn't like the town.

If he does opt out, he's going to stay as the highest paid player in the game, especially with Boras as his agent. IMO, this is the last thing the Cardinals need. An ego the size of his won't want to take a backseat behind Pujols (see Jeter, Derek) and, although his performance would definitely help out, I don't see Dewitt & Co. signing a check that large for anybody but Albert Pujols.

Fan_In_NY · Post by **Fan_In_NY** » March 15 07, 7:06 am

skmsw wrote:Carlos Lee? Age 31, 6 years, $100 million.
Alfonso Soriano? Age 31, 8 years, $130 million.

A-Rod is 31, and is a gold glove caliber shortstop. Remember, he's spent the last three years in a decidedly pitching-friendly park; his next team can count on seeing him get his 3,000th hit, and watch him pursue 3,500 or more. His next team can count on seeing him hit his 600th home run, and watch him pursue his 700th and possibly be chasing the all-time record.

His next team will be getting a gold glove caliber shortstop, who can probably play any position on the field well, except catcher and who can be counted on to get 180+ hits, 35+ homers, and OPS+ in the 140-160 range for the next five years or more.

Do you really think he is still going to be able to come back and be any better than an average defensive shortstop? He seems like he is continually putting on more weight/muscle and I dont think he will have the range at SS to be anymore than average. The basic range stats show that A-Rod is currently below average at 3rd. Unfortunately I dont have access to more advanced defensive stats while at work, but just from watching A-Rod I would be surprised if they didnt agree with me.