Youngsters...

[Transmogrified Tiger]

In addition to Rasmus I think Garcia and Anderson are starting to get into the possible top of the rotation future star at his position range.

Both are going to need to repeat their Low A success(Anderson will need to add power too) at higher levels to be considered really bona fide. There's a ton of prospects who can put up numbers like that at Low A and are unable to continue to do so at higher levels. Not to say that Garcia or Anderson won't, or are even likely not to, but in terms of placing them among all prospects, they have quite a bit to prove.

[MaskedMan]

The point of a farm system to me is the ability to fill in needs when they are present. The card's farm-system has been able to do that to an extent. Think of players like J-Rod, Wainwright, kinney, Tyler Johnson, Bo Hart , and a lot of the players already named in the thread and you notice that the farm system is doing it's job.

I won't say it's amazingly good because the cardinals have been forced to scour the scrap heap for depth (Weaver, Vizciano....was that his name?) because the farm system couldn't supply it. I mean the fact that we had to sign José Vizcaíno (i looked it up) to cover our backup utility spot over 16 games and 23 abs is a testiment to the fact that our farm system is lacking.

I concede to the experts who say were middle-of-the-pack at best and generally looked down as below-average, but that doesn't mean that our system has been utterly stagnant.

That's only taking the last couple years into account because I don't think that is the case this year with starters, relievers, bench, IF or OF right now. We just had to wait till the system was ready to produe those players and I think we are there this year. I am very comfortable running out...Cate, Cavasos, Narveson, Bozied (not homegrown, I know) Ryan, Rasmus, Skippy, Kiesler (once again not young but a good pickup),Hansen...these guys are ready to get a shot if someone goes down and we need depth without a trade option...I can't remember that being the case in the recent past. I am pretty amped about what I see in ST this year, so far. Hope it keeps up!

[cardfaninfla]

In addition to Rasmus I think Garcia and Anderson are starting to get into the possible top of the rotation future star at his position range.

Both are going to need to repeat their Low A success(Anderson will need to add power too) at higher levels to be considered really bona fide. There's a ton of prospects who can put up numbers like that at Low A and are unable to continue to do so at higher levels. Not to say that Garcia or Anderson won't, or are even likely not to, but in terms of placing them among all prospects, they have quite a bit to prove.

Gee, I guess that is the DUH response of the day. Doesn't EVERY prospect below AAA have to continue to repeat thier success at higher levels to remain prospects. Also there are NOT tons of prospects putting up the numbers that Garcia and Anderson put up last year if you condsider age and experience.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

In addition to Rasmus I think Garcia and Anderson are starting to get into the possible top of the rotation future star at his position range.

Both are going to need to repeat their Low A success(Anderson will need to add power too) at higher levels to be considered really bona fide. There's a ton of prospects who can put up numbers like that at Low A and are unable to continue to do so at higher levels. Not to say that Garcia or Anderson won't, or are even likely not to, but in terms of placing them among all prospects, they have quite a bit to prove.

Gee, I guess that is the DUH response of the day. Doesn't EVERY prospect below AAA have to continue to repeat thier success at higher levels to remain prospects. Also there are NOT tons of prospects putting up the numbers that Garcia and Anderson put up last year if you condsider age and experience.

You missed the point. Yes, there are lots and lots of people who put up good numbers in Low A, even when you account for the context of the player. (Exhibit A Exhibit B) They even pop up on BA's Top 100 sometimes. The point is that ordaining them to be cream of the crop("future star at his position") this soon is premature because so many people have that type of success at that low level.

Players like Dopirak can put up otherworldly numbers(at age 20) at Low A, but his strikeouts became a problem and he showed an inability to handle more advanced pitching. Now odds are probably against him being a major league hitter. Patterson also was magnificently productive at Low A(at second base too), but there's been some attrition in his numbers as he advanced through the system, and now he doesn't project to be the next Chase Utley like his Peoria numbers might've indicated.

The same holds true for Anderson and Garcia. Anderson did a great job getting on base for the Swing, but his terrible IsoP doesn't bode well for him to get more XBH against more advanced pitching, which would preclude him from being near the top of the catching ranks offensively. Likewise, Garcia was magnificent in Low A, but in the same number of innings at A+ his K rate dipped significantly and he was more hittable to the point his performance was merely "good". Pitchers who find themselves among the best in baseball miss a lot more bats than that against much better hitters. Obviously in both these cases there's plenty of time to rectify any shortcomings, but the point remains.

I don't want to make it sound like I'm just trying to bring down any positive vibes about the Cards prospects out of jealousy, the same point applies to Cubs prospects like Tyler Colvin or Mark Pawelek, or Donald Veal(circa last year). I guess because I've seen first hand the danger of forecasting too far ahead(Choi/Hill/Montanez/Teixeira, infield of champions) it's a point of emphasis for me.

[JL21]

I don't want to make it sound like I'm just trying to bring down any positive vibes about the Cards prospects out of jealousy, the same point applies to Cubs prospects like Tyler Colvin or Mark Pawelek, or Donald Veal(circa last year). I guess because I've seen first half the danger of forecasting too far ahead(Choi/Hill/Montanez/Teixeira, infield of champions) it's a point of emphasis for me.

Actually, the first thing I thought (and please, don't take this the wrong way) is that if anybody would know about the fragility of prospects, it'd be a Cub fan. Choi, Hill, don't forget Angel Guzman, and even Mark Prior...

[cardfaninfla]

In addition to Rasmus I think Garcia and Anderson are starting to get into the possible top of the rotation future star at his position range.

Both are going to need to repeat their Low A success(Anderson will need to add power too) at higher levels to be considered really bona fide. There's a ton of prospects who can put up numbers like that at Low A and are unable to continue to do so at higher levels. Not to say that Garcia or Anderson won't, or are even likely not to, but in terms of placing them among all prospects, they have quite a bit to prove.

Gee, I guess that is the DUH response of the day. Doesn't EVERY prospect below AAA have to continue to repeat thier success at higher levels to remain prospects. Also there are NOT tons of prospects putting up the numbers that Garcia and Anderson put up last year if you condsider age and experience.

You missed the point. Yes, there are lots and lots of people who put up good numbers in Low A, even when you account for the context of the player. (Exhibit A Exhibit B) They even pop up on BA's Top 100 sometimes. The point is that ordaining them to be cream of the crop("future star at his position") this soon is premature because so many people have that type of success at that low level.

Players like Dopirak can put up otherworldly numbers(at age 20) at Low A, but his strikeouts became a problem and he showed an inability to handle more advanced pitching. Now odds are probably against him being a major league hitter. Patterson also was magnificently productive at Low A(at second base too), but there's been some attrition in his numbers as he advanced through the system, and now he doesn't project to be the next Chase Utley like his Peoria numbers might've indicated.

The same holds true for Anderson and Garcia. Anderson did a great job getting on base for the Swing, but his terrible IsoP doesn't bode well for him to get more XBH against more advanced pitching, which would preclude him from being near the top of the catching ranks offensively. Likewise, Garcia was magnificent in Low A, but in the same number of innings at A+ his K rate dipped significantly and he was more hittable to the point his performance was merely "good". Pitchers who find themselves among the best in baseball miss a lot more bats than that against much better hitters. Obviously in both these cases there's plenty of time to rectify any shortcomings, but the point remains.

I don't want to make it sound like I'm just trying to bring down any positive vibes about the Cards prospects out of jealousy, the same point applies to Cubs prospects like Tyler Colvin or Mark Pawelek, or Donald Veal(circa last year). I guess because I've seen first hand the danger of forecasting too far ahead(Choi/Hill/Montanez/Teixeira, infield of champions) it's a point of emphasis for me.

No I think you missed the point. Of COURSE every guy labled as a possible top of the rotation or possible all star at his position HAS to continue to put up numbers as he advances. The POINT is that when these lists are being made and guys are getting projected based on performance and tools, Garcia and Anderson are closing in on getting that type of recognition. If they regress this year then they will move away from that particular list.

Saying that a guy will have to repeat his numbers at a higher level to remain an elite prospect is pretty obvious. If every prospect had to show 3 or 4 years of solid play beofre they could make a top 50 prospect in all of baseball list there wouldn't be any young players on the list would there.

[fewgoodcards]

You missed the point. Yes, there are lots and lots of people who put up good numbers in Low A, even when you account for the context of the player. (Exhibit A Exhibit B) They even pop up on BA's Top 100 sometimes. The point is that ordaining them to be cream of the crop("future star at his position") this soon is premature because so many people have that type of success at that low level.

Players like Dopirak can put up otherworldly numbers(at age 20) at Low A, but his strikeouts became a problem and he showed an inability to handle more advanced pitching. Now odds are probably against him being a major league hitter. Patterson also was magnificently productive at Low A(at second base too), but there's been some attrition in his numbers as he advanced through the system, and now he doesn't project to be the next Chase Utley like his Peoria numbers might've indicated.

The same holds true for Anderson and Garcia. Anderson did a great job getting on base for the Swing, but his terrible IsoP doesn't bode well for him to get more XBH against more advanced pitching, which would preclude him from being near the top of the catching ranks offensively. Likewise, Garcia was magnificent in Low A, but in the same number of innings at A+ his K rate dipped significantly and he was more hittable to the point his performance was merely "good". Pitchers who find themselves among the best in baseball miss a lot more bats than that against much better hitters. Obviously in both these cases there's plenty of time to rectify any shortcomings, but the point remains.

I don't want to make it sound like I'm just trying to bring down any positive vibes about the Cards prospects out of jealousy, the same point applies to Cubs prospects like Tyler Colvin or Mark Pawelek, or Donald Veal(circa last year). I guess because I've seen first hand the danger of forecasting too far ahead(Choi/Hill/Montanez/Teixeira, infield of champions) it's a point of emphasis for me.

first off, on garcia. he was 19 last year and making his pro debut, he had never even pitched in rookie ball. how many guys in that situation even make it to high-A ball in their first year? i think its a little unreasonable to expect him to dominate a level no one even expected him to pitch at going into the season.

now on bryan anderson. he did hit 29 doubles last year. you throw up isolated power numbers like they are the sole determinant or whether or not a prospect will have power in the future. he was only a teenager, don't you think as he matures some of those doubles will turn into homers? i think that is a reasonable expectation. plus he slugged .513 in rookie ball. i think that shows a little power potential.

and finally, i don't see how you rip on garcia for not dominating high-A ball when mark pawelek, who is the same age as garcia, had to repeat short season ball and his hit rate went up 2.7 per 9 and his strikeout rate went down 4 per 9. not exactly encouraging. in your words "shouldn't a pitcher miss a lot more bats than that?"

[valley_card22]

Great Prospect=Guy who hasnt done it in the big leagues

Look at most MLB teams. Who really has "home grown" talent. The Twins and Indinans come to mind, but where has that got them? Atlanta has a few guys who are on the rise, but your minor league system IMO but do these things year in and out:

1. Produce 1 big leaguer who can contribute
2. Produce at least 2 guys that could be traded for a big leaguer

Every 3 years:

1. At least 1 every day player.
2. At least 5 guys who can be traded for big league help

Every 5 years:

1. A solid foundation player. Our system has produced Pujols, Molina, Wainwright (via trade) and Reyes....Those are core guys. Add Rasmus to that list in 4 years. Maybe even Duncan.

[fewgoodcards]

Look at most MLB teams. Who really has "home grown" talent. The Twins and Indinans come to mind, but where has that got them?

it has put the twins in the playoffs 4 of the past 5 years with one of the lowest payrolls in baseball.

the marlins won the world series in 2003 with a lot of guys they brought to the bigs: josh beckett, dontrelle willis, mike lowell, derrick lee, miguel cabrera, alex gonzalez, luis castillo and i'm sure i'm missing a few others.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

No I think you missed the point. Of COURSE every guy labled as a possible top of the rotation or possible all star at his position HAS to continue to put up numbers as he advances. The POINT is that when these lists are being made and guys are getting projected based on performance and tools, Garcia and Anderson are closing in on getting that type of recognition. If they regress this year then they will move away from that particular list.

Saying that a guy will have to repeat his numbers at a higher level to remain an elite prospect is pretty obvious. If every prospect had to show 3 or 4 years of solid play beofre they could make a top 50 prospect in all of baseball list there wouldn't be any young players on the list would there.

You're repeating yourself. To reiterate:

Yes, there are lots and lots of people who put up good numbers in Low A, even when you account for the context of the player. (Exhibit A Exhibit B) They even pop up on BA's Top 100 sometimes. The point is that ordaining them to be cream of the crop("future star at his position") this soon is premature because so many people have that type of success at that low level.

It's not the circular logic you're suggesting.

irst off, on garcia. he was 19 last year and making his pro debut, he had never even pitched in rookie ball. how many guys in that situation even make it to high-A ball in their first year? i think its a little unreasonable to expect him to dominate a level no one even expected him to pitch at going into the season.

now on bryan anderson. he did hit 29 doubles last year. you throw up isolated power numbers like they are the sole determinant or whether or not a prospect will have power in the future. he was only a teenager, don't you think as he matures some of those doubles will turn into homers? i think that is a reasonable expectation. plus he slugged .513 in rookie ball. i think that shows a little power potential.

and finally, i don't see how you rip on garcia for not dominating high-A ball when mark pawelek, who is the same age as garcia, had to repeat short season ball and his hit rate went up 2.7 per 9 and his strikeout rate went down 4 per 9. not exactly encouraging. in your words "shouldn't a pitcher miss a lot more bats than that?"

Not sure what you're going for here. I never tried to insinuate that Garcia and Anderson were doomed, and I addressed their potential and shortcomings in previous posts.

And that last paragraph about Pawelek doesn't make sense. It's like you saw his name in my post and thought I was saying he was the same/better player as Garcia.