My Campaign for J-Rod...

GOOCH · Post by **GOOCH** » March 17 07, 12:31 am

Sabre guys all agree: the most important, by far, of all the offensive baseball skills is the ability to get on base. In that respect, John Rodrieguez clearly shines above all his competitors:

In a 102 games last season John not only batted .300, but had an OBP of:
.374. J-Rod was bested only by the man himself, Albert Pujols, for OBP on the entire roster last season.

What's notable about that number is not how high it is, but that it is actually 4 points lower than his career OBP (.378). John's slugging percentage suffered last season (.432)...but he also was nursing an injury. But even with that low slug, his OPS was .798...about 40 points higher than Juan Encarnacion's the starting right fielder (oh, btw, Juan only slugged .443...and before you attribute that to his wrist injury, remember that Juan's career Slug is .441). And remember, OPS inaccurately weights OBP & SLUG the same. The agreed upon weight for the two figures (at least that I've seen recently) was placed at .80 / .20. Given that figure, J-Rod had a *much* better season than Juan Encarnacion:

*Gooch's Weighted OPS = {[8(OBP*10) + 2(SLUG*10)] / 10}1000

Note, you can evaluate this figure much as you would a batting average...

JR GWOPS: .386
JEN GWOPS: .342

J-Rod was second of the team's outfielders last year (min 100 ab/s):

Code: Select all

CD   GWOPS:  .408
JR   GWOPS:  .386
JED  GWOPS:  .374
JEN  GWOPS:  .342
ST   GWOPS:  .338
PT   GWOPS:  .330

Exactly why did So Taguchi get 100 more ab's than J-Rod?

And what is he doing this spring?

In 22 ab's J-Rod is hitting .409 with a slug of .591. IOW, his OPS is over a 1.0 and his GWOPS is the highest on the Cardinal's team (min 10 ab's).

And J-Rod is the man out to make this team? Not only should he make the team, he should be the starting Right Fielder. I don't care what his defense looks like. D.GOOCH

Post by **Bo Hart** » March 17 07, 12:51 am

I totally agree.

Yes, Gooch is much better defensively than J-Rod... but there's also one thing you're leaving out: Gooch can play center field (and effectively).

I would love to cut Gooch. I really don't like the guy. I'd love to see an outfield of:

LF - Duncan
CF - Edmonds
RF - Encarnacion / Rodriguez platoon

Backup - Schumaker

It's not so much that I think Schumaker has a high ceiling, but more of the fact that I think Taguchi sucks.

Then again, that may present a problem: that would be four lefty outfielders. We know that J-Rod and Duncan struggle against lefties. Maybe we'd see a lot of time for Spiezio out in left and Encarnacion out there in right?

I don't really know what to think. Unfortunately I don't think there is any chance that Taguchi isn't on the roster this year...

I completely agree with the notion that Rodriguez's ability to get on base definitely outweighs his poor fundamentals on the bases / in the field, but the captain of the ship (Tony) clearly does not agree with that line of thinking.

haltz · Post by **haltz** » March 17 07, 1:06 am

Well, it is nice that JRod is making his case this spring. That he has shown up in reportedly better shape and that his defense is reportedly better. For whatever that's all worth.

Ignoring the facts that J-Rod has been placed in favorable matchups, and that Juan numbers have gained through playing full-time, as well as the drop off that PECOTA predicts for Juan, let's just assume that their production and defense remain relatively constant from last year.

According to VORP, Rodriguez was producing another run or so offensively every ten games over Juan last year. That's pretty significant, and if maintained over 162 games that's almost two wins. However, En'cion's defense is probably *that much better* that it comes out to a wash. According to PMR and Chris Dial, Juan was one of the top, or the top, right-fielders in the league. Unfortunately these numbers aren't available for J-Rod as he just doesn't have enough time logged out there, and you'd have sample size issues anyway I think. 40 games in left or so last year, I believe.

What Encarnacion brings to the club is the appropriate handedness and defensive skills to mitigate the shortcomings of Jimmy (days off, preferably against lefties) and Duncan (DEFENSE, and platoon issues). Of course, he can only play one spot at once.

That's really not the issue though I think. The issue isn't John versus Juan, it's Rodriguez versus Taguchi. Especially as we have seen Wilson get looks in CF lately. If you have Wilson and Encarnacion that can both play CF in a pinch, then I don't see a whole lot of reason to keep So around considering his offense -- granted Wilson's defense pales to Taguchi's, however, if either So or Wilson need to be out in CF for any extended period of time, the club is in a bit of trouble anyhow. Wilson seems just as affable anyway.

I would think that the best case scenario would be for Rodriguez to certainly be on the team, and between OF's of Wilson/Encarnacion/J-Rod, Duncan/Edmonds/J-Rod, (Speizio sometimes, and it becomes more interesting if Marrero can make the club at some point) and other permutations that there should be plenty of AB's for everyone.

It'll be interesting to see what happens with the roster space when Edmonds and Encarnacion are back.

And, here are the wOBA Cardinals scores that I could dig up:

Code: Select all

Pujols     .436
Duncan     .403
Rolen      .382
Spiezio    .375
Rodriguez  .355
Edmonds    .348
En'cion    .333
Eckstein   .327
Taguchi    .321
Wilson     .323
Kennedy    .312
Miles      .295
Bennett    .285
Molina     .265

thrill · Post by **thrill** » March 17 07, 2:43 am

You just gotta love not making outs.

jim · Post by **jim** » March 17 07, 9:36 am

Will there be room?

I doubt very seriously the Cards will carry 6 OF'ers. Edmonds, Encarnacion, and Duncan are pretty much locks. That leaves Tags, Wilson, JRod for 2 other spots. I would love to have the left handed bat on the bench, but TLR may want the defense and the abilility to cherry pick Duncan's opportunities against lefties. Add to that the need for regular rest for Edmonds, and he may very well feel better about Tags handling CF duties on a fairly regular basis.

I'm going to ramble on here, I have no idea where my thought process will take me, so bear with me here....

Let's assume it's late April and all are healthy. Let's go with JRod and Wilson as our bench OF'ers.

VS. LHP we could start Wilson, Encarnacion, and Duncan/Edmonds. We would then have Duncan/Edmonds and JRod on the bench, two lefties. The Cons of that scenario that I see are the ability of teams with 2+ lefties in the pen to "outthink" you. You could end up at a critical moment in a PH scenario, call one of those guys up, and end up getting slapped in the face as Mr. Loogy comes trotting out. Then, you are forced to either take it like a man or call that hitter back, forcing you to use 2 players With the above, you are pretty much forced to go with Spiezio in that situation, because like I just outlined you may have to go with him to begin with. Not a doomsday scenario by any stretch, but it does seem like you are hamstrung a little. If you get to a point where the opponents lefties are used up, you have your weapon loaded and ready to go. The idea of having Duncan/Edmonds + JRod, plus Spiezio on the bench to face a right hander would be nice.

VS RHP we start Duncan/Edmonds/Encarnacion with JRod and Wilson on the bench. We pretty much have a balanced bench, 2 switch hitters and a lefty plus a righty. TLR can handle that situation just fine.

If Duncan is in the game and Edmonds not (vs LHP), you have used up your defensive replacment by starting him (Wilson). TLR doesn't like to use Edmonds in that role, when Jimmy Ballgame gets the day off he gets the day off.... period. I guess in an emergency he could plead with him, but in general if you had Duncan/Enc/Wilson starting you have no defensive replacment.

----
Now, lets look at it with Tags on the bench instead of JRod.

vs LHP you can start a right handed hitting outfield. Tags, Wilson, and Encarnacion. Tags can play CF, keeping Juan in RF. That outfield defensively is better than the Duncan/Enc in CF/Wilson arrangement, but probably not as good as the Wilson/Edmond/Encarnacion arrangement. On the bench, your left handers are Miles and Spiezio. Neither require burning two players during that critical PH spot, as they both just flip over to the other side. You don't really need a defensive replacement with those starters.

vs RHP you start Dunc/Edmonds/Encarnacion with Wilson and Tags on the bench. Tags is obviously your late inning defensive replacment, and you still have Spiezio and Miles on the bench to hit from the left side.

---

Ok, ramble kind of done. I see where having Tags on the team over JRod gives you more flexibility versus LHP, maybe the same or a tick less vs RHP. Defensively you lose out some, Tags can play CF and come in late innings to sub for Duncan. There is some value in that. Is it enough to compensate for the difference at the plate between Tags and JRod? Probably not, but maybe it helps close the gap.

I'm a firm believer in stats, but I also know that sometimes you have to look just a little deeper which is what I attempted to do. I don't think I've convinced myself that Tags should stay and JRod should go, but at least maybe I threw out a nugget or two as to why it may happen.

Hopefully some of this made sense. Feel free to shoot holes in it, that's what baseball fans do.

clement · Post by **clement** » March 17 07, 10:09 am

There are a couple of things that haven't been mentioned. One is just a reality that can't be ignored. Wilson and Taguchi are under contract and cutting them loose is essentially paying them money to probably go elsewhere. Rodriguez still has options. That said, if either Taguchi or Wilson continue to hit .150 once the season gets going, I don't imagine either of them will be around for too long, especially if Rodriguez continues to hit .300+ and get on base at his high rate.

There are a lot of things that you need from a bench player and it's not always just about getting on base. Taguchi has shown to be very adept at bunting, for example, which for someone like Tony, has to have some value. He's also a good person for pinch-running duties. The defense issue has already been mentioned a few times by others.

The good news for Rodriguez (bad news for Cardinals) is that he is almost assured of being on the opening day roster. He'll get a pretty good opportunity to show his value and if he does, it will make it harder for Tony to send him down for any extended amount of time, especially if Wilson and/or Taguchi are Roger Cedenoing up the place.

p.s. Am I right in saying that Taguchi is out of options? I never know how it works with these Japanese players. Also, I guess it's possible that So might accept an assignment to AAA if Tony asked him.

Fat Strat · Post by **Fat Strat** » March 17 07, 11:49 am

I think that JRod will stick with the team in April until the OF'ers healthy. If JRod could just make himself into a reliable defender, he would be a lock for any team's bench. He's got a good skillset for a part-time or platoon-level player. He can be an impact player for short stretches when his bat is going.

I would love to see JRod earn his way on and push Taguchi out. He showed lapses offensively and defensively '06, and at his age, those aren't hiccups. They are red flags. I suspect that '07 will be a tougher year for Taguchi than '06 and that at some point in the season, La Russa will be forced to consider sending him down.

GOOCH · Post by **GOOCH** » March 17 07, 12:35 pm

I've seen it mentioned here a couple of times that there's an argument for Wilson or Taguchi related to how much we're paying them. There's not. Those are sunk costs. You can't correct a mistake (paying a bad player too much money) by making another mistake (playing that player in front of a better and more productive player). You have to pay guranteed money no matter how much the guy plays, you might as well play the guy comisserate with his ability...and not based on how much you're paying him. D.GOOCH

Post by **Radbird** » March 17 07, 12:35 pm

JRod just needs to keep putting up numbers that will make the decision an easy one for TLR.

jim · Post by **jim** » March 17 07, 2:31 pm

GOOCH wrote:I've seen it mentioned here a couple of times that there's an argument for Wilson or Taguchi related to how much we're paying them. There's not. Those are sunk costs. You can't correct a mistake (paying a bad player too much money) by making another mistake (playing that player in front of a better and more productive player). You have to pay guranteed money no matter how much the guy plays, you might as well play the guy comisserate with his ability...and now based on how much you're paying him. D.GOOCH

Agree in principal, but sometimes in practice it does make a difference. Although none of those contracts should be enough to really stop them from dumping them if they aren't working out. Spivey was in at over $1M last year.