vh2k6 wrote:if soriano hits 45 homers and manages 95 RBI out of the leadoff spot, he will have an OBP >>>> 315
I dunno bout >>>> 315...seeing as how is career is 325 with 340 from the leadoff spot.
But for arguments sake. Remember the last leadoff guy that was supposed to jump start the offense?
He put up a .350 OBP from leadoff and a .728 OPS. Soooooooo Unless Soriano blasts 80 solo HR's he's not gonna do that great.
Who are you talking about? Pierre? Because Pierre didn't even come close to a .350 OBP. He's just awful at baseball.
His Career OBP batting leadoff is .350....sorry misleading. He put up a 330. Soriano is a career .325 and last yera accounted for what, 1/3 of his games at leadoff and he had an OBP of .350 - a career year.
Is the spike in OBP from batting position or because of coincidence? All I'm sayin is expect a lot of K's, A good Number of homers and quite few SB attempts. Don't expect a monster leadoff hitter.
vh2k6 wrote:if soriano hits 45 homers and manages 95 RBI out of the leadoff spot, he will have an OBP >>>> 315
I dunno bout >>>> 315...seeing as how is career is 325 with 340 from the leadoff spot.
But for arguments sake. Remember the last leadoff guy that was supposed to jump start the offense?
He put up a .350 OBP from leadoff and a .728 OPS. Soooooooo Unless Soriano blasts 80 solo HR's he's not gonna do that great.
Who are you talking about? Pierre? Because Pierre didn't even come close to a .350 OBP. He's just awful at baseball.
His Career OBP batting leadoff is .350....sorry misleading. He put up a 330. Soriano is a career .325 and last yera accounted for what, 1/3 of his games at leadoff and he had an OBP of .350 - a career year.
Is the spike in OBP from batting position or because of coincidence? All I'm sayin is expect a lot of K's, A good Number of homers and quite few SB attempts. Don't expect a monster leadoff hitter.
Even without the career year his OBP is still higher than his career numbers(and significantly better than the rest of the spots in the order since his leadoff numbers are included in his career numbers). As far as expectations go, I don't think the .290/.340/.540 I posited would qualify as monstrous, but I like it from him nonetheless.
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:Even without the career year his OBP is still higher than his career numbers(and significantly better than the rest of the spots in the order since his leadoff numbers are included in his career numbers). As far as expectations go, I don't think the .290/.340/.540 I posited would qualify as monstrous, but I like it from him nonetheless.
He hit .3698 OBP this year at leadoff. That accounts for 25% of his starts at second (about 131/440). That means his OBP at leadoff before this season was about .330. If you figure that 1/4 of his AB's leading came this season than you can do .330*3 = .99 Then add this season (the final fourth) at .370. Then divide it by fourth and you get exactly .340 (his career OBP leading off). It's really simplified but it's a pretty good estimate.
I don't think .340 is out of reach or unreasonable. But I think .325 or .330 is much more likely. Point being he's not gonna get OB at an insane clip and there won't be many players on when he does hit (usually) so his help towards the offense isn't worth anywhere near 16 Million. At least not in the lead off spot. But if he was batting second or fourth and putting up similar Slugging numbers he's hitting with Rameriz and Lee and driving in guys who get OB at a higher clip.
vinsanity wrote:But for arguments sake. Remember the last leadoff guy that was supposed to jump start the offense?
The mainstream may have thought Pierre was a good pickup but I personally felt it was stupid; and I guarantee you I was not even close to being alone in that thought.
To put it simply, he's leaps and bounds better than Pierre.
I'll just reiterate. For all the bluster over Pierre, he had a VORP of 18.0 last year. And he was a significant upgrade over the mess they had in CF in 2005. Was he great? No. Was it a good trade? Not really, no. But he did contribute.
He wasn't some gigantic albatross around the neck of the Cubs, certainly no more than the ridiculously poor production they got out of Lee's replacements, or the ridiculously poor production that came out of Rony Cedeño.
And yes- Soriano is an upgrade. But if he's the career average Soriano- or worse, the 2005 Soriano- then he ranges from a 1-2 win upgrade.
Mephistopheles wrote:the problem is that Corey Patterson had a VORP of 23.
And the year before, it was something like -10. Does anyone really think that Patterson would've had that VORP of 23 playing for the Cubs in 2006? I don't.
